12th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

Today sees the first round matches concluded in the Cincinnati Masters/Premier events and several second round matches are also on the card, so there's plenty of options for traders this evening.

Firstly I wanted to do a quick review of the recommended trades from the last preview on the 8th August - I haven't had a chance to do this as I was away with family all weekend.

The following entry point triggers were hit:-

Lay Raonic when he is 0-30 or 15-40 up on the Lopez serve. 1 WINNING TRADE, 0 LOSING TRADES (game 5 of the 5th set)

There were no entry point triggers hit in the Ferrer vs Federer match.

Onto today's matches. I've picked out several matches that interest me based on the stats - as always the statistics mentioned for every match on the card are available daily in the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet.
Quite strangely, the relatively quick conditions at Cincinnati appear to have more effect on the ATP players, with the men holding 2.2% above hard court mean last year, but the women held 0.7% less. This is also seen in the projected hold figures today, which have few men with low projected holds.

One player that does have a low projected hold is James Ward. He takes on the more experienced Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and they are first on court at 4pm UK time this afternoon.

It's the Spaniard that starts as favourite, although I feel he is generously priced at 1.59 against someone who is basically a Challenger player. Ward's ATP stats are very unimpressive, and from the matches I've seen, appears to be someone who has a high propensity to choke in winning situations.

Whilst I don't have in-play stats on Ward, due to lack of data, I feel he should be opposed if he trades at short prices today. Garcia-Lopez recovers a break deficit a strong 42.3% of the time, and based on the surface stats, I've calculated Ward's stats using a backtested ratio (spreadsheet subscribers were informed of this ratio last week) and this calculation indicates Ward should lose a break lead 38.3% of the time. This would be more than enough to warrant laying the Englishman in various situations today.

Recommended Trade:-

Lay Ward when a break up in the 1st set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Ward when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Ward when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Ward's serve when a set up and the set is on serve in the 2nd set (unless he holds the previous service game to love, 15 or 30) (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not - with Ward having a high break point clutch score I do not mind taking some or all liability out at 0-30, 0-40 or 15-40, depending on your tolerance of risk)

Roberto Bautista-Agut is another with a decent break deficit recovery percentage (40.0% in the last 12 months) and he takes on the Slovak, Martin Klizan, tonight.

It's the Spaniard, who has made great strides in the last 12 months, who is favourite at around 1.30 and again I make that a little value - these players would be much closer on clay.

With Bautista-Agut breaking opponents 27.6% in the last 12 months, and Klizan not especially strong on serve, this gives Klizan a low projected hold. Furthermore, with Klizan losing a break lead 32.6% in the last 12 months - making him just a little worse than the ATP mean - the combined score on Klizan is 72.6, which places him in the best scenario - scenario 6 - in my ATP article which discusses laying players at low prices.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Klizan when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Klizan when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Klizan's serve when a set up and the set is on serve in the 2nd set (unless he holds the previous service game to love) (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not - I do not mind taking liability out or hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk)

The final match I want to discuss is the WTA clash between Garbine Muguruza and Annika Beck (above, pictured). Muguruza starts at 1.40 and that's some value based on my model, which priced her at 1.27.

Beck has arguably the worst serve on the WTA tour and has held just 46.6% on hard courts in the last 12 months. Against a strong returner like Muguruza, who has broken 45.0% on the surface in the same time period, she should have major issues holding serve consistently.

Furthermore, Beck has lost a break lead 63.2% in the last 12 months which is absolutely horrific - 18.8% above the WTA top 100 mean. Whilst Muguruza's break deficit recovery stats are only around average at 46.5%, this is easily enough to also place Beck in situation 6 in the WTA version of the low price lay article.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Beck when a double break up in the 1st set (Clear liability when the first break-back comes, full exit point either when the set is back on serve or the end of the set)
Lay Beck when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Beck when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Beck's serve when a set up and the set is on serve in the 2nd set (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not - I do not mind taking liability out or hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk)

Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

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