Today's Tennis

[ShaunWhite]

I suspect Dallas knows the conversation rate for match point for every player on every surface.

[Derek27]

I suspect it would have been higher than 1.01.

[Dallas]

Federer dumped out the Miami Open in his first match

Chart from final set tiebreaker

[Dallas]

Just a week ago Federer threw away three championship points having traded at 1.01 in the final of the Indian Wells

Today in his 1st match of the Miami Open (which he is defending champion) he trades briefly at 1.01 again before losing to a unseeded

[Derek27]

When the first point of a game goes against serve, is there usually an overreaction in the market or is the price change usually justifiable?

Reminds me of the early days of Betfair when a footballer got a red card - the market reacted as though a goal had been scored!

[Dallas]

When the first point of a game goes against serve, is there usually an overreaction in the market or is the price change usually justifiable?

Usually justifiable but the movement all depends on the odds at the time and more importantly the time of the match.
Final sets if deciders are very volatile with some big swings

[Derek27]

Thanks Dallas.

[mjay]

I would suggest fatigue is an issue with Federer at the moment - he was ground down by Del Potro who can be a strong opponent
when in form. I really don't think he was physically or mentally up for another fight yesterday.
Interestingly the same could apply to Del Potro, who although younger could definitely be classed as fragile. He won the 1st and then lost the 2nd against Haase the other day - his odds went from 1.07 to 1.63.

I suggest Halep was also a victim of too many recent matches against a rugged opponent in Radwanska.

It is something to consider when trying to catch these short price reversals.

[MemphisFlash]

williams.JPG

[Derek27]

When the first point of a game goes against serve, is there usually an overreaction in the market or is the price change usually justifiable?

Usually justifiable but the movement all depends on the odds at the time and more importantly the time of the match.
Final sets if deciders are very volatile with some big swings

I see what you mean. This is the sort of over reaction I was thinking of (1st set market) but it happened near the end of the set.

Set 1 - Schwartzman v Raonic.jpg

[Dallas]

When the first point of a game goes against serve, is there usually an overreaction in the market or is the price change usually justifiable?

Usually justifiable but the movement all depends on the odds at the time and more importantly the time of the match.
Final sets if deciders are very volatile with some big swings

I see what you mean. This is the sort of over reaction I was thinking of (1st set market) but it happened near the end of the set.Set 1 - Schwartzman v Raonic.jpg

My comment was regarding the match odds market in-play, I never bother with the set markets etc there is just no money in them

[mjay]

A real rogues gallery match today - Kyrigios vs Fognini. Potential for big swings or just toys out of the pram and down tools
Kyrigios has a dreadful record of retiring "injured" if he loses the first set when strong favourite. Raonic is another
who struggles when behind a set.

On the other hand Del Potro, Cilic and Berdych are all better than average at winning a set if they lose the first.
Two of their opponents are also quite handy at getting a set when behind against strong favourites - Isner and Tiafoe.

Pliskova and Svitolena also have better than average ability to get a set if they lose the first, although their opponents, Barty and Ostapenko
also have good figures and will be available at short odds if they lose the first.

[Dallas]

Pliskova and Svitolena also have better than average ability to get a set if they lose the first, although their opponents, Barty and Ostapenko
also have good figures and will be available at short odds if they lose the first.

Ostapenko was a real cash cow last year, her young and fearless attitude just created opportunity after opportunity, not traded her much this year but looking forward to when Clay season starts next month

[mjay]

I'm not sure if people are not more wise to her now, but she has outstanding 3rd set break back stats, especially late in the set
and gets a set back when she has lost the first when underdog a remarkable amount of the time - these assets are I suppose
the very definition of "cash cow"!

[Trading96]

Wang is a great battler, never gives the point up, is she fit enough to keep it going..