Smashing way to start the thread: -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9T_K-Xyc3no
US Open Tennis 2014
26th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS
It's day two of the US Open and matches start in around half an hour. Last night there were a fair few surprise results and bizarre goings on - Sergiy Stakhovsky failing to break for his first 17 break points was an example of that - and the Chat Room, which was buzzing with 55 members in - certainly enjoyed the action with Paire/Benneteau's craziness and a couple of fully successful Vesnina Trades being some of the highlights...
With 24 men's and 32 women's matches on the agenda tonight it's important that we are selective and the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet is highly useful for that purpose, allowing us to identify the matches with high positive expected value, and here are some of the recommended trades from those matches. Naturally, with 56 matches scheduled, there are many decent opportunities and the Spreadsheets highlight many other positions on a daily basis.
With there being an abundance of matches, I'm just going to give some recommended trades for today for a couple of the ATP and WTA matches this evening...
ATP Recommended Trades:-
Lay Golubev when a set and break up against Fognini. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Golubev when 2-0 up in sets against Fognini. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Golubev when 2 sets and a break up against Fognini. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay either Melzer and Granollers if they are a set and break up against each other. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay either Melzer and Granollers if they are 2-0 up in sets against each other. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay either Melzer and Granollers if they are 2 sets and a break up against each other. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Clearly in these spots we are looking at 'averaging down' positions from a set and break or after the second set if the match goes against us, and that's a solid strategy in these scenarios. On that basis I'd recommend keeping stakes relatively small at the set and break stage, and then looking to lay again at lower prices.
WTA Recommended Trades:-
Lay Watson a set and break up against Cirstea (Exit points - Clear liability or full hedge when the break-back comes, full hedge if Cirstea takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Scheepers a break up against McHale in either the 1st or 3rd sets (Exit points - full hedge when the break-back comes, or the end of the set/match, for a loss)
Lay Scheepers a set and break up against McHale (Exit points - Clear liability or optional full hedge when the break-back comes, full hedge if McHale takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
It's day two of the US Open and matches start in around half an hour. Last night there were a fair few surprise results and bizarre goings on - Sergiy Stakhovsky failing to break for his first 17 break points was an example of that - and the Chat Room, which was buzzing with 55 members in - certainly enjoyed the action with Paire/Benneteau's craziness and a couple of fully successful Vesnina Trades being some of the highlights...
With 24 men's and 32 women's matches on the agenda tonight it's important that we are selective and the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet is highly useful for that purpose, allowing us to identify the matches with high positive expected value, and here are some of the recommended trades from those matches. Naturally, with 56 matches scheduled, there are many decent opportunities and the Spreadsheets highlight many other positions on a daily basis.
With there being an abundance of matches, I'm just going to give some recommended trades for today for a couple of the ATP and WTA matches this evening...
ATP Recommended Trades:-
Lay Golubev when a set and break up against Fognini. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Golubev when 2-0 up in sets against Fognini. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Golubev when 2 sets and a break up against Fognini. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay either Melzer and Granollers if they are a set and break up against each other. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay either Melzer and Granollers if they are 2-0 up in sets against each other. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay either Melzer and Granollers if they are 2 sets and a break up against each other. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Fognini takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Clearly in these spots we are looking at 'averaging down' positions from a set and break or after the second set if the match goes against us, and that's a solid strategy in these scenarios. On that basis I'd recommend keeping stakes relatively small at the set and break stage, and then looking to lay again at lower prices.
WTA Recommended Trades:-
Lay Watson a set and break up against Cirstea (Exit points - Clear liability or full hedge when the break-back comes, full hedge if Cirstea takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Scheepers a break up against McHale in either the 1st or 3rd sets (Exit points - full hedge when the break-back comes, or the end of the set/match, for a loss)
Lay Scheepers a set and break up against McHale (Exit points - Clear liability or optional full hedge when the break-back comes, full hedge if McHale takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
27th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS
Day three of the US Open starts in just under an hour and we are down to a more manageable workload with 18 men's and 16 women's matches scheduled tonight. Something that we've talked about in the Chat Room is the importance of avoiding trading many matches at the same time, and avoiding burnout, and the reduction in matches allows this to happen naturally, as opposed to making it a conscious effort, which is not always easy for some.
