Trading Golf : Predictive Model

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megarain
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Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:50 pm

This was pretty good.

http://datagolf.ca/live-predictive-model/

golf predictive model.jpg
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The Griffin
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Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:16 am

Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:08 am

megarain wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:50 pm
This was pretty good.

http://datagolf.ca/live-predictive-model/


golf predictive model.jpg
I am using this site to make some predictions for the Portugal Masters

Having read through the site, their model seems to stack up and give an edge when looking to Back to Lay

Backing players with a >=70% chance of making the cut and a >2% chance of winning. Finding some great value bets based on these predictions such as:-

Ross Fisher - predicted odds of winning 45.45 (implied probability 2.2%) and backed at 95.00 (IP 1.05%).

RF currently predicted at 85% chance of making the cut which should see me being able to lay off much lower.

Of 10 players backed before the first round 9 still have 70% chance or greater of making cut before the second.

Will be interesting to see how this pans out

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Euler
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Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:22 am

I haven't found the predictive model that helpful, the live data updates are great for my style of trading.

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The Griffin
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Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:16 am

Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:46 am

Euler wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:22 am
I haven't found the predictive model that helpful, the live data updates are great for my style of trading.
That plan didn't work out. All 10 picks made the cut but I got too greedy with my expected reductions in prices and didn't lay enough of the selections.

One problem was not being able to sit and watch things pan out (couple of domestic "situations" cropped up). The live data was very good though, as you say, I just missed my opportunities due to not giving it my attention. The live updates from the Tour website with how each hole was playing was good for helping to read the market too (particularly the first 2 days when the field teed off the 1st and 10th simultaneously and the back 9 played harder than the front)

Perhaps BTL Top 10 finishers would be another place to test the data??

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