1st AUGUST 2014 KITZBUHEL PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

Today's action on the clay in Kitzbuhel starts at 11am UK time with two rain-delayed quarter finals to be played first, before the semi-finals later today.

I must say that I find it ridiculous that the Kitzbuhel organisers need to get everything crammed in by Saturday to reward players making either poor or surface orientated scheduling decisions, as they all need to fly over after playing on a clay event at altitude, to North America to play a series of hard court tournaments.

Both quarter-finals start at 11am with the Goffin/Gonzalez semi-final due to start at 12:30, and presumably the two other quarter-final winners playing after that.

The quarter-final between Juan Monaco (above, pictured) and Andreas Seppi is an intriguing one and I think there is likely to be breaks and swings here.

Both players win 2-0 a fair bit less than average, so laying the winner of the first set could yield dividends, whilst my projected hold percentages indicate both players' serves are vulnerable.

Monaco edges two projected holds so his status as favourite is justified, although I feel 1.68 on him is a little short. However, Seppi's projected hold is low enough to warrant attention for opposing his serve as well - the Rolling Projected Holds in today's Tier Two Spreadsheet indicate that if either player is struggling to hold, breaks are more likely than average to follow.

Furthermore, both players are worse than average at maintaining break leads, and much better than average (particularly Monaco) at recovering break deficits, so laying the player a break up here also appeals. Further entry points could be a laying either player if they're a set and break up today.

The second quarter-final is between 2013 champion Marcel Granollers and home favourite Dominic Thiem and I'm surprised to see Thiem at 1.73 in what I make to be pretty much an even money match.

There's a cigarette paper between the projected holds and very little between break point 'clutch' scores and break-back percentages as well. All of these are around average so actual trading points are limited, but with Granollers strong in deciders and having an excellent record at taking at least a set when an underdog, I quite like the 2-1 correct scoreline in the Spaniard's favour here.

The first semi-final scheduled is between Challenger sensation David Goffin and Challenger regular Maximo Gonzalez and based on clay stats in Challengers, there's no comparison between these two.

Goffin has held 10.9% more and broken 13.5% more in Challengers in the past year and this makes his price of 1.34 very generous indeed. He also has a very strong record at covering both set and game handicap lines - according to the Ultimate Pre-Match Betting Spreadsheet - when favourite and backing him in either guise looks a solid plan today.

As for trading angles, I feel opposition of the Gonzalez serve, with Goffin's return game being superb currently, is the way to go here.

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

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