Football trading : Why do people get an edge from historical data?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Alexander_99
Posts: 62
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:33 pm

There are plenty of websites, some free and some subscription only (like goal profits) that provide all sorts of historical data that apparently enable people to bet / trade only based on this historical data, e.g. "Team A are playing team B and Team A have scored 80% of the time in the first 30 mins while Team B have conceded 60% of the time in the first 30 mins, so "I'll bet on over 0.5 goals in first half" type of thing. But surely all these stats are already accounted for in the available odds? So why do people get an edge from such "publicly" available data? I understand that this could be possible if one watches the live game as well, but plenty of websites (like the one I mentioned above) claim that watching the game is unnecessary. My guess that this approach only could work in some obscure lower division leagues where the pre-match odds are not as heavily modelled by professional quant teams?

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darchas
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Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:04 pm

What do you mean by 'why' do they get an edge? Are you assuming there is an edge there? The rest of the post sounds like you're answering your own question in that there isn't an edge to be found in those sorts of stats. If that's what you're saying then I definitely agree with that. Blindly betting based on those sorts of basic, available-to-everyone stats, I just can't see anyway to profit on that, not when there's so many variables that make up a match and not to mention what's actually happening inplay.

Alexander_99
Posts: 62
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:59 pm

Well, as I wrote in my initial post, websites like goal profits claim that their members are consistently making a profit using such strategies without watching a game at all; so I am wondering whether it's basically all marketing bullshit, or are some people genuinely finding edges using such stats.

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Euler
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Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:11 pm

Data mining in this manner is statistical deja vu. Just because a horse (or football team) did something or there appears to be a correlation doesn't mean it predicts anything. Correlation is not causation. So it's best to use data to model or understand something, but not to create a strategy based on it repeating or not repeating.

We have tons of data on a number of different sports but put them into Bet Angel from a modelling perspective because of this.

JustLukeYou
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Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:51 pm

Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:42 am

Euler wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:11 pm
Data mining in this manner is statistical deja vu. Just because a horse (or football team) did something or there appears to be a correlation doesn't mean it predicts anything. Correlation is not causation. So it's best to use data to model or understand something, but not to create a strategy based on it repeating or not repeating.

We have tons of data on a number of different sports but put them into Bet Angel from a modelling perspective because of this.
But what I don't understand is that football is so unpredictable that how do you make a profit it from it either short or long-term regardless of how much data you have. Unless you able to regularly get high odds it seems almost impossible. Liverpool's defence now seems very weak for example. The historical data for Liverpool over the last three seasons has now been thrown out the window.

PSG were winning 1-0 yesterday at half time and the opponent had 10 men. I backed PSG to win with more than 3 goals but I traded out after about 70 minutes for a loss. PSG won 4-0.

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rik
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Location: London

Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:29 am

if its unpredictable its unpredictable for everyone

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Euler
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Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:02 am

It's predictably unpredictable.

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wearthefoxhat
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Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:13 am

Euler wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:11 pm
Data mining in this manner is statistical deja vu. Just because a horse (or football team) did something or there appears to be a correlation doesn't mean it predicts anything. Correlation is not causation. So it's best to use data to model or understand something, but not to create a strategy based on it repeating or not repeating.

We have tons of data on a number of different sports but put them into Bet Angel from a modelling perspective because of this.
eg: Premier League; No 0-0 draw this season (around 40+ games) therefore, if trend continues, there won't be one this season....

JustLukeYou
Posts: 518
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:51 pm

Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:53 am

So why have all that historical data if its no use to anybody?

Atho55
Posts: 394
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm

Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:19 am

It is possible to use historical data to predict by analysing the data and making an assessment on how likely the desired outcome will happen. I have numerous models that do such a thing on the Aus, UK and Ire racing on a daily basis.

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