Trading Golf : US PGA Championship 2017

Wildly
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:31 am

Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:44 am

Euler wrote:
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:25 pm
2017-08-10_12-02-01 - Paul Casey - Manipulation.png

On each Major this year there has been somebody sat on at least one player priced at 50, this time it was Paul Casey.
That's just trading the transition point in the odds. Laying at 50 gives upside of 10% for each tick of drift and downside of 2% for each tick firmed.
Pre-off in golf majors would be among the few sporting events with with stable enough markets at that price.
Need deep pockets to use that strategy.

weemac
Posts: 346
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:13 am

Wildly wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:44 am

That's just trading the transition point in the odds. Laying at 50 gives upside of 10% for each tick of drift and downside of 2% for each tick firmed.
Only if you can actually get out at 48, which clearly has not happened here, and would be impossible to assume you ever would at such large stakes. And why all on one player?

27 £231 £6,793
28 £586 £4,743
29 £2,414
30 £1,499
32 £884
34 £274
36 £136
38 £35
40 £22
42 £246
44 £111
46 £399
48 £4,055
50 £38,366

Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:20 am

steven1976 wrote:
Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:39 pm
What time does coverage in UK for PGA on sky start?
I couldn't find it on Sky yesterday. I think its only on BBC2 (the red button).

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Euler
Posts: 16477
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
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Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:22 am

Day one positive movers

Hideki Matsuyama - 13.5 to 11 : £2.27
Dustin Johnson - 15.5 to 12.5 : £2.40
Rickie Fowler - 17 to 8.8 : £9.32
Brooks Koepka - 26 to 8.8 : £19.55
Jon Rahm - 29 to 20 : £4.50
Jason Day - 36 to 30 : £2.00
Paul Casey - 50 to 27 : £8.52
Matt Kuchar - 100 to 90 : £1.11
Tony Finau - 85 to 34 : £15.00
Tommy Fleetwood - 110 to 55 : £10.00
Kevin Kisner - 130 to 21 : £51.90
Patrick Reed - 150 to 44 : £24.09
Gary Woodland   - 150 to 34 : £34.12
Louis Oosthuizen - 200 to 70 : £18.57
Brian Harman - 270 to 80 : £23.75
Ryan Moore - 290 to 190 : £5.26
Byeong Hun An - 390 to 270 : £4.44
Thorbjorn Olesen - 350 to 38 : £82.11
Sean O'Hair - 380 to 270 : £4.07
Bud Cauley - 460 to 110 : £31.82
Sung Kang - 550 to 220 : £15.00
Pat Perez - 530 to 180 : £19.44
Grayson Murray - 570 to 90 : £53.33
Jordan Smith - 560 to 210 : £16.67
Graham Delaet - 660 to 200 : £23.00
Jim Herman - 990 to 250 : £29.60
D.A. Points - 1000 to 180 : £45.56
Hideto Tanihara - 1000 to 660 : £5.15
Satoshi Kodaira - 1000 to 810 : £2.35
Chris Stroud - 1000 to 170 : £48.82

redbasil
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:50 pm

Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:09 am

Thanks for the update peter... if it's an answerable question do you Dutch or flat back your selections?
Also an answer to an earlier question the coverage is also on BBC iplayer, great to hear eccentric alliss again.

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northbound
Posts: 579
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:13 am

This is a course with very long holes that should suit powerful players, so I've done a little analysis.

Here are PGA Driving Distance stats:
http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.101.html

Here are the Top 20 players in driving distance who are playing this week. With the exception of Bubba Watson, ALL of them traded lower at some point during Round 1 (some starting odds have been estimated by looking at charts).


DRIVING DISTANCE RANK ... PLAYER ... STARTING ODDS (INPLAY MIN)

1 ... Dustin Johnson ... 15.50 (10)
3 ... Luke List ... 500 (320)
T6 ... Tony Finau ... 85 (25)
T6 ... Brooks Koepka ... 26 (7.20)
T9 ... Justin Thomas ... 46 (30)
11 ... Bubba Watson ... 150 (150)
12 ... Grayson Murray ... 570 (60)
13 ... Patrick Rodgers ... 350 (260)
14 ... Gary Woodland ... 150 (21)
15 ... J.B. Holmes ... 140 (100)
16 ... Jon Rahm ... 29 (10.50)
T17 ... Xander Schauffele ... 130 (75)
T17 ... Hudson Swafford ... 400 (250)
19 ... Adam Scott ... 55 (24)
20 ... Jason Kokrak ... 700 (420)

Wildly
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:31 am

Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:20 am

weemac wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:13 am
Wildly wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:44 am

That's just trading the transition point in the odds. Laying at 50 gives upside of 10% for each tick of drift and downside of 2% for each tick firmed.
Only if you can actually get out at 48, which clearly has not happened here, and would be impossible to assume you ever would at such large stakes. And why all on one player?

27 £231 £6,793
28 £586 £4,743
29 £2,414
30 £1,499
32 £884
34 £274
36 £136
38 £35
40 £22
42 £246
44 £111
46 £399
48 £4,055
50 £38,366
Expect the trader closed pre-off. Nothing like the entire £38,366 would have needed to exit at price 48. The strategy would have been to scalp by laying at 50 then backing at 55 and in increments of say £1,000.
Euler's screenshot shows £4,430 total being offered to lay at 50.
Amount traded at 55 is £20,400 (approximately, I'm converting that from AUD)

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Euler
Posts: 16477
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
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Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:45 am

Positive movers to the cut: -

Hideki Matsuyama - 13.5 to 2.84 : £37.54
Rickie Fowler - 17 to 14.5 : £1.72
Jason Day - 36 to 5.6 : £54.29
Justin Thomas - 44 to 24 : £8.33
Paul Casey - 50 to 28 : £7.86
Kevin Kisner - 130 to 7.8 : £156.67
Louis Oosthuizen - 200 to 16.5 : £111.21
Francesco Molinari - 220 to 29 : £65.86
James Hahn - 230 to 210 : £0.95
Byeong Hun An - 390 to 150 : £16.00
Grayson Murray - 570 to 540 : £0.56
Ryan Fox - 520 to 420 : £2.38
D.A. Points - 1000 to 720 : £3.89
Scott Brown - 1000 to 850 : £1.76
Chris Stroud - 1000 to 55 : £171.82

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northbound
Posts: 579
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:17 am

Thanks PW.

I'm tempted to lay Matsuyama at that price, with a view to backing him at 5.00 or 6.00.

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megarain
Posts: 912
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
Location: megarainuk.blogspot.com

Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:03 pm

Listening to radio, they said something like 12 of last 14 winners have been placed 1 or 2, after 2 rounds.

Japanese player never won a Major ..

I sort of like backing him at 2.8

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