13th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

Second round matches are concluded in the Cincinnati Masters/Premier events tonight, so again there's plenty of options for traders this evening with 14 ATP and 13 WTA matches on the schedule for this evening.

Since starting the 'recommended trades' feature, I've been adding a review of those trades and here's the review of yesterday's recommendations. Please note that these are not necessarily the trades that the stats recommend the most, as the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet highlights many other positions on a daily basis.

The following entry point triggers were hit:-
Garcia-Lopez vs Ward:-

Lay Ward when a break up in the 1st set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) - 1 LOSING TRADE
Lay Ward when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) - 1 LOSING TRADE

Bautista-Agut vs Klizan:-

Lay Klizan when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) - 2 WINNING TRADES

Muguruza vs Beck:-
Lay Beck when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) - 1 LOSING TRADE
Lay Beck's serve when a set up and the set is on serve in the 2nd set (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not - I do not mind taking liability out or hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk) - 1 WINNING TRADE, 2 LOSING TRADES (if liability removed/hedged was taken at 0-40 - 1st game of 2nd set then it would be 2 WINNING TRADES, 1 LOSING TRADE)

Overall a pretty mixed bag yesterday, with Garcia-Lopez disappointing but the Klizan match being a big positive. The Muguruza/Annika Beck match was mixed, with variance not on our side - Beck faced break points in 9/13 service games but crucially not in the final two service games of the match.

We continue this vein today with the German - who I intend to write an article on in the near future - taking on Jelena Jankovic. Jankovic has broken 45.8% in the last 12 months on hard court and unsurprisingly this forces Beck's projected hold very low again.

In fact it's possible to rinse and repeat yesterday's situation for this match with Jankovic strong at recovering break deficits - 54.2%.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Beck when a double break up in the 1st set (Clear liability when the first break-back comes, full exit point either when the set is back on serve or the end of the set)
Lay Beck when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Beck when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Beck's serve when a set up and the set is on serve in the 2nd set (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not)

For these trades I do not mind taking liability out or hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk)

Kurumi Nara is another whose serve is vulnerable today, against a much higher ranked opponent. She faces Agnieszka Radwanska, who starts at 1.22 today and that looks about right.

The Pole holds 7.5% more and breaks 5.0% more on hard courts in the last 12 months and when you consider that it's often against a higher calibre of opponent, it is clear that the Japanese player will struggle to hold consistently today, and she has a projected hold bang on the 50% mark.

Furthermore, Nara is very poor when a break up, losing leads 52.2% of the time, and with Radwanska's deficit recovery excellent at 56.5%, opposing Nara's serve in a variety of guises today should work well.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Nara when a double break up in the 1st set (Clear liability when the first break-back comes, full exit point either when the set is back on serve or the end of the set)
Lay Nara when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Nara when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Nara's serve when a set up and the set is on serve in the 2nd set, unless she holds to love in the previous service game (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not)

For these trades I do not mind taking liability out or hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk.

One match in the ATP which interests me is the clash between Fabio Fognini and Lleyton Hewitt with both players capable of a very high level or utter dross. However, there's only one player you'd want in the trenches with you and that's the veteran Aussie, who represents some value at around 2.24 today.

Both players are much stronger on return than serve and this leads to two low projected holds, particularly so on Fognini, who also has an atrocious break lead loss percentage of 40.5%. For a player around the top 20, that's horrific and testament to his lack of concentration in matches. Hewitt, who as I mentioned, is renowned for his fighting abilities despite a declining level, is excellent at recovering break deficits, doing so 47.6% in the last 12 months - pretty much elite level. On that basis, plus with my model favouring Hewitt, laying Fognini a break up is mandatory.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Fognini when a break up in the 1st set (Clear liability when the first break-back comes, full exit point either when the set is back on serve or the end of the set)
Lay Fognini when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Fognini when a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Fognini's serve when a set up and the set is on serve in the 2nd set unless he holds to love in the previous service game. (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not)

For these trades I do not mind taking liability out or hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk.

The final match I want to look at is probably a bit of a surprise, and that's Milos Raonic versus Robby Ginepri. I was really impressed with Ginepri's mentality against a more inexperienced opponent in the latter stages of the third set against Dominic Thiem yesterday and he'll need all of that again today against an opponent likely to be serving bombs.

However, the quick conditions coupled with Raonic's poor return stats (although they've improved greatly this year) mean Ginepri also has a high projected hold for this match, and actually I think he represents a touch of value at around 7.60 - I priced him at 6.00 for this.

In addition to this, the American veteran has a high break point 'clutch' score so should be able to save his fair share of break points, so opposing Raonic when he makes inroads into the Ginepri serve looks to be a viable trading avenue.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Raonic when he is 0-30 or 15-40 up on the Ginepri serve. (Exit point at 30-30, 40-30 or game to either player, depending on tolerance of risk - personally I like clearing liability at 30-30 and leaving all profit on Ginepri until the end of the service game)


Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

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