Thought of a potential strategy yesterday and I'm still not sure whether it is viable or not. Wanted to share it here and get some feedback from anyone who has more experience in the markets, or anyone in fact who cares to comment.
The idea is simply lay the winning team at low odds with a 1 tick offset, aiming to get filled by the resistance layers. I'm thinking the chances of getting filled are good if you are one of the first to be in the market (as your offset will be fired in at the front of the queue).
As an example, Chelsea are winning 2-0 with their price at 1.03 to win. My lay order has been sitting at 1.03 since KO and is filled quickly and the offset is placed at 1.04. Now as soon as some large layorders come in you are bound to get filled at 1.04 to make a quick 1 tick profit. Worst come to worst and you don't get filled your liability is tiny having layed at 1.03 anyway, and chances are you are laying at value due to market overreaction from backers when a favourite is winning.
I'm thinking it would only work on high liquid match odds markets where there is a lot of push and pull going on. Now my experience is limited as to how much money is actually filled in the lay side when the fav price is coming in, and also which price would be the most likely to rise by a tick, perhaps psychologically 1.09 would be better? Maybe somebody more experienced could clarify these points with their thoughts.
Granted one tick profits are not going to make you rich quick but the low risk aspect and scalability are what I quite liked about the idea.
What do you guys think?
Football strategy - laying low with offset.
Thanks for the reply rubino. When you say too much outlay, could you clarify what you mean? All it would involve is placing a bet on each team with the correct offset and waiting for one team to take the lead and hit your price. I agree there are many more profitable strategies, but at what risk?
In the Chelsea example the risk is 3% for a 1% gain. The scalability is another factor I like about it. You could use £1000 stakes (or more) as on high liquid matches there typically is £100,000s sitting at these prices. If I was using £1000 that's about £9 greened up for a £30 risk if it goes completely against me.
What I would like to know is how likely are you to get filled on the offset? Is being in the front of the queue going to be enough? Another factor is how far forward in the queue is my initial lay going to be, at KO there does seem to be a lot of money on the fav between 1.01-1.10. Would be less of a problem on the outsider if there is an upset. If I deided to do it at a higher price I would be taking on more risk for the same gain, not worth it it my opinion.
I did just give it a go in the Sevilla match but unfortunately neither team managed to score, even with Sevilla having an extra player and home advantage. Hopefully will find a match tomorrow that will suit the criteria.
If anyone else on the forum knows the answers to my above questions, I would greatly appreciate your insights.
In the Chelsea example the risk is 3% for a 1% gain. The scalability is another factor I like about it. You could use £1000 stakes (or more) as on high liquid matches there typically is £100,000s sitting at these prices. If I was using £1000 that's about £9 greened up for a £30 risk if it goes completely against me.
What I would like to know is how likely are you to get filled on the offset? Is being in the front of the queue going to be enough? Another factor is how far forward in the queue is my initial lay going to be, at KO there does seem to be a lot of money on the fav between 1.01-1.10. Would be less of a problem on the outsider if there is an upset. If I deided to do it at a higher price I would be taking on more risk for the same gain, not worth it it my opinion.
I did just give it a go in the Sevilla match but unfortunately neither team managed to score, even with Sevilla having an extra player and home advantage. Hopefully will find a match tomorrow that will suit the criteria.
If anyone else on the forum knows the answers to my above questions, I would greatly appreciate your insights.