6th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

Tonight sees the third day of the Masters/Premier events in Canada and as per the rest of the week so far, action gets underway at 4pm UK time in Toronto for the ATP event, and at 5pm for the WTA tournament in Montreal.

Matches are again plentiful so traders can be very selective with the matches, and situations, they choose to get involved in this evening.

Today I will focus on the matches involving players that fit the criteria for my two new articles which assess when it is viable to lay players at low prices in-play - all stats are available, as always, via the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet .

In the ATP, there are no surprises regarding the player with the highest combined score. Today's Stat of the Day on the main page shows Michael Russell loses a break lead 61.5% of the time in the last 12 months at ATP level, and that's due to a combination of having a poor serve and generally choking.

Naturally, the American veteran is heavy underdog against David Ferrer (1.11) which actually represents several ticks of value towards the Spaniard, according to my projected hold model.

With Ferrer having a superb return game, Russell's projected hold is very low for an ATP hard court event, and his combined score when a break up is in the stratosphere - only Klara Koukalova has a higher combined score out of the WTA today!

If there's a situation where we can lay Russell at low prices, when a set and break up, or a break up in the deciding set, this should be one of extreme positive expected value.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Russell's serve blindly when the match is on serve and he is priced under 3.00.
Lay Russell when a set and break up in set 2
Lay Russell when a break up in set 3

Also fitting the criteria here is Tim Smyczek. The younger American takes on another Spaniard, Feliciano Lopez tonight, and Lopez starts at around 1.44.

That's maybe a few ticks short for me but nothing outstanding, but all the stats indicate Smyczek should be opposed in-play.

Whilst Lopez only breaks 17.4% on hard court in the last 12 months, Smyczek has one of the worst serves on the ATP Tour, holding a mere 71.4% on today's surface - 7.8% below the ATP hard court mean - in the last 12 months. This gives Smyczek a relatively low projected hold for today, and should he be struggling to hold, laying his serve when the match is on serve is viable.

Furthermore, Smyczek isn't much worse than his compatriot Russell when a break up. He's lost a break lead 51.7% in the last 12 months, and with Lopez recovering a break deficit 31.6%, the combined score of 83.3% on Smyczek is more than enough to warrant laying him when a break up.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Smyczek when a break up in set 1
Lay Smyczek when a set and break up in set 2
Lay Smyczek when a break up in set 3

The final ATP match I want to examine from a trading perspective is Yen-Hsun Lu against Tomas Berdych.

Berdych starts as a heavy 1.19 favourite for this which probably slightly flatters him against a competent opponent, but all in-play stats favour the Czech.

Breaking 28.8% on hard courts in the past 12 months, Berdych breaks considerably more than the 20.8% ATP mean, and this reduces Lu's projected hold to around 10% below average.

Both players are strong at recovering deficits, with Lu doing so 44.0% and Berdych 51.7% in the last 12 months. However, Berdych is much better at protecting break leads, losing a lead a mere 15.6% of the time, whilst Lu does so 28.6%.

This difference of 36.1% for Berdych between his deficit recovery and lead loss percentages makes him the best in-play player on the ATP Tour.

Based on the break-back stats, a combined score of 80.2% on Lu, in addition to a low projected hold, makes it highly viable to lay Lu in various situations today.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Lu's serve when a set up but the set is on serve in set 2
Lay Lu when a set and break up in set 2
Lay Lu when a break up in set 3

In the WTA, there are various matches that also fit the bill for viable trading situations, based on my new articles:-

Watson (3.31) vs Cibulkova (1.40)

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Watson when a break up in set 1
Lay Watson's serve when a set up but the set is on serve in set 2 (unless she holds to love in the previous service game)
Lay Watson when a set and break up in set 2
Lay Watson when a break up in set 3

Wozniacki (1.21) vs Koukalova (5.34)

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Koukalova's serve when a set up but the set is on serve in set 2 (unless she holds to love in the previous service game)
Lay Koukalova when a set and break up in set 2
Lay Koukalova when a break up in set 3

Putintseva (6.72) vs Williams V (1.15)

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Putintseva's serve when a set up but the set is on serve in set 2 (unless she holds to love in the previous service game)
Lay Putintseva when a set and break up in set 2
Lay Putintseva when a break up in set 3


Good luck in the markets and stay green!

http://www.tennisratings.co.uk