Football ratings

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

3.49 : Hoffenheim vs. Bayern Munich
3.29 : Freiburg vs. Dortmund
3.23 : New York City vs. Portland Timbers
3.06 : Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
3.04 : Nice vs. Monaco
2.97 : Juventus vs. Chievo
2.95 : Preston vs. Barnsley
2.89 : Reading vs. Bristol City
2.88 : Sevilla vs. Eibar
2.88 : Mainz vs. Leverkusen
2.86 : Aston Villa vs. Brentford
2.86 : Leicester vs. Chelsea
2.84 : Fulham vs. Cardiff
2.82 : Rotherham vs. Bury
2.77 : Mgladbach vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
2.67 : Leeds vs. Burton
2.66 : Stoke vs. Man Utd
2.64 : Southampton vs. Watford
2.62 : Avellino vs. Foggia
2.60 : Wolves vs. Millwall
2.59 : Everton vs. Tottenham
2.59 : Sheff Wed vs. Nottm Forest
2.52 : Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid
2.50 : Sunderland vs. Sheff Utd
2.35 : Viitorul Constanta vs. FCSB
2.31 : Bolton vs. Middlesbrough
2.29 : Brighton vs. West Brom
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mjmorris335
Posts: 180
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:29 am

Thanks Peter,

Mike
Tomm
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:59 pm

Do you calculate a standard deviation figure for the expected goals data as well?
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Tomm wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:43 pm
Do you calculate a standard deviation figure for the expected goals data as well?
Perfectly possible
Tomm
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:59 pm

Euler wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:49 pm
Perfectly possible
Hi Peter,

You've said before that forming expectations based on past results is pretty irrelevant in football, but surely an expected goals model based on shots, corners etc is quite heavily reliant on past games?
icarus121
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

Don't suppose anybody has a view on tonight's P.L match ? I'm hedging towards unders .......but seems alot of goals both past and present at moment.
dm1900
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

It would be nice to see a reconciliation of estimates against actual results :p
icarus121
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

West Ham set up for a dogged battle and being backed accordingly.Guess the team news is a big plus more than past results maybe?
weemac
Posts: 1216
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

doovd wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:06 pm
It would be nice to see a reconciliation of estimates against actual results :p
Tomm wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:41 pm
Euler wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:49 pm
Perfectly possible
Hi Peter,

You've said before that forming expectations based on past results is pretty irrelevant in football, but surely an expected goals model based on shots, corners etc is quite heavily reliant on past games?
One very good question, and one very good idea, imo.
icarus121
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

Peter
Don't suppose you would have any ratings for matches today? And or a copy of weekend matches already played ,just for logging all results against.Guess you busy and understand if you don't have at hand .Many thanks either way. :)
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

3.80 : Alaves vs. Real Madrid
3.49 : Roma vs. Udinese
3.20 : Montpellier vs. Paris St-G
3.15 : Brechin vs. Dunfermline
3.10 : Norwich vs. Bristol City
3.05 : Wolves vs. Barnsley
2.97 : Man City vs. C Palace
2.91 : Bolton vs. Brentford
2.90 : Hoffenheim vs. Schalke
2.89 : Stoke vs. Chelsea
2.89 : Dumbarton vs. Inverness CT
2.77 : RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
2.75 : Everton vs. Bournemouth
2.73 : Aston Villa vs. Nottm Forest
2.68 : Leeds vs. Ipswich
2.68 : Stuttgart vs. Augsburg
2.66 : Preston vs. Millwall
2.55 : Southampton vs. Man Utd
2.51 : Swansea vs. Watford
2.50 : Mainz vs. Hertha Berlin
2.49 : Feyenoord vs. Breda
2.42 : Sunderland vs. Cardiff
2.38 : Burnley vs. Huddersfield
2.36 : Dinamo Moscow vs. CSKA Moscow
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

doovd wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:06 pm
It would be nice to see a reconciliation of estimates against actual results :p
Over the course of the season it's very close to actual but of course, individually it's highly variable.
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Tomm wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:41 pm
Euler wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:49 pm
Perfectly possible
Hi Peter,

You've said before that forming expectations based on past results is pretty irrelevant in football, but surely an expected goals model based on shots, corners etc is quite heavily reliant on past games?
Sort of, you need to look at previous results to get an idea of how many chances are being created etc and so on, but you also need to do that to the other team. So its more the ability between the two teams that becomes important.
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

Euler wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:39 pm
3.80 : Alaves vs. Real Madrid
3.49 : Roma vs. Udinese
3.20 : Montpellier vs. Paris St-G
3.15 : Brechin vs. Dunfermline
3.10 : Norwich vs. Bristol City
3.05 : Wolves vs. Barnsley
2.97 : Man City vs. C Palace
2.91 : Bolton vs. Brentford
2.90 : Hoffenheim vs. Schalke
2.89 : Stoke vs. Chelsea
2.89 : Dumbarton vs. Inverness CT
2.77 : RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
2.75 : Everton vs. Bournemouth
2.73 : Aston Villa vs. Nottm Forest
2.68 : Leeds vs. Ipswich
2.68 : Stuttgart vs. Augsburg
2.66 : Preston vs. Millwall
2.55 : Southampton vs. Man Utd
2.51 : Swansea vs. Watford
2.50 : Mainz vs. Hertha Berlin
2.49 : Feyenoord vs. Breda
2.42 : Sunderland vs. Cardiff
2.38 : Burnley vs. Huddersfield
2.36 : Dinamo Moscow vs. CSKA Moscow
With Ayr abandoned I did a bit more than normal on footie this weekend so made a lot of use of these - as usual very good accuracy :)
Goon
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:55 am

first time poster here who just stumbled across these ratings last week by following a link from another forum and was impressed enough to bet on some of this weeks
happy to say I made a very tidy profit overall so just wanted to say a quick thank you for sharing them and hope you'll be producing more for next weeks games?
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