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are you sure that 5 set match with tiebreak and without aren't switched? I created my calculator for tennis which works only with set that have tiebreaks and when I put in some states, results matched with TT "5set match tie break not allowed in final set" (I put fixed probabilities). also I read somewhere that having the tiebreak always benefits the underdog, which doesn't seem to be the case in TT.
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