When to exit?

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indigokid
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Joined: Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:01 am

I've been using the "Best Betfair Strategy for Tennis Trading" found in this one of Peter's videos. Peter uses the tennis trader tool and dutching to assess probability of a profit. https://betangelacademy.thinkific.com/c ... is-trading

It's quite good, however while on many games I make a good return there are always games which don't go as expected and suddenly, despite there being potential, one bet is left unmatched and the match/market is running away. There is often potential for it to swing back but often when I hold it goes too far and ends up in a significant loss.

So: what rule of thumb can I consistently use to exit to minimise losses?

Let's say the margin for profit/loss bet is automatically 10% as in the video.

Thanks.
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Euler
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You can give several answers to this question.

The first is related to your entry. If you know how often you are getting that 10% profit then that will define what loss you can take. So your 'natural' cut off point will be a function of your 10% profit and your strike rate. Keep your loss inside this and you will be long term profitable.

The second is related to a key point in the match. What will the likely score be a break up, two breaks up, a break down, a set down, two breaks down etc. That would be the signal for an exit.

That also ties into the first point, but hopefully you will see where I am coming from.
indigokid
Posts: 20
Joined: Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:01 am

Thanks for the response Euler, didn't see it come in.

I was thinking something similar but Peter's psychology video that says people don't hold long enough and exit too soon kept echoing in my mind.

I think I'll ignore that and set a 5 or 10% exit rule and see how that works.

Thanks for your input.

Yes, good point on the planning ahead. I think I'll do some more of that as well pre-match and see how that tallies in game and compare contrast with a 10% rule of thumb.

Testing ahoy!
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Kai
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Euler = Peter
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ShaunWhite
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indigokid wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:33 am
I was thinking something similar but Peter's psychology video says people don't hold long enough and exit too soon kept echoing in my mind.

I think I'll ignore that and see how that works.
Do you really feel you're at the stage where you can start ignoring the advice of a highly profitable trader !?

I think you've misunderstood that video (if I remember right), it's talking about looking at the performance of a strategy long term over many events, not the ins & outs of executing a strategy within a single event.
jamesg46
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Kai wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:46 am
Euler = Peter
Reading through then & I knew someone had to do this because I had the exact same urge Haha
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The Silk Run
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jamesg46 wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:33 pm
Kai wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:46 am
Euler = Peter
Reading through then & I knew someone had to do this because I had the exact same urge Haha
Euler = WISDOM & KNOWLEDGE
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

The Silk Run wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:34 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:33 pm
Kai wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:46 am
Euler = Peter
Reading through then & I knew someone had to do this because I had the exact same urge Haha
Euler = WISDOM & KNOWLEDGE
I did wonder recently why Peter would use Euler, I got as far as Leonhard Euler,
Mathematician, physicist, astronomer, geographer, logician and engineer.

Could be barking up the wrong tree but they definitely share characteristics & its given me the opportunity to research somebody I would never of known about otherwise.
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Dallas
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jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:59 am
The Silk Run wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:34 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:33 pm


Reading through then & I knew someone had to do this because I had the exact same urge Haha
Euler = WISDOM & KNOWLEDGE
I did wonder recently why Peter would use Euler, I got as far as Leonhard Euler,
Mathematician, physicist, astronomer, geographer, logician and engineer.

Could be barking up the wrong tree but they definitely share characteristics & its given me the opportunity to research somebody I would never of known about otherwise.
That's exactly who the name was taken from, partly to highlight Leonhard as he's never been credited anywhere near as much as he should have been for his work so if Peters username draws just a little attention to him then its job done ;)
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Kai
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Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

That's very well put Dallas. Tbh not sure I remember hearing the name Euler before, although I wasn't paying too much attention in school and college :) Maybe that's why my math is terrible, or average at best. Thankfully being a mathemagician is not a major prerequisite for trading, in a way I feel that it may actually be a major advantage.

In any case OP, ignore the above-mentioned advice at your own peril.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Dallas wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:45 am
jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:59 am
The Silk Run wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:34 pm

Euler = WISDOM & KNOWLEDGE
I did wonder recently why Peter would use Euler, I got as far as Leonhard Euler,
Mathematician, physicist, astronomer, geographer, logician and engineer.

Could be barking up the wrong tree but they definitely share characteristics & its given me the opportunity to research somebody I would never of known about otherwise.
That's exactly who the name was taken from, partly to highlight Leonhard as he's never been credited anywhere near as much as he should have been for his work so if Peters username draws just a little attention to him then its job done ;)
It's a shame that the majority tend to skip past the levels that have been left for us to explore. Its apparent from the reply of "The Silk Run" that they got it too. I now feel I've let the cat out of the bag and taken away the fun others could have had finding out for themselves.
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Kai
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Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:03 am
It's a shame that the majority tend to skip past the levels that have been left for us to explore. Its apparent from the reply of "The Silk Run" that they got it too. I now feel I've let the cat out of the bag and taken away the fun others could have had finding out for themselves.
I think you're fine, people still to this day do not know how to use Google properly :D They still have a habit of asking basic questions and awaiting replies, even though knowledge today is quite literally available at the tip of their fingertips and they can find the answers to their questions in seconds or minutes.

Not saying this applies to OP, but not knowing that Euler is in fact Peter suggests that they don't spend a lot of time reading this forum, which in turn suggests they have a previous habit of ignoring advice in general.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Kai wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:24 am
jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:03 am
It's a shame that the majority tend to skip past the levels that have been left for us to explore. Its apparent from the reply of "The Silk Run" that they got it too. I now feel I've let the cat out of the bag and taken away the fun others could have had finding out for themselves.
I think you're fine, people still to this day do not know how to use Google properly :D They still have a habit of asking basic questions and awaiting replies, even though knowledge today is quite literally available at the tip of their fingertips and they can find them in seconds or minutes.

Not saying this applies to OP, but not knowing that Euler is in fact Peter suggests that they don't spend a lot of time reading this forum, which in turn suggests they have a previous habit of ignoring advice in general.
Point well made!
indigokid
Posts: 20
Joined: Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:01 am

In case anyone is interested the line that was echoing in my head was “When a profit is made, they’re taking the profit too early and when a loss is made they’re so desperate to avoid it that they end up increasing it one way or another.”

It's from the video The Devil Inside: Loss Aversion in the psychology section of the training course.
Link: https://betangelacademy.thinkific.com/c ... s-aversion

So, using Euler's advice on % above I've got my profitable exits up to around 16% average for a day. That was by making myself wait slightly longer to exit and setting myself either a -5% or -10% trading loss to exit.

However, on one trade today I lost half my stake simply because I held too long, was tired and reacted emotionally - which means you then chase the loss instead of taking the longer view. This is the only time this happens and I'm determined to train it out.

Thanks again for your input Euler.
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