However, it's important that we are selective and the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet is highly useful for that purpose, allowing us to identify the matches with high positive expected value, and here are some of the recommended trades from those matches.
Firstly here is a summary of the recommended trades from yesterday:-
Fognini vs Golubev:- No trades triggered.
Melzer vs Granollers:- Lay Granollers when a set and break up - 1 winning trade, 1 losing trade. Lay Granollers when 2-0 up in sets - 1 losing trade. Lay Granollers when 2 sets and a break up - trading out at 15-40 would have yielded a profit on this trade, holding on until break would have been a loss.
Overall a mixed bag with set 2 being a winner and set 3 a loser.
Watson vs Cirstea:- No trades triggered.
Scheepers vs McHale:- Lay Scheepers a break up against McHale in the 3rd set - 1 winning trade.
Profit from this as the one trigger met was a winning trade.
Now I am going to give my thoughts on a few of today's matches with statistical trading recommendations...
A men's match that might not be on everyone's radar is the clash between two qualifiers in Ilya Marchenko and Marco Chiudinelli.
Marchenko starts at around 1.70 and for me that is wrong, as I make Chiudinelli the marginal favourite, with the Swiss holding 5.2% and breaking 3.1% less in Challengers on hard court in the last 12 months. What is also apparent is that Marchenko has a weak serve, holding a mere 72.0% from that sample. This would make him a candidate to have his serve opposed and we should see a greater than average chance of his price rising if he trades low.
Using some expectation ratios it's possible to estimate the combined break up/down score between these two players and this equates to around 80.3 on Marchenko, which would be well above ATP average. Therefore laying Marchenko when leading also appeals from these stats.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Marchenko when the match is level but he is a break up (Exit point when the break-back comes for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Marchenko when a set and break up (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Chiudinelli takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Marchenko when 2-0 up in sets (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Chiudinelli takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Marchenko when 2 sets and a break up (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Chiudinelli takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
The other ATP match I wish to focus on is the clash between the veteran Aussie, Lleyton Hewitt (above, pictured) against Tomas Berdych. It's a tough opener for the Czech but he starts as a 1.25 favourite here, which looks about right.
Hewitt's serve stats are deteriorating at a fair rate and it would be a surprise if he wasn't broken quite often, with his projected hold not much over the WTA hard court mean.
Furthermore he loses a break lead a poor 36.5%, and with Berdych the best on tour for recovering a break deficit (51.5%) in the last 12 months, a combined score of 88 is gigantic for the ATP.
Laying Hewitt is only really an attractive proposition if he gets in front so the recommended trades are based on that scenario.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Hewitt when a set and break up against Berdych. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Berdych takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Hewitt when 2-0 up in sets against Berdych. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Berdych takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Hewitt when 2 sets and a break up against Berdych. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Berdych takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
I would also encourage some form of clearing some liability at 0-30/0-40/15-40 on the Hewitt serve in these scenarios.
In the WTA matches today, there is one match I have particularly high hopes for some positive trades, and that is the clash between Mirjana Lucic-Baroni and Shahar Peer.
Both women are capable of greatly varying levels and huge inconsistency but the stats like the Croat here - she's held 11.1% more and broken 1.7% less in the last 12 months on hard court - and she starts at just under evens for this. I wasn't too impressed by Peer in the first round with Johanna Konta unable to take her chances and with her low projected hold here, there are a number of avenues that appeal...
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Peer's serve in the 1st set when the set is on serve, in the 2nd set when she's a set up and the set is on serve, and the 3rd set for smaller stakes when the set is on serve (Exit point - at the end of the service game for profit or loss)
Lay Peer when a set and break up (Exit point - if she gets broken back, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
Day three of the US Open starts in just under an hour and we are down to a more manageable workload with 18 men's and 16 women's matches scheduled tonight. Something that we've talked about in the Chat Room is the importance of avoiding trading many matches at the same time, and avoiding burnout, and the reduction in matches allows this to happen naturally, as opposed to making it a conscious effort, which is not always easy for some.
