Market over-reactions

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

I've noticed that, when a goal is scored, the price of the team that scored will often dip massively momentarily, before rising back up. Is it possible to exploit these over-reactions, or do they disappear too quickly?

Thanks

Jeff
BBB123
Posts: 62
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:07 pm

Hi Ferru,

This does happen & with BF introducing unmanaged markets on certain matches there is definitely an edge here.The only thing you have to do is predict what the odds will go down to after a goal & have a lay order waiting to catch the over-reaction.

Good luck
Ben
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Thanks Ben.

Is there a formula that tells you what a football team's odds of winning will be if they score a goal if the odds implied by their Betfair price is x% before a goal is scored?

Thanks

Jeff
BBB123
Posts: 62
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:07 pm

Soccer Mystic - Price predictor will give you a good estimate of all sorts of things.You need to play around with it to see where there are trading possibilities.
See BA TV for a video demo

Ben
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