Southampton v Torquay tonight
Saints have drifted in spectacular fashion today from 1.54 to 1.66
Whilst they are still at the bottom of L1, this is partially due to the 10 point deduction & on Saturday played really well to sweep aside Gillingham
Torquay are garbage, they're in the relegation zone in L2. To make matters worse for Torquay, one of their best players is the goalkeeper Michael Poke - he can't play tonight because he's on loan from Saints!
Alan Pardew has said he will field a full strength team because he wants to win this cup, so how can Saints have drifted so far?
I don't believe punters everywhere make Torquay a cracking bet tonight, so it just shows how traders quite often just piggy back on a ride, have no real formguide in mind & just hope it will continue to steer in their direction
Chasing a drifter
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taxbreaks1
- Posts: 23
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 12:25 pm
Hmmm! Agreed with your sentiment - Someone knew something hope you still made a profit.
No, I made a small loss actually
This sort of event is quite interesting though, because nothing in the formguide suggested Torquay could get something.
I remember something Peter mentioned during his last webinar, bookies seem to react to Betfair these days more so than in the past.
So, who started the ball rolling of laying Saints?
I'm interested to know how swings like these actually develop
This sort of event is quite interesting though, because nothing in the formguide suggested Torquay could get something.
I remember something Peter mentioned during his last webinar, bookies seem to react to Betfair these days more so than in the past.
So, who started the ball rolling of laying Saints?
I'm interested to know how swings like these actually develop
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Hello everyone!
I've been trading these markets pre-live, but as far as I can tell, some weird behaviours can be noticed.
Today, the odd on Fortuna Dusseldorf came in until it touched 1.89 and then started to drift slowly, until it started acumulating around 1.92-1.93.
Then it came in very quickly - and this is something I finding very hard to trade on. I don't know if you are aware, but low juice bookmakers are commanding some markets, I believe.
When the odd on Dusselsorf came in, one of those major bookmakers had their odds 'suspended' - I'd rather not to say which bookmaker, as it might be publicity. Before those odds were available again, the price violently came in to 1.86. When the market went on again, the odd on Dusseldorf was at 1.84 and the other prices had moved up.
This is a pattern I have seen happen quite often and I have a question for you guys:
Is this bookmaker trading on betfair, or is there people that know that this bookmaker is going to change it's prices on a certain market before it becomes public?
If you want, I can show you some graphs.
Please excuse my poor english, I'm pretty sure that if I was writing my own language I would be much more eloquent.
Thank you all in advance and I hope I've raised a nice topic of discussion.
I've been trading these markets pre-live, but as far as I can tell, some weird behaviours can be noticed.
Today, the odd on Fortuna Dusseldorf came in until it touched 1.89 and then started to drift slowly, until it started acumulating around 1.92-1.93.
Then it came in very quickly - and this is something I finding very hard to trade on. I don't know if you are aware, but low juice bookmakers are commanding some markets, I believe.
When the odd on Dusselsorf came in, one of those major bookmakers had their odds 'suspended' - I'd rather not to say which bookmaker, as it might be publicity. Before those odds were available again, the price violently came in to 1.86. When the market went on again, the odd on Dusseldorf was at 1.84 and the other prices had moved up.
This is a pattern I have seen happen quite often and I have a question for you guys:
Is this bookmaker trading on betfair, or is there people that know that this bookmaker is going to change it's prices on a certain market before it becomes public?
If you want, I can show you some graphs.
Please excuse my poor english, I'm pretty sure that if I was writing my own language I would be much more eloquent.
Thank you all in advance and I hope I've raised a nice topic of discussion.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Well, I guess it wasn't a good subject 
No replies at all
No replies at all
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nigelbleddfa
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2009 10:03 pm
The situation you described was somewhat complicated. Weird things happen in markets and they are not necesarily the result of manipulation. I guess that you are possibly an old oak from Carmarthen. I could be wrong as people from Merthyr tend to be poor at guesswork.CaerMyrddin wrote:Well, I guess it wasn't a good subject
No replies at all
If you want to see unbelievable swings in markets then you need look no further than in-play markets in rugby union. I am sure that these markets are made by people who are totally out of their heads on Felinfoel or Brain's bitter. Betfair are slow to close these markets and I have seen odds of 1.3 offered for over 38.5 points when that figure had been passed fully five minutes before. I just stared at my screen in disbelief and pondered the morality of accepting the bet until it evaporated. Not a lot of liquidity in rugby union markets and very often they disappear completely just after half time, but opportunities occur for those who have less moral scruples than my goodself
.I'm on Over 2.5 goals in the CSKA game and am optimistic.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Hello, sorry for the late response.
Well, you could easily guess that I'm not an oak, but where I'm from was quite trickier. CaerMyrddin was just a cool name I got when I was a teenager, from the Pendragon Cicle's books by Stephen Lawhead.
