Today's Tennis

Post Reply
User avatar
Cards37
Posts: 234
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:40 am
Location: Canberra, Australia

I got absolutely destroyed overnight! Krunic and Pouille in particular cost me big time.

As an aside - does anyone else subscribe to Dan Weston's sheets?
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Looking for a lively 2nd set in Ostapenko's QF after a fun 1st set
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Really hoping Pliskova takes this 2nd set now
Charts taken at 5-5 in set 2
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

And she does just that :D
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
mjay
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 5:58 pm

Dan's sheets are very good, although I have found that much more research needs to be done around the figures - for instance whether the break backs are attained on particular surfaces / against particular opponents or when favourite or not.

They can however be a short cut to getting a feel for particular players and especially those you are not so familiar with. They also provide a reality check to the real break back percentages involved in swing trading tennis as opposed to the generic lay at end of set youtubers.
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

That really was the match that just kept giving, for a moment I even though we were going to get 3 sets with 12 games each
mjay
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 5:58 pm

Pliskova seems the perfect foil for the Ostapenko type of player i.e. almost clinically non-flashy.

Ostapenko reminds me of Cibulkova a few years ago and the trading charts are also becoming very familiar!
Today's matches ATP and WTA look less than inspiring however
User avatar
Black Ice
Posts: 258
Joined: Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:35 pm
Location: Newmarket Suffolk

Interesting charts Dallas..thanks for posting. Presume u just traded Ostapenko..or did you trade both?
markyfletcher27
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:49 am

Hi,

Newish to trading and new to the forum but have some (possibly a lot) of questions re the above Ostapenko v Pliskova match and would certainly appreciate some feedback to some/all if possible. Apologies in advance for the length of this post also!

Firstly what kind of profiling would you do before a match and what would have lead you to this one in particular?

I subscribe to Dan Weston's sheets and looking at the stats for this match in a pretty simplistic way I was thinking ..... Pliskova - V good server, below average return, Ostapenko - Average server, very good return. The stats also led me to believe that the Stuttgart clay is quite a lot faster than most so my take was that I would be expecting less pressure on service games than average. This would take this match out of my comfort zone to trade as I prefer more return orientated games. I would qualify this a little as Ostapenko's stats also suggested that she would be more likley to be involved in pretty swingy matches, losing and recovering service breaks within sets more often than most.

Secondly what kind of positions would you have taken during the match and why?

Looking at the graphs above and the point by point data leads me to the following potential entry points in set 1 (very easy with hindsight I know and feel free to correct any errors).

1) Lay Ostapenko @ c1.40 after first break of serve in set 1. It looks like the price hit a low of about 1.28 in set 1 which presumably would have been at *0-3 and *15-30 in Pliskova's second service game. Based on SP I would have estimated that Ostapenko would have traded at about 1.20 at the end of set 1 if she had simply cruised to the set. So opening at 1.40 would have had 20 tick downside with maybe 40 tick bounce back to 1.80 if Pliskova broke to go back on serve. Given that Ostapenko held her first service game to love and the stats discussed above I think I would have found it difficult to take the position at 1.40 with any real confidence.

2) Lay Pliskova @ c1.65 (bit of a guess as difficult to see clearly on the graph) at 4-4 and up 2 break points at *15-40 on Ostapenko serve in set 1. Based on SP I'm guessing Pliskova would have hit maybe 1.40 if she ended up taking the first set 6-4 (so looking at a 25 tick loss) and would have bounced out to around 2.20 if Ostapenko ends up holding to go 5-4 up. With hindsight this may have been a slightly easier position for me to take as the upside would appear to be a lot more. However if Pliskova simply takes one of the next two points to break serve it basically kills the position. Additionally Ostapenko held to deuce in the previous service game and was broken the one before so it looks like there had certainly been a slight momentum shift to Pliskova and Ostapenko was struggling on serve.

I guess the questions I have are around whether or not you would have or did take any of these positions (or any different ones) and what the thought process would have been in terms of match characteristics and risk v reward.

Additionally and on a slightly separate note would you say that when it comes to in-play tennis trading it's very much quality over quantity. I'm pretty sure in the pre off racing markets for example the experts are able to trade almost every race in a given afternoon. My experience with tennis is that it's not necessarily like that and match selection is very important. Or are the more experienced tennis traders able to find good positions in most matches?

Just trying to get a feel for people's experiences and opinions.

Cheers
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Hi Marky

I've not done enough tennis trading to comment on your specific questions but if I see a ladies match where 'on paper' they are evenly matched but the prices suggest otherwise i.e. there is an odds on favourite, I would look to lay the shorter price player if they aren't dominating within the first few games.

Your best bet (no pun intended) would be to visit the Bet Angel YouTube channel and work your way through the Tennis playlist - there are some great videos in there and some strategies as well.

There is also Tennis Trader to use within BA Professional as well.

In terms of selection, some advice I was given is to only enter a market with at least £50,000 matched.

I would agree with you with regards to match selection - far better to profile one match properly and trade it well than try and trade all of them. That said, you could use automation to trade other matches - there are some videos on the BA channel about that.

I use Tennis Abstract and have found that to be useful in terms of the stats they provide.

Iambic
markyfletcher27
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:49 am

Thanks for the advice.

I have had a look at some of the tennis videos on YouTube but perhaps time to revisit and find a few more. In terms of stats I'm ok with the stats I have but will certainly have a look at the Tennis Abstract info as suggested. I guess I'm a little unsure as to whether my approach should be very stats based and to have a plan before the match even starts or to be more "feel" based and react to events in the match without necessarily having a set plan beforehand.

