US Open Tennis 2014

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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Euler wrote:Disappointing womens final.
Isn't it the same every time :roll:
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Redhead
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Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:01 am

convoysur-2 wrote:REDHEAD
i just want to say thanks for your tennis posts ,i have wanted to learn about trading tennis forever so by reading your tips and watching the market im slowly making progress , no greens yet but im playing small stakes and learning,,
Thanks again
Marc


Cheers Marc, I'm glad we could help you on your journey, feel free to drop into our chat room if you need anymore help mate.
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Redhead
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8th SEPTEMBER 2014 MATCH PREVIEW

Today sees the conclusion of the US Open with the men's final, with two players yet to reach a Slam final competing for the trophy.

Nishikori vs Cilic - Not before 10pm UK time:-

Who would have picked these two players to be in the final? Given that the top ten have dominated ATP Grand Slams for the good part of a decade, to have two players outside the top ten in their first Grand Slam final is something few would have predicted.

This is especially the case given that Nishikori went into the tournament with a toe injury that saw him on crutches several weeks before the event, and with the Japanese player having a notoriously frail body, his run - and particularly his semi-final four set win over Novak Djokovic - was most unexpected.

Cilic is also interesting to analyse with the Croat having much worse in-play stats since his ban last year, but picking up more consistent results, with a boosted service hold percentage doing him wonders.

Nishikori has the slight edge in the market, trading at 1.88 currently and I think that represents some value, with my model making him 1.70. He takes a 5-2 head to head lead into the match and has won their last three meetings. Furthermore, he shades two close projected holds which are a touch below ATP average and has the better break point 'clutch' score.

Also worth bearing in mind is that Nishikori is excellent when a break down - recovering a break deficit 48.2% of the time in the last 12 months. Cilic is much worse at 23.1%, and both players are relatively solid when a break up, Nishikori losing this lead 21.6% and Cilic 26.1%. Overall this gives Cilic a combined score of 74.3% when a break up and this - and other factors - mean we can look at opposing him when leading tonight.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Cilic when a set and break up (Exit point - full hedge if Nishikori breaks back, for profit, full hedge if Cilic takes the set, for a loss)

Lay Cilic when two sets and a break up (Exit point - clear liability if Nishikori breaks back, and full hedge if Nishikori takes the 3rd set, for profit, full hedge if Cilic takes the set, for a loss)


Please note that all trades are just recommendations and I can take no liability for any losses incurred.


Good luck in the markets and stay green!

http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Two rather dull finals to close proceedings.
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LeTiss
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Hugely disappointing finals - I lost money on both of them
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