Trading Golf : US Masters 2017

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Euler
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Fri Apr 07, 2017 8:01 pm

Serge on a surge today!

RentonT
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue May 19, 2015 12:26 am

Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:18 pm

Really enjoying it this year although don't want it to become too easy over the weekend now.

Crowd cheering Phil on will be special if he's contending.

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Euler
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Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:45 am

Positive movers to the cut: -

Rickie Fowler - 23 to 4.9 : £36.94
Justin Rose - 27 to 14.5 : £8.62
Jon Rahm - 30 to 16 : £8.75
Phil Mickelson - 34 to 28 : £2.14
Adam Scott - 42 to 26 : £6.15
Sergio Garcia - 50 to 7.4 : £57.57
Thomas Pieters - 110 to 10 : £100.00
Matt Kuchar - 140 to 110 : £2.73
Charley Hoffman - 170 to 17 : £90.00
Soren Kjeldsen - 180 to 170 : £0.59
Ryan Moore - 170 to 40 : £32.50
William McGirt - 580 to 50 : £106.00
Fred Couples - 670 to 120 : £45.83

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Euler
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Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:46 am

Top 20

Jordan Spieth - 8.8 to 9.4 : -£0.64
Rory McIlroy - 8.6 to 14 : -£3.86
Dustin Johnson - 10 to 1000 : -£9.90
Jason Day - 20 to 420 : -£9.52
Rickie Fowler - 23 to 4.9 : £36.94
Hideki Matsuyama - 24 to 50 : -£5.20
Justin Rose - 27 to 14.5 : £8.62
Jon Rahm - 30 to 16 : £8.75
Phil Mickelson - 34 to 28 : £2.14
Henrik Stenson - 36 to 1000 : -£9.64
Adam Scott - 42 to 26 : £6.15
Justin Thomas - 46 to 1000 : -£9.54
Sergio Garcia - 50 to 7.4 : £57.57
Paul Casey - 50 to 200 : -£7.50
Louis Oosthuizen - 48 to 470 : -£8.98
Bubba Watson - 60 to 1000 : -£9.40
Marc Leishman - 55 to 260 : -£7.88
Brandt Snedeker - 60 to 1000 : -£9.40
Tyrrell Hatton - 75 to 1000 : -£9.25
Daniel Berger - 85 to 1000 : -£9.15
Lee Westwood - 95 to 270 : -£6.48

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Dallas
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Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:48 pm

Could nt get into it this evening, feels like their was a number of oppertunites I let slip by.

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ShaunWhite
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Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:11 am

Euler wrote:
Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:46 am
Top 20

Jordan Spieth - 8.8 to 9.4 : -£0.64
Rory McIlroy - 8.6 to 14 : -£3.86
Dustin Johnson - 10 to 1000 : -£9.90
Jason Day - 20 to 420 : -£9.52
Rickie Fowler - 23 to 4.9 : £36.94
Hideki Matsuyama - 24 to 50 : -£5.20
Justin Rose - 27 to 14.5 : £8.62
Jon Rahm - 30 to 16 : £8.75
Phil Mickelson - 34 to 28 : £2.14
Henrik Stenson - 36 to 1000 : -£9.64
Adam Scott - 42 to 26 : £6.15
Justin Thomas - 46 to 1000 : -£9.54
Sergio Garcia - 50 to 7.4 : £57.57
Paul Casey - 50 to 200 : -£7.50
Louis Oosthuizen - 48 to 470 : -£8.98
Bubba Watson - 60 to 1000 : -£9.40
Marc Leishman - 55 to 260 : -£7.88
Brandt Snedeker - 60 to 1000 : -£9.40
Tyrrell Hatton - 75 to 1000 : -£9.25
Daniel Berger - 85 to 1000 : -£9.15
Lee Westwood - 95 to 270 : -£6.48
All those individual figures show a small profit of £3.83, but when taken as a whole the Top20 moved out from 78.61% (1.27) to 76.67% (1.3)
It's like a mathmatical optical illusion, counter-intuitive but true.

weemac
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Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:03 am

The above results are measured as Back to Lay, so the profit of £3.83 disappears when you rectify the mis-calculation of the players whose odds went to 1000. The loss is £10 in each case, since those odds are not available to lay, and if back odds are being used to calculate all bets (both backs and lays), then the above slides into loss because you can't assume you'd be able to lay your original backs at the current back odds.

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Euler
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Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:47 am

It was just an FYI, nothing more than that. The numbers put some context into, but not necessarily the correct one depending on what you are doing.

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gstar1975
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Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:54 pm

Lay Garcia 2.20 on 4th whole thru to 8th? Back Hoffman after hole 8?

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Euler
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Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:14 pm

I think the interaction between Rose and Garcia could produce a special finish, hope so.

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