However, it's important that we are selective and the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet is highly useful for that purpose, allowing us to identify the matches with high positive expected value, and here are some of the recommended trades from those matches.
Firstly here is a summary of the recommended trades from yesterday:-
Fognini vs Golubev:- No trades triggered.
Melzer vs Granollers:- Lay Granollers when a set and break up - 1 winning trade, 1 losing trade. Lay Granollers when 2-0 up in sets - 1 losing trade. Lay Granollers when 2 sets and a break up - trading out at 15-40 would have yielded a profit on this trade, holding on until break would have been a loss.
Overall a mixed bag with set 2 being a winner and set 3 a loser.
Watson vs Cirstea:- No trades triggered.
Scheepers vs McHale:- Lay Scheepers a break up against McHale in the 3rd set - 1 winning trade.
Profit from this as the one trigger met was a winning trade.
Now I am going to give my thoughts on a few of today's matches with statistical trading recommendations...
A men's match that might not be on everyone's radar is the clash between two qualifiers in Ilya Marchenko and Marco Chiudinelli.
Marchenko starts at around 1.70 and for me that is wrong, as I make Chiudinelli the marginal favourite, with the Swiss holding 5.2% and breaking 3.1% less in Challengers on hard court in the last 12 months. What is also apparent is that Marchenko has a weak serve, holding a mere 72.0% from that sample. This would make him a candidate to have his serve opposed and we should see a greater than average chance of his price rising if he trades low.
Using some expectation ratios it's possible to estimate the combined break up/down score between these two players and this equates to around 80.3 on Marchenko, which would be well above ATP average. Therefore laying Marchenko when leading also appeals from these stats.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Marchenko when the match is level but he is a break up (Exit point when the break-back comes for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Marchenko when a set and break up (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Chiudinelli takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Marchenko when 2-0 up in sets (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Chiudinelli takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Marchenko when 2 sets and a break up (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Chiudinelli takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
The other ATP match I wish to focus on is the clash between the veteran Aussie, Lleyton Hewitt (above, pictured) against Tomas Berdych. It's a tough opener for the Czech but he starts as a 1.25 favourite here, which looks about right.
Hewitt's serve stats are deteriorating at a fair rate and it would be a surprise if he wasn't broken quite often, with his projected hold not much over the WTA hard court mean.
Furthermore he loses a break lead a poor 36.5%, and with Berdych the best on tour for recovering a break deficit (51.5%) in the last 12 months, a combined score of 88 is gigantic for the ATP.
Laying Hewitt is only really an attractive proposition if he gets in front so the recommended trades are based on that scenario.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Hewitt when a set and break up against Berdych. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Berdych takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Hewitt when 2-0 up in sets against Berdych. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Berdych takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Hewitt when 2 sets and a break up against Berdych. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Berdych takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
I would also encourage some form of clearing some liability at 0-30/0-40/15-40 on the Hewitt serve in these scenarios.
In the WTA matches today, there is one match I have particularly high hopes for some positive trades, and that is the clash between Mirjana Lucic-Baroni and Shahar Peer.
Both women are capable of greatly varying levels and huge inconsistency but the stats like the Croat here - she's held 11.1% more and broken 1.7% less in the last 12 months on hard court - and she starts at just under evens for this. I wasn't too impressed by Peer in the first round with Johanna Konta unable to take her chances and with her low projected hold here, there are a number of avenues that appeal...
