Tennis Trading : Simple Tennis Trade Using the Tennis Trader Profiling Tool

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Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:47 pm

Tennis trader is a unique tool that predicts how the odds are expected to move throughout a tennis match - set by set, game by game and point by point. This makes it invaluable for finding trading opportunities and the best entry and exit times during in a match.

At first glance Tennis Trader may look a very complex and daunting feature with an array of numbers and percentages splattered all over your screen so I’ve put this thread together to try and break it down and show how easy it is to use and understand once you know what to look for.

The best place to start as always is at the beginning, first you need to open a tennis market then click the ‘Tennis Ball’ icon to launch the Tennis Trader predictor tool. You will see it become populated with the player’s names, the next thing to do is make sure the ‘Update the live score feed’ box is ticked (across the top banner of the tennis trader window), after that ensure the right match type is selected from the drop down box (this is very important as it will affect the predicted scores shown).

The final thing to do before starting to use it is to calibrate it by clicking on the large ‘Calibrate’ button also on the top banner - this will update all the predicted odds, percentages etc shown, If the match is yet to start then you can do this straight away, if you have arrived mid match then just wait until the start of a new game before calibrating, its also handy to recalibrate a few times during the match but only do so at the start of a new game.

Tennis Trader Banner.JPG

That’s the setting up done now how to understand the information displayed.

For this example, where just going to use the default main ‘match grid’ tab, there is more than enough info on here to use to find some easy low risk trades.

Directly below the main banner is the current score, odds and server information, going down you will notice there is a series of other rows grouped with mini headers, each of these groups contains the Tennis Traders predictions for each player should that outcome occur, on the far right you ll see a series of percentages - for the purposes of this example you can ignore what’s shown in all the percentage columns.

All we are interested in to find a trade are the groups that show the predicted set and game scores for each player, so by ticking the boxes of these four groups it will put them altogether at the top of the window, this and the price shown in the predicted odds column is all that we need to find a trade – and the current score of course

Tennis Trader Match Grid.JPG
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Posts: 6835
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:48 pm

Identifying an opportunity with Tennis Trader

What I’m looking for with this trade is the moment where the odds of a player (almost always the fav) have reached a certain level and 'Tennis Trader' tells me they are unlikely to shorten much more - even if that player goes onto win the current set.

In this example we can see the fav Dominic Theim is currently leading this set 3-1 and is about to serve, his odds are currently 1.28 to lay. 'Tennis Trader' is showing us that even if he goes onto win the set (requiring him to still win 3 more games) his odds will only shorten around 5 more ticks to 1.23. However, should he be broken back 'Tennis Trader' is showing his odds will jump up around 28 ticks to 1.55.

We can see this by referring to the predicted odds he will drift too should his opponent Gasteo Elias win the next game. So, in anticipation that a break will occur in the next few games and the low risk high reward to this trade shown by Tennis Trader we are presented with an excellent lay opportunity on Dominic Theim.

For a little extra confidence boost it’s also worth noting at this moment in the match Dominic Theim is 1 set down so if his opponent does break back and goes on to win this set he wins the match so not wanting to go to a 3rd set Gasteo Elias will certainly be trying his best to break back.

Tennis Trader 1.jpg

Dominic Theim was broken in that service game and his odds did indeed drift out to 1.57 (2 ticks more than predicted) we should now be greening up this position and taking our profit but just before we do the score is now 3-2 to Theim and Gasteo is about to serve is it worth holding onto our position??

'Tennis Trader' is telling us that if Gasteo holds this serve Theims odds will continue to drift around 18 more ticks to 1.73 but if Theim once again breaks back then his odds will again tumble by around 28 ticks. This confirms that now would bethe best time to exit this trade green up.

Tennis Trader 2.jpg

That’s is this trade complete, both entry and exit points determined by the information shown by 'Tennis Trader' predictor tool. Used correctly its a very powerful tool and will identify many similar opportunities each match.
It’s worth remembering that Tennis matches often contain big swings in odds for both players and it’s not unusual to see a player trade at very low odds then drift right out which means it’s possible to make some decent money even with a small bank.
In the example above have layed Dominic Theim for £400 but the total liability was just over £100 of which I stood to lose about -£16 had the trade gone against me or a profit of £75 if it went in my favour.

You might want to check out some of the excellent video tutorials that show Tennis Trader and other ways to trade tennis markets and also keep an eye on the Bet Angel blog for more tips and opportunities. ... 43D7D636EB ... g_betting/
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Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:18 am

For this example, im going to show how to understand the ‘Game Matrix’ of the Tennis Trader profiling tool and show just one simple way it can be used to find a good trading opportunity.

What the ‘Game Matrix’ tab shows is the score pathway each game can take to get to from the beginning to the end of each game and the approx. odds each player will be if that score is reached.

