Tennis Trading : Today's Tennis

Post Reply
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 9288
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Contact:

Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:14 pm

Just a week ago Federer threw away three championship points having traded at 1.01 in the final of the Indian Wells

Today in his 1st match of the Miami Open (which he is defending champion) he trades briefly at 1.01 again before losing to a unseeded
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Derek27
Posts: 3546
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:46 am

When the first point of a game goes against serve, is there usually an overreaction in the market or is the price change usually justifiable?

Reminds me of the early days of Betfair when a footballer got a red card - the market reacted as though a goal had been scored!

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 9288
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Contact:

Sun Mar 25, 2018 12:44 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:46 am
When the first point of a game goes against serve, is there usually an overreaction in the market or is the price change usually justifiable?

Usually justifiable but the movement all depends on the odds at the time and more importantly the time of the match.
Final sets if deciders are very volatile with some big swings

Derek27
Posts: 3546
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:07 pm

Thanks Dallas.

mjay
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 5:58 pm

Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:35 pm

I would suggest fatigue is an issue with Federer at the moment - he was ground down by Del Potro who can be a strong opponent
when in form. I really don't think he was physically or mentally up for another fight yesterday.
Interestingly the same could apply to Del Potro, who although younger could definitely be classed as fragile. He won the 1st and then lost the 2nd against Haase the other day - his odds went from 1.07 to 1.63.

I suggest Halep was also a victim of too many recent matches against a rugged opponent in Radwanska.

It is something to consider when trying to catch these short price reversals.

User avatar
MemphisFlash
Posts: 755
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:20 pm

williams.JPG
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Derek27
Posts: 3546
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:51 am

Dallas wrote:
Sun Mar 25, 2018 12:44 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:46 am
When the first point of a game goes against serve, is there usually an overreaction in the market or is the price change usually justifiable?

Usually justifiable but the movement all depends on the odds at the time and more importantly the time of the match.
Final sets if deciders are very volatile with some big swings
I see what you mean. This is the sort of over reaction I was thinking of (1st set market) but it happened near the end of the set.
Set 1 - Schwartzman v Raonic.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 9288
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Contact:

Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:03 am

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:51 am
Dallas wrote:
Sun Mar 25, 2018 12:44 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:46 am
When the first point of a game goes against serve, is there usually an overreaction in the market or is the price change usually justifiable?

Usually justifiable but the movement all depends on the odds at the time and more importantly the time of the match.
Final sets if deciders are very volatile with some big swings
I see what you mean. This is the sort of over reaction I was thinking of (1st set market) but it happened near the end of the set.Set 1 - Schwartzman v Raonic.jpg
My comment was regarding the match odds market in-play, I never bother with the set markets etc there is just no money in them

mjay
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 5:58 pm

Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:23 pm

A real rogues gallery match today - Kyrigios vs Fognini. Potential for big swings or just toys out of the pram and down tools
Kyrigios has a dreadful record of retiring "injured" if he loses the first set when strong favourite. Raonic is another
who struggles when behind a set.

On the other hand Del Potro, Cilic and Berdych are all better than average at winning a set if they lose the first.
Two of their opponents are also quite handy at getting a set when behind against strong favourites - Isner and Tiafoe.

Pliskova and Svitolena also have better than average ability to get a set if they lose the first, although their opponents, Barty and Ostapenko
also have good figures and will be available at short odds if they lose the first.

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 9288
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Contact:

Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:20 pm

mjay wrote:
Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:23 pm


Pliskova and Svitolena also have better than average ability to get a set if they lose the first, although their opponents, Barty and Ostapenko
also have good figures and will be available at short odds if they lose the first.
Ostapenko was a real cash cow last year, her young and fearless attitude just created opportunity after opportunity, not traded her much this year but looking forward to when Clay season starts next month

Post Reply

Return to “Tennis Trading”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests