How to scalp safely late in the game (attn Psychoff)?

[Alexander_99]

So I have decided to have a serious go at scalping unders. I have already done a bit of scalping on and off with varying results, but directly using only the betfair interface itself, without any software like Betangel (or another popular one, the name of which I don't need to mention, I guess).

I understand the general idea of taking advantage of time decay and trying to take a couple of ticks. What I am trying to understand is the strategy that Psychoff seems to quite often use while scalping. In his interviews he pointed out that scalping in the closing stages of the game when strong favourites are losing could be advantageous. This is because usually under odds tend to be quite high when strong favourites are playing, and the odds start to decay rapidly as the clock ticks. I get this logic, however one can make the reverse argument that in such games, the possibility of a late goal is high since strong teams tend to find a way to equalise or win at the end, and in this case you'd face a massive loss.

For example, he seemed to have scalped during the last few minutes of this game between B. Munich and B.Leverkussen, where Munich were losing:

https://twitter.com/psychofftrading/sta ... 1208200192

I was watching this game and I remember Munich attacking non-stop (and indeed the under odds were ridiculously high). So how can one safely scalp the market and make a profit when when a goal can come any minute?

[ShaunWhite]

So how can one safely scalp the market and make a profit when when a goal can come any minute?

You can't. Not every game would suit this and you need to be patient and wait for the games where the fav is losing and also not looking great.
Time decay usually represents the real world liklihood pretty closely so as always, experience is what pays rather than the blanket strategy.

But there's way more experienced footy traders here than me, so wait to see what they say.

[gazuty]

So how can one safely scalp the market and make a profit when when a goal can come any minute?

You can't. Not every game would suit this and you need to be patient and wait for the games where the fav is losing and also not looking great.
Time decay usually represents the real world liklihood pretty closely so as always, experience is what pays rather than the blanket strategy.

But there's way more experienced footy traders here than me, so wait to see what they say.

+1. Don't pick up pennies in front of the steamroller.

[Kai]

How to scalp safely late in the game?

Short answer would be volatility, that's all you're probably going to get from Psychoff, since the full answer could get very expensive

You can't really even get a textual answer anyway, it would have to be in the form of videos, it's very difficult to explain order flow strategies, particularly if you're not vastly experienced with trading software and trading the ladder itself. Even if you're good at explaining things, it's a very bad idea to talk in depth about order flow on a forum filled with skilled auto traders. Don't forget that Psychoff tried to automate his scalping and was thus far supposedly ( ) unsuccessful.

But for an inplay order flow trader that's the ultimate question and the ultimate challenge, one wrong move and your stakes are gone. Goes without saying you need to frame your risk properly (near impossible for people to do) and be in control of the market (access to fast pics). I would say you at least need 2 out of those 3 things to even think of pursuing this approach seriously.

But logically, if you're not an order flow trader and have limited software experience then it's a pointless question since the most likely conclusion will be that it's just too risky to pursue. Nearly everyone gives up on it anyway since they can't work it out with traditional football trading approaches. A few may pay to find out the answer (via his courses), only to realize they don't have the necessary skill set for it.

[spreadbetting]

Did Pyschoff ever do his courses, guess the corona crisis might have stuffed those plans.

[Kai]

Did Pyschoff ever do his courses, guess the corona crisis might have stuffed those plans.

He did go through with the courses, just in time before footy stopped. The students watched him produce up to 4 figure results live, some ended up with decent profits as well during the course itself.

Hope he doesn't mind me uploading this image strictly for educational purposes, from his Telegram group last year. It can't compare to watching someone trade live but it's a bit of additional context for the scalping question, and in a way it's him somewhat answering the question from OP as well.

Bottom line there is no easy secret to it and no point in hiding everything, I know a lot of people hope that there is but great skill is required to trade like this, so anyone who is able to do it definitely deserves it.

[psychoff]

'Safely' is the tricky word here. There is a risk for sure, and that risk is much higher in the matches like in your example. The point is evaluating the risk/reward ratio, in other words finding the value.

[Alexander_99]

'Safely' is the tricky word here. There is a risk for sure, and that risk is much higher in the matches like in your example. The point is evaluating the risk/reward ratio, in other words finding the value.

Hi Psychoff, thanks a lot for your reply.

[Alexander_99]

Thanks for everyone' replies.

He did go through with the courses, just in time before footy stopped. The students watched him produce up to 4 figure results live, some ended up with decent profits as well during the course itself.

Hope he doesn't mind me uploading this image strictly for educational purposes, from his Telegram group last year. It can't compare to watching someone trade live but it's a bit of additional context for the scalping question, and in a way it's him somewhat answering the question from OP as well.

Kai - cheers for reminding me about order flow, I will take a serious look at this.

