Trading Golf : Wyndham Championship 2017

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northbound
Posts: 579
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:18 pm

VENUE: Sedgefield CC - Greensboro, North Carolina

This tournament is held every year on the same golf course and it's routinely one of the easiest on Tour with an average winning score of around -17. Power is not crucial: accuracy with iron shots and putting ability are the key skills required to win here.

Hole 18 is the most difficult on the course, being a long Par 4 (507 yards).


TRADING STRATEGY

Being an easy course, it's quite probable that there will be many ups and downs at the top of the leaderboard. So, perhaps a simple strategy would be to lay the first player that trades at 3.00 or below with a view to backing him at 5.00 later on.


RECENT HISTORY

The following players traded well below their SP on Betfair in the past two years at this tournament.

Year, Player, Sp, IpMin

2015, Bill Haas, 30.0, 8.6
2016, Bill Haas, 32.0, 11.0

2015, Lucas Glover, 430.0, 34.0
2016, Lucas Glover, 150.0, 8.8

2015, Jonas Blixt, 120.0, 7.0
2016, Jonas Blixt, 220.0, 70.0

Bear's The Name
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:04 am

Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:49 pm

Cheers for that - useful info for a fellow golf fan.

I've got quite into watching and betting on golf over the past few months. I like the leisurely way the market develops over the course of the four days until we get to the business end on Sunday night, along with all the ebbs and flows along the way.

So much more relaxed than punting a football match or a horse race. Four days of entertainment from one market and (hopefully) some profits too.

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lyricist65
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:46 am

Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:40 pm

good to see some discussion on golf o n regular events rather than just the major weeks.

personally i like to trade the front runners before the off and then in between rounds, building my position over the 4 days.

in-play is much more fun but so volatile! keen to see how others on here do it though.

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northbound
Posts: 579
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:59 pm

Personally I like to lay the leader in-play at around 3.00 and back him at around 5.00, IF there's a long way to go and it's the kind of tournament with plenty of birdies and expected ups/downs at the top of the leaderboard.

Sometimes I do that a few times and the last trade backfires. It happened last weekend, when I laid Justin Thomas at around 2.00 with three holes to go. He was the leader at -8, there were three players at -7, and the difficult last three holes were in front of them. Definite probability of a drift to 2.50 or 3.00

Unfortunately the three chasers faltered and Thomas was very consistent so I couldn't complete the trade...

But it's good fun!

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lyricist65
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:46 am

Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:09 pm

yeah laying the leader can be good, but wouldn't rush to do it on the last 3 holes on Sunday! There are lots of opportunities on Saturday and even Friday with very low odds with so much golf left to play. Usually by the back 9 of round 4 i'm out of there!

you been at it for a while northbound? decent results?

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northbound
Posts: 579
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:38 pm

I've only started recently to explore Betfair golf trading, so am in a learning phase. I'm also building a database of past tournaments using historic Betfair Data, which helps to identify tournaments/courses that suit my lay-to-back strategy.

How's it going for you with regards to pre-round trading? Do you find mostly gentle odds movements or is it common to have violent ones in the 24 hours before a tournament starts?

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lyricist65
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:46 am

Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:20 pm

typically the market settles around Tuesday afternoon. The bulk of the money comes in the day before the tournament starts so you can see prices move enough. Kisner was 19 on Tuesday, and 17 currently. That's plenty of movement. Stenson's price has moved similarly.

You can see much greater movements at higher prices but you don't get much when hedged.

I'm seeing good results and most importantly consistency, which helps to build confidence to trust yourself with larger stakes.

Do you subscribe to tour-tips? very useful stat site and have lots of archive pricing data going back many years.

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northbound
Posts: 579
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:30 pm

Thanks lyricist65, I didn't know that website and will have a look.

Building confidence, I agree with that: it's also my goal at the moment, using tiny stakes and trying out different ideas.

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