How many goals does the market expect in this match?
There's plenty of info around on how one might come up with a calculation as to how many goals might be scored in a given match - we often see them offered on this forum eg 'City v United 2.26' but could we look at a market and come up with a calculation that indicates what the market's number is ?- other than 'somewhere between 2 & 3'
Yes, it's possible, by reversing the equations.
The markets (1) match odds and (2) goals markets, in particular the main line O/U 2.5,
are created by the goal expectations of the 2 teams, GFAV and GDOG (GE of the favourite and dog resp.)
ie MO,2.5 = f (GFAV, GDOG)
With a bit of snazzy maths, you can find the goal expectations of the 2 teams from the markets:
GFAV, GDOG = f (MO,2.5)
then the total match goals GTOT=GFAV+GDOG
You can come up with some very complex solutions to this problem for mega accuracy, but for GTOT, there's a simplified linear relationship that gives a surprisingly accurate answer.
Take the price of the Favourite (FAV), and Under 2.5 (U2.5); the match goal expectancy GTOT is then given by:
GTOT = 0.777*U2.5 – 0.048*FAV + 1.2
The markets (1) match odds and (2) goals markets, in particular the main line O/U 2.5,
are created by the goal expectations of the 2 teams, GFAV and GDOG (GE of the favourite and dog resp.)
ie MO,2.5 = f (GFAV, GDOG)
With a bit of snazzy maths, you can find the goal expectations of the 2 teams from the markets:
GFAV, GDOG = f (MO,2.5)
then the total match goals GTOT=GFAV+GDOG
You can come up with some very complex solutions to this problem for mega accuracy, but for GTOT, there's a simplified linear relationship that gives a surprisingly accurate answer.
Take the price of the Favourite (FAV), and Under 2.5 (U2.5); the match goal expectancy GTOT is then given by:
GTOT = 0.777*U2.5 – 0.048*FAV + 1.2