[stueytrader]

The paradox of scalping (and even a wider trading period sometimes) is thinking 'I want in' and then 'I want out' on the same prediction but within a very short period of time.

I think it often seems pardoxical without much changing, as it is a short time between trading moves. Less so with longer periods perhaps, where time plays a bigger role.

But I presume those successful can read subtle reasons to go 'in' then 'out' very rapidly....

[stueytrader]

Another way to frame a key trappy issue with scalping is the simple question: why not make this one a swing trade instead?

i.e. if an entry point is suitable, why not hold the trade longer and take more profit from it. Though scalping in many ways reduces risk (because you exit with your profit quickly) it also cuts potential profit down (less time for the movement).

[Kai]

Another way to frame a key trappy issue with scalping is the simple question: why not make this one a swing trade instead?

i.e. if an entry point is suitable, why not hold the trade longer and take more profit from it. Though scalping in many ways reduces risk (because you exit with your profit quickly) it also cuts potential profit down (less time for the movement).

But it's the volatility that creates the opportunity to scalp, so logically if you're scalping the volatility itself then you don't really need to wait for time decay to do its thing and needlessly prolonging your exposure times.

Swinging is an option if there is big value in the price in general (Rebelo style), but with scalping you can manage your risk more effectively and absorb some of that noise. Realistically, by the time you may get caught out chances are you've already done a lot of work, and you sometimes have the option of going for a goal too at the same time so getting caught may be a blessing, but if there's value on the other side then it's a bit silly to go for it.

The markets get volatile for a reason usually, so you have to get comfortable with framing all the risks, it's not something for the faint-hearted, high-risk/high-reward rarely is.

[stueytrader]

Another way to frame a key trappy issue with scalping is the simple question: why not make this one a swing trade instead?

i.e. if an entry point is suitable, why not hold the trade longer and take more profit from it. Though scalping in many ways reduces risk (because you exit with your profit quickly) it also cuts potential profit down (less time for the movement).

But it's the volatility that creates the opportunity to scalp, so logically if you're scalping the volatility itself then you don't really need to wait for time decay to do its thing and needlessly prolonging your exposure times.

Swinging is an option if there is big value in the price in general (Rebelo style), but with scalping you can manage your risk more effectively and absorb some of that noise. Realistically, by the time you may get caught out chances are you've already done a lot of work, and you sometimes have the option of going for a goal too at the same time so getting caught may be a blessing, but if there's value on the other side then it's a bit silly to go for it.

The markets get volatile for a reason usually, so you have to get comfortable with framing all the risks, it's not something for the faint-hearted, high-risk/high-reward rarely is.

Thanks for your reply Kai,

Yes, I see what you mean about relying on 'volatility' itself. This is a somewhat different matter to the reasoning for a swing I agree.

[Persis10tUser]

Another way to frame a key trappy issue with scalping is the simple question: why not make this one a swing trade instead?

i.e. if an entry point is suitable, why not hold the trade longer and take more profit from it. Though scalping in many ways reduces risk (because you exit with your profit quickly) it also cuts potential profit down (less time for the movement).

But it's the volatility that creates the opportunity to scalp, so logically if you're scalping the volatility itself then you don't really need to wait for time decay to do its thing and needlessly prolonging your exposure times.

Swinging is an option if there is big value in the price in general (Rebelo style), but with scalping you can manage your risk more effectively and absorb some of that noise. Realistically, by the time you may get caught out chances are you've already done a lot of work, and you sometimes have the option of going for a goal too at the same time so getting caught may be a blessing, but if there's value on the other side then it's a bit silly to go for it.

The markets get volatile for a reason usually, so you have to get comfortable with framing all the risks, it's not something for the faint-hearted, high-risk/high-reward rarely is.

Hello Kai,
Thank you for your post. Can you please help me to understand how to find those football matches which the most volatile are? For example if there are 50 matches at the same time where would you start? Any specific signal to focus on instead of checking them one by one?
Regards

[Kai]

Hello Kai,
Thank you for your post. Can you please help me to understand how to find those football matches which the most volatile are? For example if there are 50 matches at the same time where would you start? Any specific signal to focus on instead of checking them one by one?
Regards

Hi

Not a bad idea to start by finding value in most liquid Unders, by watching a match. IMHO 1st half largely irrelevant here, last part of the match is more interesting after Under X.5 market drops below 3.0 etc and tick increment size changes, so suddenly many ticks to play for with swings/scalps.

If you use a bit of logic regardless of sport if there is a misalignment in price (aka value) then there will be those that try to aggressively correct that price, thus potentially creating volatility because decaying markets can be stubborn in their behavior.

Plus, football markets are full of aggressive players that try to anticipate goals or try to employ clever risky ladder strategies.

Ultimate question for nearly everyone I would say regardless of sport and market, HFT traders are expected to do quite well if they find pockets of volatility etc.