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Peer's serve in the 1st set when the set is on serve, in the 2nd set when she's a set up and the set is on serve, and the 3rd set for smaller stakes when the set is on serve (Exit point - at the end of the service game for profit or loss)
Lay Peer when a set and break up (Exit point - if she gets broken back, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
Never realised this: -
It's an interesting angle on things. Looked at injuries and stuff a lot in Tennis but this is the first time I've come across this sort of thing.At almost 18 years old, Halep decided that her large bust was interfering with her game. She underwent breast reduction to reduce her bust size to 34C from 34DD. She explained the decision, saying, "It's the weight that troubles me. My ability to react quickly, my breasts make me uncomfortable when I play. I don’t like them in my everyday life, either. I would have gone for surgery even if I hadn’t been a sportswoman."[18] She also experienced back pain.[19] She later revealed her reduced bust size at the French Open in May 2010.[18] Since the surgery, she has moved up over 450 places in the world rankings.[19]
Win or 'bust'; you cant have both !Euler wrote:Never realised this: -
It's an interesting angle on things. Looked at injuries and stuff a lot in Tennis but this is the first time I've come across this sort of thing.At almost 18 years old, Halep decided that her large bust was interfering with her game. She underwent breast reduction to reduce her bust size to 34C from 34DD. She explained the decision, saying, "It's the weight that troubles me. My ability to react quickly, my breasts make me uncomfortable when I play. I don’t like them in my everyday life, either. I would have gone for surgery even if I hadn’t been a sportswoman."[18] She also experienced back pain.[19] She later revealed her reduced bust size at the French Open in May 2010.[18] Since the surgery, she has moved up over 450 places in the world rankings.[19]
Hi guys, I hope your all having a profitable slam and here's today's preview
29th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS
Day five of the US Open starts this afternoon, and there are 16 ATP matches, as that tournament plays down to the last 32 tonight, and a further 8 round of 32 WTA matches.
Firstly here is a summary of the recommended trades from Wednesday:-
Marchenko vs Chiudinelli:-
Lay Marchenko when the match is level but he is a break up (Exit point when the break-back comes for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) - 2 winning trades
Great profit for followers from this match...
Hewitt vs Berdych:- No trades triggered.
Peer vs Lucic-Baroni:-
Lay Peer's serve in the 1st set when the set is on serve - 3 losing trades (although one she gave set point so there was profit potential) in the 2nd set when she's a set up and the set is on serve - 1 winning trade (game 1 of set 2) and the 3rd set for smaller stakes when the set is on serve (Exit point - at the end of the service game for profit or loss) - 1 winning trade (game 2 of set 3)
A poor first set but those losses were easily recouped by the bigger profits of set 2 and set 3. Many people in the Chat Room - access is free for anyone who has ever purchased a TennisRatings product - laid Peer at the start of the 2nd set for a longer-term set duration trade, with many triggers recommending it, and that also worked well...
Now I am going to give my thoughts on a few of today's matches with statistical trading recommendations...
On Wednesday we did superbly identifying two players in a low profile match that should give break leads back, and had low projected holds, in Marchenko/Chiudinelli. I want to continue on that vein for the opening preview which focuses on one of the later matches tonight, which shows a lot of edges.
Teymuraz Gabashvili was friendless in the market against Santiago Giraldo in the first round and I must admit the 'obviously wrong' price put me off a little, as I wasn't the only one thinking it was too good to be true. He takes on Alexandr Kudryavtsev in an all-Russian clash tonight, where I don't think I'm also the only one thinking this won't be decided in straight sets...
Gabashvili - with the greater ATP experience - starts at 1.57 and I make that about right, as he edges two low projected holds. I'd expect there to be a fair few breaks in this, based on the numbers, with both players much better on return than serve.
Also apparent is that Gabashvili isn't great when a break up, losing this lead 39.0% in the last 12 months, and this is around 9% above ATP mean. I don't have in-play stats on Kudryavtsev, with him plying his trade mainly on the Challenger Tour, but I can estimate an expected figure, and this leads to combined scores of 73.3 on Kudryavtsev, and 70.0 on Gabashvili - both above the 61.68 ATP mean, although I prefer it to be over 71 from my research. On that basis we can lean towards Kudryavtsev, with the lower projected hold, a little more.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Kudryavtsev when the match is level but he is a break up (Exit point when the break-back comes for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Kudryavtsev when a set and break up (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Gabashvili takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Kudryavtsev when 2-0 up in sets (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Gabashvili takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Kudryavtsev when 2 sets and a break up (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Gabashvili takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
The other ATP match I wish to focus on is the clash between a volatile player that I think is way too short in the market, against a fairly average player, who is capable of forcing the price up at least.
