A Football Trading Strategy. (Free)

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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wearthefoxhat
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Thought I'd post this free, YouTube football trading strategy (about an hour long), posted by (Ben) who seems happy to share his own insights and ideas. Yes, he's other motivation is to sell his course material, but IMO that's not needed as anyone can develop their own, based on the info provided. (Also, only a small bankroll is needed)

The In-Play stats can be taken from Betfair/Betdaq, Bet365, or Flash-Scores Live.
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northbound
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:53 am
Also, only a small bankroll is needed
I disagree.

The last month or so, I trialled a very similar Lay The Leader strategy, getting involved only when the trailing team had better inplay stats than the leader, on every single front (Dangerous Attacks, Total Shots, Shots On, Possession).

I lost count of matches where the equaliser never came.

From my experience, with any strategy, variance in football is MASSIVE. You do need a big bankroll. Which means: never risk more than 1-2% of your bank on any single trade.
JTEDL
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Can be automated too - viewtopic.php?f=50&t=17897 (times can be amended to suit)

Good payoff when they come in, but as Northbound says, you'll have lots of games with no equaliser or team goes 2 goals up.
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wearthefoxhat
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northbound wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:28 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:53 am
Also, only a small bankroll is needed
I disagree.

The last month or so, I trialled a very similar Lay The Leader strategy, getting involved only when the trailing team had better inplay stats than the leader, on every single front (Dangerous Attacks, Total Shots, Shots On, Possession).

I lost count of matches where the equaliser never came.

From my experience, with any strategy, variance in football is MASSIVE. You do need a big bankroll. Which means: never risk more than 1-2% of your bank on any single trade.
The 1-2% of bank is important for sure. (even with a small bankroll)

The reason for originally posting it, was the actual demonstration of the losing scenarios v winning scenarios. With a little practice it could have potential. The stats for sure are important but the money management even more so. What I took from the video, was the low losses incurred v the higher returns. (in proportion to the intial stake).

I don't think picking random games with low matched liquidity is the way forward either.

I also prefer to watch the game I'm involved in too and form my own view supported by the stats.
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wearthefoxhat
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JTEDL wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:53 pm
Can be automated too - viewtopic.php?f=50&t=17897 (times can be amended to suit)

Good payoff when they come in, but as Northbound says, you'll have lots of games with no equaliser or team goes 2 goals up.
Automation looks good, but I'd avoid it with games that have VAR. (I believe Betfair void any trades matched, after the goal, if it's disallowed) This will include all games in the Premier next season.
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Kai
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:53 am
Thought I'd post this free, YouTube football trading strategy (about an hour long), posted by (Ben) who seems happy to share his own insights and ideas. Yes, he's other motivation is to sell his course material, but IMO that's not needed as anyone can develop their own, based on the info provided.
That whole channel is so cringe, just look at the content. Clickbait titles, hot babes as thumbnails, probably selling garbage to naive mugs who are looking to buy flat football strategies that don't even technically exist, trading via cashout only etc. Might as well rename the channel to Football Trading For Idiots, because that's the trading style that he's selling.

People obviously buy into this whole concept, but the closest thing to a flat football strategy that they'll find is on the ladder itself, although they never will unless they have a deep understanding of the ladder mechanics and/or speak Portuguese.

In that particular video he's not that far off with some of the things that he's saying, but you'll find far better info in Bet Angel's football trading videos, especially the most recent one. For example, instead of looking at the most basic inplay stats like the guy from the video is doing, you can look at Sofascore's attack momentum graph or xG stats if you want a much more accurate picture of what's going on in a match. Those are some of the tools that Euler, Psychoff and other good traders are using when trading.

Unlike horse racing where I feel that execution is the harder part (instead of the setup), in football the execution is definitely the easy part. So it all comes down to finding the right setup, about finding those situations where you're certain that you're getting +EV in the longterm. The variance in your results can be large, but so is the scalability, and that's a fair trade-off in my opinion. Don't want to use the washed out term "value" but you're looking for inplay situations where the current price is way off the mark in your opinion, being able to actually identify good risk vs reward situations is a skill like any other that needs to be developed, you can't really buy that from "Ben". Nowadays top traders share a lot of stuff on social media and you can see which setups they look for so you can maybe try and do the same. But definitely try and avoid Youtube channels like that, they can easily send you on the wrong path and waste your money, and more importantly your time.
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BetScalper
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:53 am
Thought I'd post this free, YouTube football trading strategy (about an hour long), posted by (Ben) who seems happy to share his own insights and ideas. Yes, he's other motivation is to sell his course material, but IMO that's not needed as anyone can develop their own, based on the info provided. (Also, only a small bankroll is needed)

The In-Play stats can be taken from Betfair/Betdaq, Bet365, or Flash-Scores Live.
If you read the comments on that YT thread then someone’s gives away a right hum dinger of an Edge, probably by mistake. :)
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wearthefoxhat
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BetScalper wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:36 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:53 am
Thought I'd post this free, YouTube football trading strategy (about an hour long), posted by (Ben) who seems happy to share his own insights and ideas. Yes, he's other motivation is to sell his course material, but IMO that's not needed as anyone can develop their own, based on the info provided. (Also, only a small bankroll is needed)

The In-Play stats can be taken from Betfair/Betdaq, Bet365, or Flash-Scores Live.
If you read the comments on that YT thread then someone’s gives away a right hum dinger of an Edge, probably by mistake. :)
Thanks, I'll take a look.
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wearthefoxhat
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Kai wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:19 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:53 am
Thought I'd post this free, YouTube football trading strategy (about an hour long), posted by (Ben) who seems happy to share his own insights and ideas. Yes, he's other motivation is to sell his course material, but IMO that's not needed as anyone can develop their own, based on the info provided.
That whole channel is so cringe, just look at the content. Clickbait titles, hot babes as thumbnails, probably selling garbage to naive mugs who are looking to buy flat football strategies that don't even technically exist, trading via cashout only etc. Might as well rename the channel to Football Trading For Idiots, because that's the trading style that he's selling.

