Football ratings

[Euler]

3.80 : Alaves vs. Real Madrid
3.49 : Roma vs. Udinese
3.20 : Montpellier vs. Paris St-G
3.15 : Brechin vs. Dunfermline
3.10 : Norwich vs. Bristol City
3.05 : Wolves vs. Barnsley
2.97 : Man City vs. C Palace
2.91 : Bolton vs. Brentford
2.90 : Hoffenheim vs. Schalke
2.89 : Stoke vs. Chelsea
2.89 : Dumbarton vs. Inverness CT
2.77 : RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
2.75 : Everton vs. Bournemouth
2.73 : Aston Villa vs. Nottm Forest
2.68 : Leeds vs. Ipswich
2.68 : Stuttgart vs. Augsburg
2.66 : Preston vs. Millwall
2.55 : Southampton vs. Man Utd
2.51 : Swansea vs. Watford
2.50 : Mainz vs. Hertha Berlin
2.49 : Feyenoord vs. Breda
2.42 : Sunderland vs. Cardiff
2.38 : Burnley vs. Huddersfield
2.36 : Dinamo Moscow vs. CSKA Moscow

[Euler]

It would be nice to see a reconciliation of estimates against actual results :p

Over the course of the season it's very close to actual but of course, individually it's highly variable.

[Euler]

Perfectly possible

Hi Peter,

You've said before that forming expectations based on past results is pretty irrelevant in football, but surely an expected goals model based on shots, corners etc is quite heavily reliant on past games?

Sort of, you need to look at previous results to get an idea of how many chances are being created etc and so on, but you also need to do that to the other team. So its more the ability between the two teams that becomes important.

[Dallas]

3.80 : Alaves vs. Real Madrid
3.49 : Roma vs. Udinese
3.20 : Montpellier vs. Paris St-G
3.15 : Brechin vs. Dunfermline
3.10 : Norwich vs. Bristol City
3.05 : Wolves vs. Barnsley
2.97 : Man City vs. C Palace
2.91 : Bolton vs. Brentford
2.90 : Hoffenheim vs. Schalke
2.89 : Stoke vs. Chelsea
2.89 : Dumbarton vs. Inverness CT
2.77 : RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
2.75 : Everton vs. Bournemouth
2.73 : Aston Villa vs. Nottm Forest
2.68 : Leeds vs. Ipswich
2.68 : Stuttgart vs. Augsburg
2.66 : Preston vs. Millwall
2.55 : Southampton vs. Man Utd
2.51 : Swansea vs. Watford
2.50 : Mainz vs. Hertha Berlin
2.49 : Feyenoord vs. Breda
2.42 : Sunderland vs. Cardiff
2.38 : Burnley vs. Huddersfield
2.36 : Dinamo Moscow vs. CSKA Moscow

With Ayr abandoned I did a bit more than normal on footie this weekend so made a lot of use of these - as usual very good accuracy

[Goon]

first time poster here who just stumbled across these ratings last week by following a link from another forum and was impressed enough to bet on some of this weeks
happy to say I made a very tidy profit overall so just wanted to say a quick thank you for sharing them and hope you'll be producing more for next weeks games?

[jzk2309]

PSG echhhh ;(((((

[max_usted]

PSG echhhh ;(((((

Was it that Neymar wasn't playing? A front three of Mbappe, Cavani and Drexler just won't cut it against Montpellier. It is worth noting how toothless they were without him though.

There are always a few silent killers like this - another this week was Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna (0-0). Luckily stayed clear of both, but looked at them.

I try to tell myself to do the opposite of my first intention when I find odds that are way higher/lower than my comfort zone - e.g. on the PSG game - but wasn't so brave this time.

[Euler]

3.56 : Home 3.07 Away 0.49 - Napoli vs. Feyenoord
3.53 : Home 2.95 Away 0.58 - Man City vs. Shakhtar
3.39 : Home 1.59 Away 1.80 - Dortmund vs. Real Madrid
3.36 : Home 2.95 Away 0.41 - Sevilla vs. NK Maribor
3.10 : Home 2.39 Away 0.70 - Wigan vs. Plymouth
2.96 : Home 0.92 Away 2.04 - Spartak Moscow vs. Liverpool
2.89 : Home 1.22 Away 1.67 - Oldham vs. Peterborough
2.87 : Home 1.31 Away 1.56 - Nottm Forest vs. Fulham
2.85 : Home 1.54 Away 1.31 - Brentford vs. Derby
2.76 : Home 1.57 Away 1.19 - Monaco vs. Porto
2.72 : Home 1.95 Away 0.77 - Bristol City vs. Bolton
2.65 : Home 1.22 Away 1.43 - Besiktas vs. RB Leipzig
2.60 : Home 0.66 Away 1.94 - APOEL vs. Tottenham
2.49 : Home 1.43 Away 1.06 - Cardiff vs. Leeds
2.48 : Home 1.35 Away 1.14 - Hull vs. Preston
2.47 : Home 1.50 Away 0.96 - Middlesbrough vs. Norwich
2.40 : Home 1.39 Away 1.01 - Millwall vs. Reading
2.39 : Home 0.92 Away 1.47 - Burton vs. Aston Villa
2.35 : Home 1.24 Away 1.10 - Ipswich vs. Sunderland

Trying an experimental layout for you to give more info.

[TONKER]

Thanks a lot for these, the new layout is really helpful

[Jamie]

Fabulous, very much appreciated Peter. It's brilliant to have the extra info. Thank you.

[jacks6666]

Wow.

Thanks Peter.

Really like these new style ratings.

[biniaz35]

Pete any Ratings for tonight's CL games

[Euler]

3.29 : Home 2.92 Away 0.37 - Juventus vs. Olympiakos
3.08 : Home 1.81 Away 1.27 - Paris St-G vs. Bayern Munich
3.03 : Home 0.83 Away 2.20 - Sporting Lisbon vs. Barcelona
2.69 : Home 1.37 Away 1.33 - Anderlecht vs. Celtic
2.51 : Home 1.08 Away 1.43 - FC Basel vs. Benfica
2.35 : Home 1.13 Away 1.23 - Birmingham vs. Sheff Wed
2.33 : Home 1.09 Away 1.24 - Sheff Utd vs. Wolves
2.23 : Home 0.76 Away 1.47 - CSKA Moscow vs. Man Utd
2.15 : Home 1.27 Away 0.88 - Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea

[Euler]

Perfectly possible

Hi Peter,

You've said before that forming expectations based on past results is pretty irrelevant in football, but surely an expected goals model based on shots, corners etc is quite heavily reliant on past games?

Found a video you may like: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xog-QZvFWcA

[Tomm]

Perfectly possible

Hi Peter,

You've said before that forming expectations based on past results is pretty irrelevant in football, but surely an expected goals model based on shots, corners etc is quite heavily reliant on past games?

Found a video you may like: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xog-QZvFWcA

Thanks Peter, I've had a go recently at forming expectations of the expected number of goals in a game with similar figures to yours, which I would class as a success! Do you factor possession at all in your calculations?