Fabio Fognini has significantly improved his hard court record this year but has had a lot of close matches, as his mediocre hold/break stats suggest. He starts at 1.31 against Adrian Mannarino and I make this very short, without even considering the fact that he can go walkabout mentally on a regular basis.
Fognini, as most will know, is much better on serve than return, but Mannarino has broken 25.1% on hard court this year and that should enable him to pressurise the Fognini serve on occasion.
Furthermore, as has been highlighted on here before, Fognini's break lead loss percentage of 40.5% is horrific for a player around the top 20, and actually this contributes to a combined score of 72.1 - enough to warrant laying the Italian when a break up here.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Fognini when a break up against Mannarino and the match is level in sets (Exit points - full hedge if Mannarino gets the break back, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Fognini when a set and break up against Mannarino. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Mannarino takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Fognini when 2-0 up in sets against Mannarino. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Mannarino takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Fognini when 2 sets and a break up against Mannarino. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Mannarino takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
In the WTA matches today, there has been some discussion in the Chat Room about the match between Roberta Vinci and Shuai Peng, with the consensus being that the Chinese player is too short here at around 1.52. Even though I didn't feel there were many angles here I want to assess it.
Vinci hasn't had her best year but both ladies are capable of widely varying levels. Projected holds are a shade above ATP mean with Peng edging matters there, so that limits our trades, with Vinci's being almost bang on average. Break back combined scores are well below average, so laying players a break up in this match isn't recommended at all.
I was considering a play of laying Peng a set up, but the statistics in the Ultimate Pre-Match Betting Spreadsheet indicate Vinci doesn't take at least a set enough in matches, so that's looking like a no-go as well.
Sometimes you get these matches where you think a player is too short but you can't work out a way to oppose them, apart from a pre-match bet, and this is one of those situations.
Recommended Trades:-
None.
The final match I want to analyse is the clash between Maria Sharapova and Sabine Lisicki.
Sharapova starts the match at 1.24 and that's very short in my opinion. It's probably just small enough for me to be interested in a pre-match lay to back, and that's definitely an option here.
The stats indicate that Sharapova isn't near her previous best (see below), and dropping the first set to Alexandra Dulgheru in the 2nd round was very worrying for her backers. In that we saw yet again how much the market favours Sharapova in these spots, expecting her to turn the match around, which is only partially the case.
She actually doesn't turn around break deficits as much as her illustrious peers, but she's excellent at recovering from set deficits. For a trader, these are two very different things, and these separate entities need to be treated as such...
The following table illustrates how her hard court stats have significantly dropped off in 2014:-
2012 2013 2014
Hold % Break % Combined % Hold % Break % Combined % Hold % Break % Combined %
73.2 49.5 122.7 78.3 51.1 129.4 66.4 43.5 109.9
There is a clear decline from the last two years and Lisicki's hold/break stats aren't broadly dissimilar today - 68.3% holds and 38.5% breaks - just 3.1% combined percentage below Sharapova's.
Lisicki also took the first set three times in their last four clashes and everything points to a lay to back on the Russian here.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Sharapova pre-match (Exit points, clear liability if she goes a break down, full hedge at the end of the first set for profit, full hedge at the end of the first set for a loss if Sharapova wins the set).
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
29th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS
Day five of the US Open starts this afternoon, and there are 16 ATP matches, as that tournament plays down to the last 32 tonight, and a further 8 round of 32 WTA matches.
Firstly here is a summary of the recommended trades from Wednesday:-
Marchenko vs Chiudinelli:-
Lay Marchenko when the match is level but he is a break up (Exit point when the break-back comes for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) - 2 winning trades
Great profit for followers from this match...
Hewitt vs Berdych:- No trades triggered.