For example, if we start by looking at 0-0 in the image below the odds shown are the current odds as the game is about to begin. From here the game can take one of two paths 15-0 or 0-15 and in each of those boxes the approx. odds are shown, so if we assume it went 15-0 we can see Sam querreys odds will have shortened to 1.56 (shown in orange) and Daniil Medvedev odds will now of lengthened to 2.8 (shown in yellow).

From here the pathway can then go to either 30-0 or 15-15 and again you can look at both these boxes to see what the approx. odds will be if either of these scores occurs and so on throughout the game. Therefore, the ‘game matrix’ basically allows you to look ahead at future points of a game to give you an idea of what the expected odds will be as it progresses, this can be invaluable when deciding your strategy and is certainly very important for pinpointing ideal entry and exit points.


How can this be used to find trading opportunities?

Just as in the previous example I’m looking to identify and get into positions that offer low risks but high rewards. This time I’m looking at a backing strategy which is obviously best used with players who have a strong serve so this is often suited to men’s matches and especially when on grass were the serve is more dominant - so it’s ideal for men’s matches at Wimbledon!

(To find strong servers you can use one of the many Tennis stat sites available on the internet to identify both male and female players who have a high service hold percentage).

This time I’m looking at the match between Sam Querrey and Daniil Medvedev. Before doing anything always remember to click the ‘Calibrate’ button at the top of the ‘Tennis Trader’ window at the start of each new game.

If we now look at the game matrix again in the image below Querrey is about to serve (indicated by the tennis ball icon being on his side). Currently his odds are 1.59 and using the game matrix can see if he holds this service game he will shorten to about 1.52 (7 ticks) the risk if he loses his serve will see him drift out to about 2.09 (46 ticks). So even though he has a strong serve and will hold a large percentage of the time backing now is not that good from a risk Vs reward perspective as one loss (a break of serve) will wipe out the profits from several wins and maybe more! So, we need to try and pick a better entry points if were to make the most from this type of trade over the long term.

What we can do is look across the ‘Game Matrix’ to try and find if there is a time in the game were the risk Vs reward may shift more to our favour. In this game if Querrey starts badly and drops the first few points his odds will drift out to 1.75-1.92. Therefore, if we try to back around here our risk if he does still lose will now be less than 20 ticks, whereas if he does come back and hold the reward can now be 30+ ticks profit. Making this a far better proposition than backing at the start of the game.

By using that information, I have placed two back bets on the ladder, one at 1.75 and the other at 1.84 (of course Querrey may just romp through the game and the bets don’t come close to getting matched but if that happens no harm done simply cancel them and wait for the next game).

Tennis Trader (1).jpg

Once the game gets underway Querrey does drop the first two points and the score went 0-30, so his odds drifted out and the waiting back bet at 1.75 was matched. Fast forward a little further and the score is now 15-40 and the second back bet waiting at 1.84 is also just about to be matched.

Tennis Trader (2).jpg

As that gets matched we can now refer back to the game matrix to double check what may happen to the odds during the the rest of the game and start planning how & when to best exit this trade.
I have opted to exit my trade in two halves, for the first half if the score goes to 40-40 I have placed a £50 lay at 1.63 (just above the predicted odds of 1.61 to ensure I get matched). The second half of my lay stake has been placed at 1.55 which I should get matched if the score goes A-40.

Grid 2.JPG

I could place the second lay around 1.52 but to get that matched it would need Querrery to win the game and although I’m confident he will do so I’d rather play it safe and ask for 3 ticks less and exit and green up if he gets to ‘Adv’ (you can begin to see how the tennis trader and game matrix gives you a huge advantage in knowing where to position your bets for the best value).

The reason for exiting my trade in two halves is so that if I get my first exit bet matched at 1.63 it will reduce my overall exposure (liability) so even if Querrery did then lose the game before my second lay at 1.55 was matched my loss would be a minimal amount.

As the game continued it did indeed go Adv-40 to Querrery, the lay bet at 1.63 had already been matched when 40-40 and moments after the screen shot below was taken the second lay bet at 1.55 was also matched, I then clicked the ‘green up’ figure in the trade profit column to green up for an equal profit of £9.68

Tennis Trader (3).jpg

This trade from beginning to end that took under 3mins and is something that can be repeated several times each match. The important things with this strategy is to first identify a player with a strong serve then use the game matrix in Tennis Trader to identify if there is a decent time to enter and exit a trade during a particular game.

If you don’t like the fast pace of trading game then the ‘Set Matrix’ works in the same but as the name suggests it shows the predicted odds throughout a set depending on the pathway of the game score as it progresses.

See this video for the top five tips when trading tennis markets
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