18th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

After several Sunday matches, it's the main opening day in our two tournaments this week, which see a 48-man field take to the courts at Winston-Salem, with 28 participating in the WTA Premier event in New Haven, and there's plenty of action tonight with 21 matches on the schedule.

With the US Open starting a week today, many will feel player motivation this week may be a little questionable, especially from the big names, so it will be interesting to see how this pans out this week.

At Winston-Salem in 2012, backing favourites blindly to a £100 stake generated a loss of £139 (-3.09% ROI) whilst in 2013, doing so generated a profit of £265. Overall a profit of £126 was obtained backing favourites.

At New Haven in 2012, favourite success was stellar, with £1024 profits recorded from £100 stake. Only three favourites - Wozniacki, Agnieszka Radwanska and Glatch - lost, with the former two losing by way of retirement. In 2013, a loss of £58 ensued.

Generally, these historical stats show that either the market took account for possible player motivation and offered bigger prices on favourites, or a lack player motivation is a myth this week.

In the WTA matches, in 2013 9/26 completed matches went 3 sets (34.6%) whilst in 2012 this figure was much lower (4/25 = 16.0%). The two-year percentage of 25.5% is around 7% below WTA mean.

In the ATP matches, 14/46 went 3 sets in 2012 (30.4%) and in 2013 this figure was 20/43 (46.5%). The two-year percentage of 38.2% is slightly above the ATP mean of around 36%.

On this basis, it's tough to say that players don't fight from a set down the week prior to the US Open either, so I think it's very unfair to make any assumptions on player motivation in this situation.


Since starting the 'recommended trades' feature, I've been adding a review of those trades and here's the review of Friday's recommendations. Please note that these are not necessarily the trades that the stats recommend the most, as the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet highlights many other positions on a daily basis.

The following entry point triggers were hit:-
Sharapova vs Halep:-

Lay Sharapova's serve when the set is on serve in the 1st set, the 2nd set if she wins the first, and the 3rd set, but only in the opening game of the first set, or if she was broken in her previous service game, or held to 15 or 40.

FIRST SET:- GAME 1 (WINNING TRADE), GAME 3 (WINNING TRADE)
SECOND SET:- NO ENTRY POINT TRIGGERS MET
THIRD SET:- GAME 2 (WINNING TRADE), GAME 4 (LOSING TRADE), GAME 6 (LOSING TRADE), GAME 8 (LOSING TRADE), GAME 10 (LOSING TRADE)

Eventually Sharapova sorted her serve out after a horrendous start. However she still produced 3 winning trades out of the 7 (42% breaks) which is above expectation for WTA breaks on hard court (36.7%). Furthermore, Sharapova getting broken to 0-2 in the final set was a trade with huge price movement.

Overall, a positive match.

In today's action, there are a number of intriguing matches. I mentioned on Twitter earlier that I'm quite a big fan of 'no-mark' type matches - the type where player ability is quite limited, and under exposed.

Therefore those with detailed knowledge of players, or those with an ability to adjust Challenger stats to ATP stats, both in terms of surface hold/break stats and in-play stats, using a variety of ratios, are in a good spot. I spent many hours backtesting such scenarios so a card like tonight's at Winston Salem is of great interest.

Opening proceedings is the flavour of the summer, David Goffin and the diminutive Belgian takes on the Austrian veteran, Jurgen Melzer.

In terms of form these two are poles apart but on hard court stats, it's Melzer with the clear edge. In addition to this, he's defending champion and would face a big ranking position drop should he lose today.

Despite this he starts as a 2.80 underdog and I make that value. Goffin has never impressed on hard courts, and his recent success has all come on clay. He still has a lot to prove to me on hard courts and this level and I like opposing him today. Furthermore, after coming through qualifiers, despite a straightforward looking 7-5 6-1 win over WR286 Jason Jung, Goffin was broken 3 times, so his weak serve was clearly under pressure from a very limited opponent.

Melzer has managed to break 22.8% on hard court in the last 12 months and that's a little above average. He also has a very good record in deciding sets and recovering break deficits (39.2%). With Goffin slightly poor when a break up (has lost a break lead 34.8%) I like opposing him in various situations today:-

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Goffin's serve in the first set, when the set is on serve, the second set when a set up and it's on serve, or the final set, when it's on serve (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not)
Lay Goffin when a break up in the 1st set (Clear liability when the first break-back comes, full exit point either when the set is back on serve or the end of the set)
Lay Goffin when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Goffin's serve when a set up and the set is on serve in the 2nd set unless he holds to love in the previous service game. (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not)

For all these trades I do not mind taking liability out 0-30 or 15-40, and hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk)

The other match I want to focus on from an ATP perspective is the clash between two clay-courters in Martin Klizan and Federico Delbonis.

However, whilst it's fair to say both are more comfortable on the dirt, Klizan is much more competent on hard surfaces and Delbonis is 0-6 on hard court at ATP level - holding 74.6% and breaking an atrocious 5.4%. Clearly he has had little success pressurising opponents' serve at this level.

Klizan is generally very strong at saving break points, doing so 62.4% in the last 12 months, despite winning just 60.3% of service points. This may sound an unremarkable stat, but it's not. The average ATP player saves 2.8% less break points than they win service points, and this is related to the previous supremacy that the returner has had in that service game. So, if a player wins more break points than service points, this indicates excellent mental strength in this area and this also contributes to Klizan's high break point 'clutch' score for today's match.

Furthermore, with Delbonis having terrible return stats on hard court, Klizan's projected hold is high, and I also make him a little value at the pre-match 1.46.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Delbonis when he is 0-30 or 15-40 up on the Klizan serve. Can be performed in all service games unless Klizan was broken in the previous service game.

Exit point at 30-30, 40-30, 40-40 or game to either player, depending on tolerance of risk - personally I like clearing liability at 30-30 or 40-40 and leaving all profit on Klizan until the end of the service game.

In the WTA, there's some fascinating matches and one match that the Tier Two Spreadsheets have highlighted as worthy of note is the clash between Carla Suarez Navarro and Irina Begu.

Both players are much stronger on return than serve and Begu in particular should struggle to hold serve today against a higher ranked opponent.

Suarez Navarro starts at around 1.43 which I make a touch of value, and Begu's projected hold is very low indeed. With Begu being much stronger on the clay, she's only held 46.3% on hard courts in the last 12 months, so against a good returner who is excellent at winning when expected to do so, she should struggle today.

The break lead loss and break deficit recovery stats make it not quite viable enough to lay the Romanian a break up (it has some positive expectation, but not enough for me) but if this trade was performed, especially when a set and break up in the second set, or a break up in the final set, it wouldn't be horrendous by any means from a long-term perspective.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Begu's serve when the set is on serve in the 2nd set if she wins the first, and the 3rd set, unless she held her previous service game to love.

For this trade I do not mind taking liability or hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk.


Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

http://www.tennisratings.co.uk

[98lewisj]

cheers Dan