Peer vs Lucic-Baroni:-
Lay Peer's serve in the 1st set when the set is on serve - 3 losing trades (although one she gave set point so there was profit potential) in the 2nd set when she's a set up and the set is on serve - 1 winning trade (game 1 of set 2) and the 3rd set for smaller stakes when the set is on serve (Exit point - at the end of the service game for profit or loss) - 1 winning trade (game 2 of set 3)
A poor first set but those losses were easily recouped by the bigger profits of set 2 and set 3. Many people in the Chat Room - access is free for anyone who has ever purchased a TennisRatings product - laid Peer at the start of the 2nd set for a longer-term set duration trade, with many triggers recommending it, and that also worked well...
Now I am going to give my thoughts on a few of today's matches with statistical trading recommendations...
On Wednesday we did superbly identifying two players in a low profile match that should give break leads back, and had low projected holds, in Marchenko/Chiudinelli. I want to continue on that vein for the opening preview which focuses on one of the later matches tonight, which shows a lot of edges.
Teymuraz Gabashvili was friendless in the market against Santiago Giraldo in the first round and I must admit the 'obviously wrong' price put me off a little, as I wasn't the only one thinking it was too good to be true. He takes on Alexandr Kudryavtsev in an all-Russian clash tonight, where I don't think I'm also the only one thinking this won't be decided in straight sets...
Gabashvili - with the greater ATP experience - starts at 1.57 and I make that about right, as he edges two low projected holds. I'd expect there to be a fair few breaks in this, based on the numbers, with both players much better on return than serve.
Also apparent is that Gabashvili isn't great when a break up, losing this lead 39.0% in the last 12 months, and this is around 9% above ATP mean. I don't have in-play stats on Kudryavtsev, with him plying his trade mainly on the Challenger Tour, but I can estimate an expected figure, and this leads to combined scores of 73.3 on Kudryavtsev, and 70.0 on Gabashvili - both above the 61.68 ATP mean, although I prefer it to be over 71 from my research. On that basis we can lean towards Kudryavtsev, with the lower projected hold, a little more.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Kudryavtsev when the match is level but he is a break up (Exit point when the break-back comes for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Kudryavtsev when a set and break up (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Gabashvili takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Kudryavtsev when 2-0 up in sets (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Gabashvili takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Kudryavtsev when 2 sets and a break up (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Gabashvili takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
The other ATP match I wish to focus on is the clash between a volatile player that I think is way too short in the market, against a fairly average player, who is capable of forcing the price up at least.
Fabio Fognini has significantly improved his hard court record this year but has had a lot of close matches, as his mediocre hold/break stats suggest. He starts at 1.31 against Adrian Mannarino and I make this very short, without even considering the fact that he can go walkabout mentally on a regular basis.
Fognini, as most will know, is much better on serve than return, but Mannarino has broken 25.1% on hard court this year and that should enable him to pressurise the Fognini serve on occasion.
Furthermore, as has been highlighted on here before, Fognini's break lead loss percentage of 40.5% is horrific for a player around the top 20, and actually this contributes to a combined score of 72.1 - enough to warrant laying the Italian when a break up here.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Fognini when a break up against Mannarino and the match is level in sets (Exit points - full hedge if Mannarino gets the break back, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Fognini when a set and break up against Mannarino. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Mannarino takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Fognini when 2-0 up in sets against Mannarino. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Mannarino takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
Lay Fognini when 2 sets and a break up against Mannarino. (Exit points - Clear liability when the break-back comes, full hedge if Mannarino takes the set, for profit, or the end of the match, for a loss)
In the WTA matches today, there has been some discussion in the Chat Room about the match between Roberta Vinci and Shuai Peng, with the consensus being that the Chinese player is too short here at around 1.52. Even though I didn't feel there were many angles here I want to assess it.
Vinci hasn't had her best year but both ladies are capable of widely varying levels. Projected holds are a shade above ATP mean with Peng edging matters there, so that limits our trades, with Vinci's being almost bang on average. Break back combined scores are well below average, so laying players a break up in this match isn't recommended at all.
