Am I on the right track?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

At the outset, I've done virtually no football trading so going to map out below what I 'think' I should do but any guidance / feedback from others would be helpful.

1. Work my way through the football trading videos on the Bet Angel YouTube channel
2. Focus on one league initially - in my case, the Premiership
3. Currently looking at using SoccerStats.com as a source for data
4. Focus on one market - at this stage, Over / Under 2.5 goals market

I don't, at the moment, have Sky Sports at home as it's not been required and long term, it's something I will get, but is it possible to start off using the stats on Flashscores etc? My thinking being that if I can do some research that may (or may not!) show that X shots on target result in Y goals.

To add, are there any sites that that record the historical in play stats per game i.e. Man Utd V Leicester in 2017 resulted in X shots on target etc?

Many thanks,

Iambic
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

To win on Betfair you'll need some kind of edge over the market, where's that coming from? I'd be very surprised if you find an edge using any publicly available stats and without pictures plus a good knowledge of how the markets react over time (think psychoff) I'm not sure what edge you're trying to exploit or if you're gambling on stats or trading.
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Thanks for taking the time to reply, Spreadbettting.

This may be naive but if the pre-match analysis suggests that on average the goals are scored after, say, 25 minutes, to take the relevant position in the OU 2.5 market and then take advantage of any time decay.

IE - enter a kick off, if backed the unders and no goals after 15 mins, then exit.

Clearly, I need to test this out and be totally ruthless with my entry / exit points and staking but just trying to explore possible angles.

Your point about how the markets react is spot on and live pictures are going to be a big part of that i.e. sitting and observing how prices move.

Iambic.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

I've never really been a big fan of mixing stats based entries with trading as generally people give away any value when they exit, as they're usually keen to lock in a profit.

I play some of the goal markets to generate comms and only play at dead spots in the market, goals can come and go anytime in a game to make up that average. Unless you're playing every match I'd find it a very risky strategy to play to averages. Plus you say you're taking advantage of the time decay but I can't see how, if the price is out of line with your stats to start with why is it going to correct in play for you to benefit on exiting at 15 minutes. It'll more likely just carry on with the expected decay from it's starting point and always be value to back according to your stats.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

iambic_pentameter wrote:
Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:59 pm
At the outset, I've done virtually no football trading so going to map out below what I 'think' I should do but any guidance / feedback from others would be helpful.

1. Work my way through the football trading videos on the Bet Angel YouTube channel
2. Focus on one league initially - in my case, the Premiership
3. Currently looking at using SoccerStats.com as a source for data
4. Focus on one market - at this stage, Over / Under 2.5 goals market

I don't, at the moment, have Sky Sports at home as it's not been required and long term, it's something I will get, but is it possible to start off using the stats on Flashscores etc? My thinking being that if I can do some research that may (or may not!) show that X shots on target result in Y goals.

To add, are there any sites that that record the historical in play stats per game i.e. Man Utd V Leicester in 2017 resulted in X shots on target etc?

Many thanks,

Iambic
If you have the time, then anything is possible.

The highlighted bit is an area worth pursuing. SOT/Corners/SOFFT can be used to create a "true" scoreline and a new league table.

Note players that perform well. (Eg: Luke Shaw was the most outstanding player for Man Utd in their first 3 games. Resulted in renewed interest from G.Southgate, although did explain Man Utd poor start too)

If you try it on the big leagues in Europe, you may spot an edge before others do. In some cases the odds may be out of line.
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

I found a couple of small in-play football edges and am looking for more. My approach is not based on stats / form, as there are better data analysts out there.

Instead, it's based on finding situations where people cannot assess true odds correctly, so there's a chance to enter the market at value prices which shortly afterwards correct.

Think the last few minutes of a match where the heavy favourite is not winning. Or perhaps any game after a goal has been scored or a red card produced.

In fact, it's plain to see how not even bookies and their analysts know for sure. For example, observe B365 odds just after a goal is scored. You'll see they usually correct them a few times in the 30-60secs after a goal. It's a clear sign of a situation where value can be found, if you learn to spot it.

Another approach can be, as spreadbetting mentioned, to follow Psychoff's example and just watch tons of matches, developing a feel for the flow of the match and observe how Betfair odds behave. If you choose this route, you can take advantage of plenty of free streams offered by Betfair and B365.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

I take the same view , northbound, you'll never have enough stats to compete especially if you rely on the publicly available ones. Much better to observe how markets react and try to take advantage of the chaos that occurs at certain points in the markets. Once you've honed those techniques you can pretty much use them on any match, assuming enough liquidity, the same way few of us have any idea about what a horse's odds should be but we're still able to profit from trading them.
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Wearthefoxhat, Northbound & Spreadbetting

Really appreciate you taking the time to help me and please forgive my delay in acknowledging your replies - I was at the vets last night which, happily, didn't result in the usual red book!

Taken on board what has been said and as per my journey learning to trade the racing markets, it's going to be a case of watching, observing the odds and seeing what opportunities may arise.

Iambic
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

No probs.

BTW although I take a non-data approach to football, I also like to dig deep into the data every now and then. The following website contains downloadable CSV files with scores, stats and odds for plenty of leagues.

http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

You can spot some great opportunities when an underdog scores first. :)
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