Leeds value this evening

[Bet Angel]

Look at tonights match Leeds vs Grimsby

1.28 Leeds win
6.60 Draw
13.50 Grimsby

My models suggest: -

1.18 Leeds win
8.37 Draw
28.33 Grimsby

I don't know if Leeds are fielding a weakened team but there is quite a gap between the odds and the forecast. Over the course of a year I'd expect the model to be about 0.10% out. Other matches that I have on file that have exactly the same set up : -

01/09/2007 Liverpool Derby 6-0
10/05/2008 Chelsea Bolton 1-1
06/09/2008 Spain Bosnia 1-0
10/10/2008 Wales Liechtenstn 2-0
09/12/2008 Chelsea CFR Cluj 2-1
17/09/2009 Benfica BATE 2-0

Most went off at 1.16-1.18