I was considering a play of laying Peng a set up, but the statistics in the Ultimate Pre-Match Betting Spreadsheet indicate Vinci doesn't take at least a set enough in matches, so that's looking like a no-go as well.
Sometimes you get these matches where you think a player is too short but you can't work out a way to oppose them, apart from a pre-match bet, and this is one of those situations.
Recommended Trades:-
None.
The final match I want to analyse is the clash between Maria Sharapova and Sabine Lisicki.
Sharapova starts the match at 1.24 and that's very short in my opinion. It's probably just small enough for me to be interested in a pre-match lay to back, and that's definitely an option here.
The stats indicate that Sharapova isn't near her previous best (see below), and dropping the first set to Alexandra Dulgheru in the 2nd round was very worrying for her backers. In that we saw yet again how much the market favours Sharapova in these spots, expecting her to turn the match around, which is only partially the case.
She actually doesn't turn around break deficits as much as her illustrious peers, but she's excellent at recovering from set deficits. For a trader, these are two very different things, and these separate entities need to be treated as such...
The following table illustrates how her hard court stats have significantly dropped off in 2014:-
2012 2013 2014
Hold % Break % Combined % Hold % Break % Combined % Hold % Break % Combined %
73.2 49.5 122.7 78.3 51.1 129.4 66.4 43.5 109.9
There is a clear decline from the last two years and Lisicki's hold/break stats aren't broadly dissimilar today - 68.3% holds and 38.5% breaks - just 3.1% combined percentage below Sharapova's.
Lisicki also took the first set three times in their last four clashes and everything points to a lay to back on the Russian here.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Sharapova pre-match (Exit points, clear liability if she goes a break down, full hedge at the end of the first set for profit, full hedge at the end of the first set for a loss if Sharapova wins the set).
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
1st SEPTEMBER 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS
We are into the second week of the US Open and we have four round of 16 ATP matches, and the same in the WTA, as the players vie for a quarter final place.
There's isn't a huge amount worth recommending today based on the stats of the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet, and in these situations it's absolutely fine not to get involved with certain matches where the match appears well priced by the market and the stats are around average in all areas. It's also very possible that opportunities may crop up in-play using stats, and in that case, the Chat Room is an excellent place to be.
Alexsandra Krunic's run has been superb and I highlighted her as a player with potential in my 100-200 ranked WTA players article last month, as she boasted excellent stats in qualifiers.
However, despite beating Petra Kvitova on Saturday, Victoria Azarenka should be a step too far for the bright prospect and the market makes the Belarussian a 1.16 favourite.
This looks to be justified and with Azarenka being a player with a much better return game - she's broken 47.3% in the last 12 months on hard court - than serve, I'm expecting the Krunic serve to be tested today.
I don't have in-play stats on Krunic but using expectation ratios she would have a combined score of 114.1 which is a little higher than Kaia Kanepi today against Serena Williams, and much higher than the 90.4 WTA top 100 mean.
Laying Krunic when a break up seems a viable proposition. I'm not a huge fan of doing so at odds against but I will if I can get towards evens here at least.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Krunic when a break up against Azarenka in the 1st and 3rd sets as long as the price is under 2.70 (Exit point when she is broken back, for profit, or wins the set, for a loss - equal hedge)
Lay Krunic when a set and break up against Azarenka (Exit point when she is broken back, for profit, or wins the set, for a loss - equal hedge)
The other match I want to highlight is the clash between Ekaterina Makarova and Eugenie Bouchard with the market pricing these at around evens apiece.
I think that's a touch of value on the much-vaunted Canadian with projected holds being exactly the same (around WTA mean) but Bouchard with the better break point 'clutch' score.
Also, Bouchard shows excellent stats on winning at least one set in a match and going down this road should give us a decent position to trade from if Makarova takes the first set.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Makarova when she takes the first set against Bouchard (Clear liability if Bouchard breaks to lead the second set, full hedge if Bouchard wins the second set)
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk