Soccer Mystic Algorithm

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Hi,

I realise I am asking for a lot but its is there any equation that will give me the rough odds of the price in-play for a football match if the other team were to score? Based on the starting odds, current odds, time into the match and the current score?

Thanks for any help!
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gutuami
Posts: 1858
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 4:06 pm

start with
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

M. Dixon and S.G. Coles
Modelling Association Football Scores and Ineficiencies in the Football Betting Market
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

That doesn't work though, but there are plenty of papers out there on football forecasting. The big problem you have though is the seed values, if you don't get those correct everything else is pointless.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

I think I have a poisson calculator spreadsheet somewhere, there is never an easy way to make money in this game!

Cheers
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gutuami
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LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Adding to this does anyone know if the expected amount of goals increases or decreases when a red card is given to either team in a game with heavy favourites (below 1.3)

So will the over 2.5 come in if there is a red card on the fav/underdog, I assume it would if the underdog got a red but what about the fav?
Tobedotty
Posts: 68
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 11:15 am

I believe the number of goals increases, partly because red cards grant penalties and free kicks etc. and then afterwards because one team has less players . Just get some data and do a simple comparison, it shouldn't be too tricky.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Thats what I would have thought but looking at the Iraklis v POAK game thats on at the moment the opposite has happened.

A sending off for the fav has caused a dramatic reduction in the chance of over 2.5 goals..
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Tobedotty
Posts: 68
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 11:15 am

In one sided games, the favorite is expected to do most of the scoring, so it is likely that having a player removed will mean they score fewer goals and so overall there is less goals.

The underdog is probably playing defensively and probably doesn't usually score many goals anyway even against rubbish teams so won't be able to keep the scoring rate as high.

That said again, you'd need to do you stats.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Hi Linus

I just came across this post from a few years ago.

I don't suppose you still have that spreadsheet please? :)

Jeff
LinusP wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:25 pm
I think I have a poisson calculator spreadsheet somewhere, there is never an easy way to make money in this game!

Cheers
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Ferru123 wrote:
Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:39 am
Hi Linus

I just came across this post from a few years ago.

I don't suppose you still have that spreadsheet please? :)

Jeff
LinusP wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:25 pm
I think I have a poisson calculator spreadsheet somewhere, there is never an easy way to make money in this game!

Cheers
Sorry Jeff, done a quick search but can’t find anything, I think it is on one of my drives but I have obviously named it something stupid.

Liam
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

No worries, thanks anyway Liam.

What I'm basically looking for is a spreadsheet that shows the estimated odds decay based on given starting odds, along with the odds if a goal is scored - which Soccer Mystic does exceptionally well, but I'm exploring whether I can put that information into a spreadsheet, so I can apply automation.

Does anyone have such a spreadsheet please?

Thanks

Jeff
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Good luck making money using simple poisson distributions to predict the odds, Jeff, you'll be up against teams using much more sophisticated methods of accurately predicting the probabilities who also take into account the state of the games ,team selections etc.

A simple google search should find you plenty of spreadsheets and the usual idea to get goal decay over time is to multiply the starting goal expectation by the proportion of minutes remaining to the power of 0.84 i.e. 85th minute would be = opening goal expection * (90-85/90)^0.84 generally based on the statistics that 56% of goals are scored in the second half.

For the current score poisson would simply use that as a starting point as it's only predicting the likliehood of a goal. So say the score was 1-0 you'd use that as the starting value and a poisson prediction of 0-1 would simply become a score of 1-1 with it's associated probabilty and once again you add all the winning, losing & drawing outcomes to get your overall win lose draw odds.
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