8th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

It's the quarter-finals of the Masters/Premier events in Canada and as per the rest of the week so far, action gets under-way at the later time of 6pm UK time in Toronto for the ATP event, and at the usual 5pm for the WTA tournament in Montreal.

Firstly I wanted to do a quick review of the recommended trades from Wednesday (I was travelling most of the day yesterday so had no time to write a preview).

The following entry point triggers were hit:-

Lay Lu's serve when a set up but the set is on serve in set 2 - 1 WINNING TRADE (first game of set 2)
Lay Watson when a break up in set 1 - 1 LOSING TRADE
Lay Watson's serve when a set up but the set is on serve in set 2 (unless she holds to love in the previous service game) - 2 LOSING TRADES
Lay Watson when a set and break up in set 2 - 1 WINNING TRADE
Lay Watson when a break up in set 3 - 1 WINNING TRADE

From the individual service game lays, we had one winner and two losers. With the winner being in the ATP, this should balance itself out to be not far from break-even.

From the break up lays, we had two winners and one loser, for huge profit. Indeed, Watson price went almost straight down from 3.50 starting price to 1.02, before Cibulkova fought back.

Onto today's matches. I've picked out several matches that interest me based on the stats - as always the statistics mentioned for every match on the card are available daily in the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet.
Third on court on the men's card today at around midnight UK time is the clash between home favourite Milos Raonic and Feliciano Lopez.

I quite like the Spaniard's chances of keeping this close at least and Raonic looks a little short at 1.31 for this.

Clearly, with both players being strong servers, there isn't much likelihood of this match having plentiful amounts of breaks and therefore I wanted to focus on a way of getting the most out of the stats for this match, and getting with Lopez on serve.

Unsurprisingly both players have a high projected hold but Lopez has the higher break point 'clutch' score. With the pre-match value on him, according to my model, backing Lopez when losing on his serve looks to be the best trading avenue. This has much less risk than scalping the serve, which far too high-risk and low-reward generally.

Recommended Trade:-

Lay Raonic when he is 0-30 or 15-40 up on the Lopez serve. (Exit point at 30-30, 40-30 or game to either player, depending on tolerance of risk - personally I like clearing liability at 30-30 and leaving all profit on Lopez until the end of the service game)

When this match comes to a conclusion, David Ferrer and Roger Federer take to the court and Federer is defending an incredible 15-0 head to head record over his 'bunny'. This is the main reason for his 1.20 starting price.

Federer has improved his return game this year after a large blip in 2013 and in the last 12 months on hard court, he has broken 28.2%. Ferrer has broken 30.9% but it's the Swiss player with the much stronger serve, holding 89.5% to 78.7% on the surface in the same time period.

The net result of this is that Ferrer has a low projected hold and laying his serve in some situations, if the price allows us, looks viable.

This approach can also be taken on the Spaniard if he leads by a break with a combined score of 77.4%. As Federer's return stats have improved, so has his break deficit recovery percentage, and at 47.3% his stats are one of the best on Tour. Ferrer is marginally better at this (48.6%) but Federer is much more solid when a break up, losing this lead just 13.6% in the last 12 months.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Ferrer when a break up in the 1st set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Ferrer when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Ferrer when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Ferrer's serve when a set up and the set is on serve in the 2nd set (unless he holds the previous service game to love) (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not - with Ferrer having a high break point clutch score I do not mind taking some or all liability out at 0-30, 0-40 or 15-40, depending on your tolerance of risk)

There are several matches in the WTA that also interest me but I'll leave those to the spreadsheet subscribers - certainly there are some very viable trading avenues in the Suarez Navarro/Venus Williams and the Victoria Azarenka/Agnieszka Radwanska matches.

Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

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