Trading Golf : Valero Texas Open - Dobbing

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northbound
Posts: 442
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:52 pm

Today is the last round of the Valero Texas Open and the top of the leaderboard is quite tight, with 20 players separated by only 4 shots.

So, just for fun, I'm going to attempt dobbing on five different players, hoping that at least three come in. The leader is at -8 and I chose five players who are at -4. Tiny stakes, £2 per player.

PLAYER (BACK ODDS)
Aaron Baddeley (40.00)
Nick Taylor (70.00)
Jim Herman (90.00)
Camilo Villegas (110.00)
Bob Estes (180.00)

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northbound
Posts: 442
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:29 pm

UPDATE - AFTER 9 HOLES

2 of my 5 players dobbed early on, leaving me with a potential total loss of £2 (instead of £10 if no-one dobbed). After completing half of their rounds, the other 3 players don't look likely to dob.

But somehow I managed to exit the market without a loss, that's because I cheated: layed at slightly lower than 50%, for example I backed Villegas at 110.00 but layed him at 50.00 instead of 55.00.

That left me with a bigger potential profit on him rather than just £2. Now that Villegas is only one shot off the leader, his price went further down to 9.00, which gave me the opportunity of using that extra potential profit to cancel my £2 loss on all other players, thus exiting the market without a loss.

If one of those 3 non-dobbers goes on a birdie-streak in the last 9 holes, I'll actually make a profit.

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northbound
Posts: 442
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Here come the screenshots.
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northbound
Posts: 442
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:31 pm

After the second Villegas lay.
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