Football trading : Newbie, am i on the right path with my thinking

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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swanst1991
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:53 am

Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:28 am

Hi all,

i have a few strategies but the one showing promise is an over 1.5 IP strategy betting at 30 mins and 50 mins with stop loss at 70 if no goals which i am using automation to complete, i have now calculated my average profit per trade, strike rate etc, across 120 bets so far.

after trading for 2 years i have really been around the houses, won a lot lost a lot more etc and I have now dialed it back and am using small stakes and making sure it is profitable before i scale up.

i am now looking to refine this strategy and my first thought it to remove any leagues that are minus profit i have also looked at prices but there appears to be no correlations between price and the trade winning, is this how anyone would refine their strategy? or does anyone have any advice in refining a strategy?

i'm not expecting anyone to feed me their steps but thought it would be worth asking considering the knowledge this forum has.

Thanks in advance

Conor :D

spreadbetting
Posts: 1694
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:01 pm

No really trading is it? You're just gambling on there being goals between 30-70 minutes, you'll probably find a market that already caters for that so you can simply bet on it.

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northbound
Posts: 519
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:13 pm

My view is that football markets are efficient for the most part, so you're unlikely to find an edge betting that way.

https://betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 69#p166269

swanst1991
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:53 am

Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:53 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:01 pm
No really trading is it? You're just gambling on there being goals between 30-70 minutes, you'll probably find a market that already caters for that so you can simply bet on it.
Thanks for your feedback, i cant say i disagree, what would your idea of a trade be?
To add to this all of my strategies involve something happening to allow me to green up, i scalp the first 20 minutes in some games have a good record laying home teams etc. assuming this is all gambling what is trading?

i'm not looking for a market to bet on, placing the bets are not the issue, i am looking to refine what i am doing currently, do you have anything you can add in regards to refining a strategy?

i appreciate any feedback.
Last edited by swanst1991 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

swanst1991
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:53 am

Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:56 pm

northbound wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:13 pm
My view is that football markets are efficient for the most part, so you're unlikely to find an edge betting that way.

https://betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 69#p166269
That is also my thinking but after 120 bets it is in profit and some leagues seriously dominate, do you have any advise on refining a strategy?

spreadbetting
Posts: 1694
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:45 pm

swanst1991 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:53 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:01 pm
No really trading is it? You're just gambling on there being goals between 30-70 minutes, you'll probably find a market that already caters for that so you can simply bet on it.
Thanks for your feedback, i cant say i disagree, what would your idea of a trade be?
To add to this all of my strategies involve something happening to allow me to green up, i scalp the first 20 minutes in some games have a good record laying home teams etc. assuming this is all gambling what is trading?

i'm not looking for a market to bet on, placing the bets are not the issue, i am looking to refine what i am doing currently, do you have anything you can add in regards to refining a strategy?

i appreciate any feedback.

The only reason I'd consider it gambling is because you're simply automating things to close at a set time of 70 minutes regardless of whats actually happening on the pitch or the closing odds are 'value' at 70 minutes. You may well find you'll get better odds just betting into the time of first goals market.

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northbound
Posts: 519
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:54 pm

swanst1991 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:56 pm
That is also my thinking but after 120 bets it is in profit and some leagues seriously dominate, do you have any advise on refining a strategy?
Track every bet/trade in a spreadsheet. The first row should have column names. Use Excel filters to find in which situations it performs better. This is just a practical suggestion.

The problem is that if your strategy doesn't have an edge, the P/L will eventually revert to 0. If you enter a market blindly after 30min, it's unlikely you have a LASTING edge.

Sure, you might have stumbled on a season where plenty of goals get scored between 30-70min. But it's likely that the same strategy applied in the next 2-3 years won't be profitable.

I'm on the same journey as you in finding edges, it's not an easy task. But I'm discovering more and more that a better approach is to look for situations where market participants overreact and you can, for a short period of time, get odds better than they should be.

swanst1991
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:53 am

Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:08 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:45 pm
swanst1991 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:53 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:01 pm
No really trading is it? You're just gambling on there being goals between 30-70 minutes, you'll probably find a market that already caters for that so you can simply bet on it.
Thanks for your feedback, i cant say i disagree, what would your idea of a trade be?
To add to this all of my strategies involve something happening to allow me to green up, i scalp the first 20 minutes in some games have a good record laying home teams etc. assuming this is all gambling what is trading?

i'm not looking for a market to bet on, placing the bets are not the issue, i am looking to refine what i am doing currently, do you have anything you can add in regards to refining a strategy?

i appreciate any feedback.

The only reason I'd consider it gambling is because you're simply automating things to close at a set time of 70 minutes regardless of whats actually happening on the pitch or the closing odds are 'value' at 70 minutes. You may well find you'll get better odds just betting into the time of first goals market.

Thanks, i use % parameters to find my games and after lots of playing around i found getting out at 70 and in at 30 was best, getting out at 80 always resulted in larger losses (as expected) and smaller wins as a goal at 78 mins didn't bring the over 1.5 price down enough. completely agree with your point regards to action on the pitch and value odds at 70 though.
I will look at first goal time markets for sure, i appreciate your time mate.

swanst1991
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:53 am

Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:17 pm

northbound wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:54 pm
swanst1991 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:56 pm
That is also my thinking but after 120 bets it is in profit and some leagues seriously dominate, do you have any advise on refining a strategy?
Track every bet/trade in a spreadsheet. The first row should have column names. Use Excel filters to find in which situations it performs better. This is just a practical suggestion.

The problem is that if your strategy doesn't have an edge, the P/L will eventually revert to 0. If you enter a market blindly after 30min, it's unlikely you have a LASTING edge.

Sure, you might have stumbled on a season where plenty of goals get scored between 30-70min. But it's likely that the same strategy applied in the next 2-3 years won't be profitable.

I'm on the same journey as you in finding edges, it's not an easy task. But I'm discovering more and more that a better approach is to look for situations where market participants overreact and you can, for a short period of time, get odds better than they should be.
wow, thanks for this.

i record everything and have done for a while now, i've got an excel sheet with host of things to calculate what is performing well. it seems there is lots more for me to do and recording my bets and refining my selection process isn't enough.

thanks for the feedback, food for thought.

Lawrence666
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2011 2:49 pm

Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:50 pm

Hi Connor
I would suggest that you forget the 1.5 and move to the 2.5. You can get info on the likely outcomes on 2 sites Bet Virus / BV Rates this gives you Stats that you can use for Over/Under 2.5 look for a % of 69 or higher and only stay in the trade for 10 mins any more would be gambeling.You can also wait till an early goal is scored and the 2.5 goals odds will shoot up, another chance to get in.Also you could use a site called Fash scores (live games) this will show you the live games and score their is an anoying crowd sound if a goal goes in but you can turn it off. Play around with it in practise mode to find your way
Regards
Laurie
Hope this helps.

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