handicap prices

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mobile
Posts: 122
Joined: Sat May 29, 2010 10:52 am

started to look at home/ away/ draw handicap prices.
Not Asian handicap.
Market is obviously limited compared to match odds volume and the spread appears to be quite wide.
Is there a simple formula for converting match odds to +1, -1 ?
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Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

mobile wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:56 pm
started to look at home/ away/ draw handicap prices.
Not Asian handicap.
Market is obviously limited compared to match odds volume and the spread appears to be quite wide.
Is there a simple formula for converting match odds to +1, -1 ?
Wouldn't think there is. If a match in Holland has the home team as a small favorit, the handicaps would be different from say in Italy, and even more so different in say Argentina, due to the different number of goals in said leagues and tendency to, or not to, push for a further goal after going ahead.
mobile
Posts: 122
Joined: Sat May 29, 2010 10:52 am

thanks for the response.
I always live in hope that even if my maths aren't up to it, there could be a mathematical answer.
Reason behind this is as follows.
There is clearly somebody fishing in this market, as the offered amounts are usually in the hundreds and occasionally thousands.
Although the take-up is much smaller.

Don't know whether to offer into the spread as an uncertain of the values offered.
Taking -1 as an example.
This requires a clear two-goal win.
The scores for this would be 2-0, 3-0, 3-1. Plus whatever you considered realistic in the 4 goals scored line.
if you took the values (?) Of these scores against the total book.
Could there be some way of calculating the handicap.
Sorry to be so vague, but unfortunately it reflects my level of mathematical understanding.
Not so much for in play, but if I can find a better way of looking at the handicap prices,pre kickoff. It would be a start.

'I do not bother with projected scorelines. Everybody and their uncle has a supercomputer/AI .
I look at what is not going to happen. Holding it down to a maximum of 3 total match goals.
I have noticed that the simplest way of applying this, is often in the handicap market.
Hence my original question.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Thing is mobile that this isn't pure maths it's real world events.

Some teams get one ahead and shut up shop, some will crumble and let in 3 if they let in one. The way a team wins or loses isn't always related to how likely they are to win.
mobile
Posts: 122
Joined: Sat May 29, 2010 10:52 am

whoever said ignorance is bliss.
I think I understand the point you are both making, but surely that primarily applies to in play.
Hence I adjusted my question to pre kick-off.
There is surely some form of correlation between match and handicap odds.
Otherwise how are the handicapped prices reached ?
Think of a number and double it ?
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Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

mobile wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:35 am
I do not bother with projected scorelines.
mobile wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:09 am
There is surely some form of correlation between match and handicap odds.
This is where you run into trouble, and really should be looking into researching how the prices you see come into being, before trying to find some edge that's never going to be there.

You're approaching it the wrong way around. You assuming it goes like this:

Chance distribution --> Match odds --> European handicap odds

When it in fact goes like this:

Projected chance distribution of number of goals by both team A and team B (adjusted for the effects of the real-world dynamics, Shaun touched upon, and their effects) --> Correct score odds --> All other markets odds, including both match odds and European handicap odds.

There's no math edge to be had by jumping from match odds to handicaps. Anything you'll find will be a reflection of a difference in the chance of a close match or 2+goals win, comparable to an average match with a similar Home-Draw-Away chance distribution.
mobile
Posts: 122
Joined: Sat May 29, 2010 10:52 am

once again, I don't think I'm explaining myself too well.
I'm not looking for an edge in the market. I have already decided my match position.
Frequently, the easiest way to cover most of what I want is in the handicap market.
I expect that I could achieve the same effect with multiple bets in match odds and correct scores.
Although I haven't sat down to work it all out, as I'm looking for the easy route.
My concern is that the handicap market is clearly being seeded and has at least one larger player.
Their edge is going to be with the prices on offer and the spread.
I am not in any way trying to beat them.
I was simply hoping for some kind of formula that would let me quickly ascertain that the handicapped prices on offer, are realistic.
Realistic in this sense, is that they are a reasonable reflection of the overall market.
I'm not looking for any kind of edge against these prices. I'm simply looking for the simplest route.
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