People obviously buy into this whole concept, but the closest thing to a flat football strategy that they'll find is on the ladder itself, although they never will unless they have a deep understanding of the ladder mechanics and/or speak Portuguese.

In that particular video he's not that far off with some of the things that he's saying, but you'll find far better info in Bet Angel's football trading videos, especially the most recent one. For example, instead of looking at the most basic inplay stats like the guy from the video is doing, you can look at Sofascore's attack momentum graph or xG stats if you want a much more accurate picture of what's going on in a match. Those are some of the tools that Euler, Psychoff and other good traders are using when trading.

Unlike horse racing where I feel that execution is the harder part (instead of the setup), in football the execution is definitely the easy part. So it all comes down to finding the right setup, about finding those situations where you're certain that you're getting +EV in the longterm. The variance in your results can be large, but so is the scalability, and that's a fair trade-off in my opinion. Don't want to use the washed out term "value" but you're looking for inplay situations where the current price is way off the mark in your opinion, being able to actually identify good risk vs reward situations is a skill like any other that needs to be developed, you can't really buy that from "Ben". Nowadays top traders share a lot of stuff on social media and you can see which setups they look for so you can maybe try and do the same. But definitely try and avoid Youtube channels like that, they can easily send you on the wrong path and waste your money, and more importantly your time.
Fair point.

I think with trading overall, there's no ABC-123 obvious strategy that will work all the time. I do believe though, there are things that can be taken and utilised/morphed into your own.

I forgot to mention sofascore, well done. Attack/Momentum on there does seem to go parallel with how I see how the game ebbs/flows. The other data on their site can be incorporated into spreadsheet calculations too.

Personally I wouldn't buy any stuff from unknown/unproven websites. I have attended a course though (PW Masterclass), and met the man behind the B.A software and all the excellent videos you've mentioned.
deansaccount
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Any good sites for live xg guys? thanks
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wearthefoxhat
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deansaccount wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:12 pm
Any good sites for live xg guys? thanks

Try: https://understat.com/
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wearthefoxhat
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Thought I'd post an example of a game that fitted the criteria of the trade.

Norwich v Reading

Norwich @ Home on the cusp of automatic promotion, Reading sucked into trying to survive. Most predictions would make this a home banker with Norwich well known for scoring late goals. Also, they win @92% when their odds are @1.33 (75%). I followed the game thinking Norwich would score early and then score a couple more late on....simples :shock:

pre-off.PNG
Reading take the lead. Odds for Reading drop to around 4.00, so too big to Lay, so it's now a waiting game. If it stays the same, the odds should hit 2.00 around 60 minutes and becomes a trade as long the attack momentum and stats favours Norwich.

Inplay.PNG

Each bar is the equivalent to 1 minute, the Home team in Green, the Away team in Blue. Visually, it's clear Attack/Momentum is in favour of Norwich. But what about the stats?...

finalstats.PNG
Around the 85th minute, Reading were about 1.45, if I hadn't been in at 2.00, with Norwich rep for scoring late, then this would be a fair time...
Then it went crazy. Reading hit 14.00 when the equaliser went in. At this stage I'd be looking to create a no risk trade, 0 profit if Reading came back to win the game. Norwich's 2nd goal went in within 90 seconds from a corner, Reading price is around 100.00 and drifting...

So two opportunities to create a green/no risk trade, no sweat even when Reading made it 2-2 in the 97th minute!

In conclusion, game selection and maybe some insight into the strengths/weaknesses of a team all helps.
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deansaccount
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:18 pm
deansaccount wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:12 pm
Any good sites for live xg guys? thanks

Try: https://understat.com/
Thanks, will give it a try
BrianDee
Posts: 47
Joined: Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:57 pm

That whole channel is so cringe, just look at the content. Clickbait titles, hot babes as thumbnails, probably selling garbage to naive mugs who are looking to buy flat football strategies that don't even technically exist, trading via cashout only etc. Might as well rename the channel to Football Trading For Idiots, because that's the trading style that he's selling.
I bought the UFT course from Ben and it's recovering my account from earlier losses on the horses...
The main course has 8 strategies, all better than the classic 'Lay The Draw'.
He probably saved me 2 years of trial and error, so I'm very glad of the assist!

Stat sites are certainly one resource but the course itself shows simple but effective enhancements to that.
Even Psychoff doesn't just use stats...

My 2c worth :)
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Kai
Posts: 6093
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

BrianDee wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:56 am
I bought the UFT course from Ben and it's recovering my account from earlier losses on the horses...
The main course has 8 strategies, all better than the classic 'Lay The Draw'.
He probably saved me 2 years of trial and error, so I'm very glad of the assist!

Stat sites are certainly one resource but the course itself shows simple but effective enhancements to that.
Even Psychoff doesn't just use stats...

My 2c worth :)
Nice try Ben.
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