Federer vs. Murray

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Bet Angel
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Odds 1.64 vs 2.52

These odds imply that the market thinks Federer has a 1.6% better chance of winning a point on serve than Murray. Neither are massive servers but Murray has the best return of serve on the circuit.

Murray vs Federer 6-4 on head to head's

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Hea ... 4&oId=MC10

Here are some forecast odds given the starting price. Obviously depending on how the match goes these will most likely change shape during the match. But they are a guide.

Federer serves first and wins the first game, 1.61
Federer serves first and loses the first game, 1.98
Murray serves first and win the first game, 2.38
Murray serves first and losses the first game, 3.18

Federer wins first set, 1.31 vs 4.30
Murray wins first set, 1.66 vs 2.54
Murray 2-0, 1.21
Federer 2-0, 1.10

Normal caveats apply!
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LeTiss
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There's an amazing stat with regards to Federer's win % when he takes the first set.

Basically, he's a great front runner, so Murray needs a good start

It will be interesting to see how relaxed or nervous Murray is, because if he allows Federer to get off to a flyer, it could be game over
fuzzer54
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What exactly is the stat?
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Nervous start by Murray but Fed looks calm and relaxed. No surprise to see Murray a break down but hopefully he will settle and make it a match.
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Odds haven't come in on Fed as much as I expected.
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Fuzz, I would think that any top ranking player would have a very high win on first set success.
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Perfect response by Murray to break back, hoepfully that will lift his confidence. I think I'll see how this service game goes and jump into the market.
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LeTiss
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fuzzer54 wrote:What exactly is the stat?
Just heard the stat again

Federer has a 97% win record when taking the 1st set
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Nice to see Murray putting Fed under pressure on his serve, Fed is having to raise his game. Murray needs a good service game though.
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And he's got one, this is looking interesting now.
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LeTiss
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I fancy Murray here

He clearly seems to rattle Federer
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Murray has always done well against Fed, I think people put too much emphasis on that US Open loss to Fed when Murray wasn't in it.

Very close at the moment, no one particulary has the match by the balls. You think that Murray will probably have the edge in a longer match.
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Murray really needs to find his service game. Interesting pattern is developing though, Murray is clearly trying to keep Fed at the back of the court at the moment.
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Clincal Federer pins Murray back to get a critical game, will now serve for the set.
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Stewart
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Funny ;) as we all see different things. Murray seems again to be dropping into safety first mode and Federer making the majority of testing shots - deep and to the angles.

I think this could be over in straight sets to Federer.
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