Tennis Modelling

[whitebloodcell]

I am trying to create a tennis simulator. Specifically I am trying to make a 'random' simulator so that I can see how many times streaks of wins or losses occur, and then compare this to historical data to see if 'The Hot Hand Effect' exists or not. i.e. Do streaks of wins or losses occur more or less often than would be expected by chance.

I create a pool of players and assign them a strength score between 0 and 10 from a normal distribution of mean 5 standard deviation 2.

When I come to pair players together and decide the outcome, my supervisor suggested using a logit model/logistic regression. I am not quite sure how this works practically/mathematically though. I thought to somehow input the difference in strength scores into the logit model to give me a probability to put into a cointoss, with the probability of a head, i.e. a win for Player A, being equal to the output of the logit model. 'Somehow' is obviously very vague as I do not know how this would work, or even if it mathematically makes any sense - Does anyone have any ideas?

[Redhead]

These should help you out

http://www.strategicgames.com.au/excel.pdf

http://blog.danmachine.com/2012/02/on-p ... match.html

http://deltadata.wordpress.com/2013/12/ ... in-tennis/

Let me know if you need anything else