What I tend to do now is have a set plan for a match which maybe along the lines of lay player A if a set and break up. If that situation doesn't occur then I would basically sit on my hands for the entire match. And if that situation did occur I would be tempted to take the position even if my reading of the match (based on the actual action) was against that. Thought process being a) stats suggest it's a good play and b) I've sat through the whole match waiting for the situation to occur so of course I should take it.

I wonder if the approach should be more to have an idea of what might be good positions but watch the action and then if I feel like a player is going to get a break of serve or looks to be getting on top take a position then almost regardless of stats. It's a difficult one as in one way I'd like to be more involved in more matches and not waiting for specific situations but in another way of course I want to feel that I have some sort of edge when I do enter in what is clearly a very competitive market place.

A final thought, whilst I probably agree that it's best to trade one match well than a lot of matches ok I wonder if this is an ideal approach to trading in general and particularly in relation to trying to build a trading bank. Making fewer trades would likely lead to more variance in results and an over reliance on one or two matches. Whereas when doing volume based trading (eg 20 horse races per day) then you will be less reliant on individual results as long as the strike rate and average profit/loss are in your favour.
User avatar
northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

markyfletcher27 wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:41 pm
I guess I'm a little unsure as to whether my approach should be very stats based and to have a plan before the match even starts or to be more "feel" based and react to events in the match without necessarily having a set plan beforehand.
You have to find your own unique approach through experimenting, reviewing the results of your experiments, finding out what works better and in which situations.

Guardian Tennis automation can be a huge help to test your theories over hundreds of matches in a month.

The following podcast interview with Dan Weston could be of interest:
https://soundcloud.com/businessofbettin ... -on-tennis
mjay
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 5:58 pm

The problem with watching one match with eyes on all the others is that you tend to start dabbling in positions you really shouldn’t. Conversely investing in just one match takes great discipline as you are itching to get something from the match even though you know you are just in effect gambling.
It is frustrating when you “lose” on the match you have invested so much time in and then see your strategy would have worked in the 3 other matches played at the same time! It can drive you a little crazy in fact. This is the difference between tennis and racing; here the next opportunity could be along in 10 minutes.

I feel you are correct in having a plan for each match – this is recommended by Dan Weston – I believe he has video on preparing a trading “script”. To really utilise his daily sheets I really feel you need to invest in his break back products – which are expensive. Even then I have spent a lot of hours poring over old matches to identify surface preference, performance as favourite / underdog etc.

Perhaps with this in mind you could identify one part of a match – say a set and a break and that could be your sole entry point if you identify a fighter or chocker. This can then be automated, even if you are watching the match, enhancing discipline.

If you watch YouTube videos you’d think all you had to do was lay a WTA player when she breaks serve. The stats are more sobering and you have to get your head around the risk/reward basis. For instance in the first set in WTA the player broken recovers the break about 55% of the time. However, this depends upon surface /motivation and whether they are evenly matched. Yes, you will see WTA matches when neither can hold serve and it looks easy, but this is selective memory. You must remember the market almost expects a break back so tick movements are smaller that ATP – you really need a break and hold and even that might not be enough.

You see many graphs of WTA provided as evidence of what a good i.e. easy sport it is to trade, but I could post dozens where the player has simply trained and there is no upside. A blanket approach will not work in my view.

Recovering serve from a set and a break occurs about 43% of the time. Very roughly if you laid at this point sub 1.15 for a £5 liability you would look to make £4 if the player breaks back, £8-9 if they can then hold, but roughly £20-25 if they can turn it round and take the set. You need these wins in my opinion in WTA.

For me the Ostapenko match had one potential entry and that was laying Ostapenko at the end of the 1st set if she won it. Pliskova breaks first when she has lost the 1st 50% of the time which is 13% higher than average – Ostapenko on the other hand only breaks first 52% of the time having won the first – 13% lower than average. Maybe you could have removed a little liability when Pliskova broke and waited for the second and set winning break.

Dan’s approach is very much that one match does not matter; it is about having the percentages in your favour over the whole season.

Having said all that, with experience you know that certain match-ups will create the potential for big swings – Ostapenko vs Cibulkova perhaps. Often you will identify a WTA player who is on a streak of fight backs – I loved watching Cornet a few years ago – tears and pills at the end of set when you thought all was lost and then a comeback!

With regards to match selection – I am experimenting with automation and would advise caution in the early rounds and less prestigious tournaments as you might not get matched / be able to exit and there are often gaps in the market as liquidity is often not great and might be more a question of asking for a price.

I hope this may be of some help.
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

There are probably more stats available for tennis than any other sport and practically everyone has them, it can, therefore, be very easy to become stat blind.

Having said that I use automation to alert me to scorelines on just about every tournament and have the early rounds of major tourneys fully automated using stats but that's to gain small% over the long term with no input required.

When manually trading I'd prefer to step away from stats slightly, for example in the case of the recent Ostapenka match shes been a cash cow ever since RG last year and although I have every possible stat on her I couldn't tell you any of them off the top of my head and didnt use any in that match, when I arrived at it moments before it started I knew where I'd be looking for opportunities, what I'de do in a given situation and even how I expected it to pan out then it was just a case of seeing how much of that happened while finding the right risk/reward situations along the way
markyfletcher27
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:49 am

Thanks for the replies guys, very helpful stuff. I will have to have a look at some of the automation and alerts type files which I can see are in another forum. Had a listen to the podcast mentioned, think I'd heard it before and it certainly seems to advocate a very disciplined statistical approach. Anyway onwards and upwards as they say, see how the trading goes next week. Looks like a fair few lowish quality tournaments to pick through.
Post Reply

Return to “Tennis Trading”