Those were the days when internet exploded around here and it was the username I started using back then. It just stuck with me till today. So, where am I from? - Portugal
I know, you guys in Britain just hate us, as we tend to beat your teams more than stats would say, so please be gentle on me
Back to the subject, I've been having some problems trading on the last few minutes before the off, due to the shifts I described before, so now I tend to be more cautious on this period. On the Catania-Empoli match, I witnessed another one of those moves, but it was even scarrier. The odds on Catania drifted from 1.8 to 2.14 during the day and then just sunk to 1.92 just 30 seconds before the off.
I was lucky to be on the right side of the move, as layers semt to be exausted, but I can't really tell if anything could justify such a dramatic change, in so little time, so close to the off.
And off course, what triggered this move was that low juice bookie whose name we can't tell, that slashed it's odds on Catania to 1.89 and raised the odds on the draw and on Empoli.
I would like to know more on why these moves happen, but it hasn't been easy.
Congratulations on your O2.5 on Fulham, it was a close shot but a great one
Again, please excuse my flawful english!
Well, you could easily guess that I'm not an oak, but where I'm from was quite trickier. CaerMyrddin was just a cool name I got when I was a teenager, from the Pendragon Cicle's books by Stephen Lawhead.
Those were the days when internet exploded around here and it was the username I started using back then. It just stuck with me till today. So, where am I from? - Portugal
I know, you guys in Britain just hate us, as we tend to beat your teams more than stats would say, so please be gentle on me
Back to the subject, I've been having some problems trading on the last few minutes before the off, due to the shifts I described before, so now I tend to be more cautious on this period. On the Catania-Empoli match, I witnessed another one of those moves, but it was even scarrier. The odds on Catania drifted from 1.8 to 2.14 during the day and then just sunk to 1.92 just 30 seconds before the off.
I was lucky to be on the right side of the move, as layers semt to be exausted, but I can't really tell if anything could justify such a dramatic change, in so little time, so close to the off.
And off course, what triggered this move was that low juice bookie whose name we can't tell, that slashed it's odds on Catania to 1.89 and raised the odds on the draw and on Empoli.
I would like to know more on why these moves happen, but it hasn't been easy.
Congratulations on your O2.5 on Fulham, it was a close shot but a great one
Again, please excuse my flawful english!
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
I must say that I don't know if I can, but I will take my chances. The bookie is Pinnacle Sports. I hope not to be breaking any rule, but if I am, please erase my post.
98% book and high stakes make betfair very sensitive to the way Pinnacle changes its odds.
I guess this comes as no surprise for most of soccer traders...
I don't know if horse racing experiences similar phenomenon, but I believe it doesn't. Bookies tend to follow betfair's odds and not the opposite, as far as I can tell, but please correct me if I'm wrong
Any insight on this subject? Anyone?
98% book and high stakes make betfair very sensitive to the way Pinnacle changes its odds.
I guess this comes as no surprise for most of soccer traders...
I don't know if horse racing experiences similar phenomenon, but I believe it doesn't. Bookies tend to follow betfair's odds and not the opposite, as far as I can tell, but please correct me if I'm wrong
Any insight on this subject? Anyone?
I'm certainly no expert but I would of thought the Bookies first and foremost protect their liabilities and adjust pricing in accordance to this. I'm sure they would be aware of Betfair's prices but wouldn't of thought they would change the book on these fluctuations alone. Also thanks for pointing out your observations on Pinnacle.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
You're wellcome.
I've been thinking a lot on this subject and I think I've reached a possible solution.
On medium/low liquidity markets, it is possible that Pinnacle accepts higher stakes than you would be able to place on Betfair. If they recieve a high stake on a certain outcome then they suspend their odds and decrease their liability by betting on Betfair and making very strong and really quick moves.
If this is true it makes it very hard to trade these markets. From my experince, it's easier to trade on tennis or cricket.
Well, I'd like to know more on this subject and I would really like to ear from more experienced traders...
@J.S. - I think it makes sense that a traditional bookie change their odds based on betfair fluctuations. If they don't do, they will get very unbalanced books, due to arbers
I've been thinking a lot on this subject and I think I've reached a possible solution.
On medium/low liquidity markets, it is possible that Pinnacle accepts higher stakes than you would be able to place on Betfair. If they recieve a high stake on a certain outcome then they suspend their odds and decrease their liability by betting on Betfair and making very strong and really quick moves.
If this is true it makes it very hard to trade these markets. From my experince, it's easier to trade on tennis or cricket.
Well, I'd like to know more on this subject and I would really like to ear from more experienced traders...
@J.S. - I think it makes sense that a traditional bookie change their odds based on betfair fluctuations. If they don't do, they will get very unbalanced books, due to arbers
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Well, seems like the sharing spirit is away among traders, maybe forecoming christmas will change this?