Tennis Trading : Trying to find an edge

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Posts: 55
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:49 pm

Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:11 pm

So I have been looking at the A Zverez vs M Cilic match.

I found some stats on ATP world tour site from the current season.

They are equally matched in holding serve within 1% so neither more likely really to break service.

However Cilic seems to buckle more under pressure he loses ties breaks 7% more than Zverez and doesn't save or convert break points as much as Cilic 4% or 6% difference in those two respectively.

Is this the sort of edge that would lead to back Cilic or laying Zverez come a tie break.

Or if Zverez gets 30-0 points up in a game on Cilic's serve backing him with the chance that he will convert more often than he should.

Any thoughts on this sort of approach very welcome, thanks

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Posts: 791
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:25 pm

i personally stay away from tie-breaks.
my take on it would be looking at slightly different things and trade on that.
i.e.who is the taller player?
the taller player is likely to have a stronger faster serve especially if he is heavier.
this would mean that he is more likely to return more shots as he has less distance to travel.
less distance to travel means he will be fitter if the match is a very long.
so on this basis i may be looking at a break of serve in the second set from the taller player.
what i am getting at is many traders have many different reasons for entering or exiting a trade.
that is just one example. stats can get you so far but in the end it's your decision what to do.

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Posts: 3805
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:02 pm

Angelbaby, It will no doubt influence your choices in a positive way but knowing the likelihood of a situation occurring is only useful if you know how that is reflected in the potential price movement.

Trading is no different to any other form of speculation, it's all about value, risk/reward, whether it's over a second or a whole event.

If you're 60:40 it'll move 50:50 or if you're 50:50 it'll move 60:40 then you're a profitable trader, that really is all there is to it. You get better at guessing the future and you get better at knowing the value of the upside vs downside.

The odds in tennis trader are only appropriate, no underlying player stats, the market however is populated with real tennis gurus so I'd image any 'edge' you think you have will already be factored into the price as they would have already taken any perceived value. If you see value in backing player A, and so do others, then it's fastest finger first gets the money. That's why people are so protective about specific edges they have.

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