Tennis odds

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Point2Point
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:59 am

I know a thing or two about Tennis odds and bumped into this post elsewhere on the ether by a self proclaimed Tennis trading "expert".

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Rules: 15-40 or 0-40 are the ONLY entry points. DO NOT be tempted to gamble on 30-40. You will lose more often than you win

Green up after the break

If the server pulls back to 40-40 hedge for the loss and wait for the next opportunity.

If the set has gone to a tie break wait until one player is 2 mini breaks up ( ie has won 2 points against the serve ) then back that player.

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How does this strategy play out: -

Scenario 1 - Players of a similar ability

Odds at 0-40 will be 1.73 for the match. If a break happens odds will move to 1.63 +10 ticks. If it gets to 40-40 it will be 1.97 -26 ticks, ouch!

Therefore, what is the chance of getting that break point?

The chance of winning the next point against serve is 32%, the chance of the next two points going with serve ends up at 46%. The other scenario is any one of two of the next points but even if the server wins the next point then it's still a 32% chance of getting that break.

So you have a 32% chance of +10 ticks and a 46% chance of -26.

This has to assume the break occurs at 0-0 in the first set. If you want me to work out the odds at different points in the match, feel free to post up and I can do that for you.
Sushi
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2009 12:35 pm

That's quite interesting.

Do you have scenario 2 and 3???? :?:
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Cran
Posts: 80
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 5:49 pm
Location: Cambridge

where does the 32% come from?

If the receiver has already won 3 of the last 4 points (15-40) wouldn't they have a 75% chance of winning the next point...?

If they had won 3 of the last 3 (0-40) then an even better chance of winning one of the next two points?

Is the 32% chance of receiver wins next points just from 0-40? and 15-40? or is a general chance of the receiver winning the next point from all scores/positions?
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Cran wrote:where does the 32% come from?

If the receiver has already won 3 of the last 4 points (15-40) wouldn't they have a 75% chance of winning the next point...?

If they had won 3 of the last 3 (0-40) then an even better chance of winning one of the next two points?

Is the 32% chance of receiver wins next points just from 0-40? and 15-40? or is a general chance of the receiver winning the next point from all scores/positions?
I agree with all that

The figure of 32% is not reliable

What about the odds?
If a player is still heavy odds on to win the chances of them saving break points have to be pretty good
Point2Point
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:59 am

"The figure of 32% is not reliable"

It comes from ATP tour stats! The ATP stats are very good you just need to do the maths from there. It's tough work but it will tell you what the up and downside is on each strategy.

From there you just need to watch the match and get a handle on how each player is doing. If you look at the Murray match yesterday, the trainer came on for Del Porto which changed things significantly. Big opportunity.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/MatchFacts.aspx
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Point2Point wrote:"The figure of 32% is not reliable"

It comes from ATP tour stats! The ATP stats are very good you just need to do the maths from there. It's tough work but it will tell you what the up and downside is on each strategy.

From there you just need to watch the match and get a handle on how each player is doing. If you look at the Murray match yesterday, the trainer came on for Del Porto which changed things significantly. Big opportunity.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/MatchFacts.aspx
Sorry, my "not reliable" didn't paint an accurate picture of what I meant

ATP are displaying stats that apply to all matches throughout the year, but it doesn't include specifics that keen traders would act upon

For example, if a player was already spanking somebody's arse, there's a better chance of getting the break than in a close encounter. Pure stats can sometimes be a little misleading
Point2Point
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:59 am

Hence my comment on reading the match, but ON AVERAGE this is what would happen and the stats show the odds match theory very well.
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Cran
Posts: 80
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 5:49 pm
Location: Cambridge

So is 32% the chance of winning a point against serve from all points ever recorded?

Or is 32% the chance of winning a point against serve from 0-40/15-40 positions?
Point2Point
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:59 am

At the start of this particular match there was a 32% chance of winning a point against serve.
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