Hi all - I recently saw a video from a couple of years ago that Peter did on estimating correct score odds
In the video Peter was using a sample of 600 "similar" games to estimate the odds.
The game was Birmingham v Wigan from a couple of years ago.
I'm wondering what classifies as "similar" as I'm trying to understand what is needed to accurately do the same
I have a load of correct score data to work with but obviously want to ensure that I'm using it correctly
Cheers
Stu
Correct Scores
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MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2154
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
similar would be two teams each with 11 players, lol
By similar I presume he'll mean similar match odds, and possibly also the main goal line, U/O 2.5.
Since 2 matches with near identical match odds can have different goal expectations, and therefore different 2.5 odds, the subsequent correct scores distribution can differ quite a bit.
Personally I use 2 of the match odds (Favourite and Draw), since the 3rd (Dog) will be tied down; and also the Under 2.5 price. If the match odds and U2.5 prices are near identical for 2 games, their correct score prices will be close to identical as well, even across different leagues.
Since 2 matches with near identical match odds can have different goal expectations, and therefore different 2.5 odds, the subsequent correct scores distribution can differ quite a bit.
Personally I use 2 of the match odds (Favourite and Draw), since the 3rd (Dog) will be tied down; and also the Under 2.5 price. If the match odds and U2.5 prices are near identical for 2 games, their correct score prices will be close to identical as well, even across different leagues.