Trading Golf : US Open 2019

Emmson
Posts: 1422
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:13 pm

Archangel wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:05 pm
So your 8 hours behind ?
Thats an early start for the cricket !
No not me the golfers. Finishes after 3.00am and was 4.00am on friday and I can't just fall asleep as soon as my trading session ends, I need to wind down and Its daylight.

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Euler
Posts: 19449
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
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Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:47 am

Brooks Koepka shot in the 60s all four rounds but finished second. Koepka is the first player in U.S. Open history to shoot in the 60s all four rounds and not win. Dating to last year, he now has five straight rounds in the 60s in the U.S. Open, most of any player in championship history.

jaffas46
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:32 am

Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:30 am

Hi Guys,1st post here so if I have posted in the wrong place please feel free to redirect me! WRT .Euler's link to the Economist EAGLE predictor On Sunday morning EAGLE was predicting a 36% win for Woodland and Rose and only a 9% win for Koepka.The odds on BF at this time were 3 for both Woodland and Rose (reflecting the predictor) Koepka was priced at 6, so I was thinking that the value was in laying Koepka but the risk was 3x what it would have been to dutch Woodland and Rose for the same reward,So my question is would it have been better to take the value (laying Koepka) or to take much less value (dutching Woodland and Rose)

henbet22
Posts: 56
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:21 pm

Hey jaffas. Along with value think also in terms of liability and exits. Laying Koepka at 6 would be a bit risky considering the form he is showing at the moment and before long your lay at 6 is under a lot of pressure. So try to think in terms of value entries that can withstand a bit of heat before you have to cut and run. imo laying Koepka at 6 doesn't give you that because of the liability and his form and these factors offset the value you are getting in his price.....you could back him to get a bit closer to the leaders or maybe lead or win even though on the eagle base percentage you are not getting value...because it's easier to control your liability in that spot.......hope this helps.......

jaffas46
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:32 am

Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:17 pm

Thanks for your reply Henbet. I think I understand the risk/liability part of the trade but exits? Could I not trade out when the price reached a certain level? Do you calculate what it would take for the price to get to that level and is that what you mean by withstand a bit of heat? Thanks again for your reply
Jaffa

henbet22
Posts: 56
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:21 pm

Exits are just where you have planned to get some or all of your money out of the market. So say your plan is to lay a golfer for a few holes and you are looking for a bogey.....your exit would be when he gets a bogey.....or if it went the other way if he gets a birdie..... you can plan your exits on the ladder say 20 ticks or on the game/match mechanics or on red/green... so back player 1 to win the second set in tennis and exit at the end of set either way...… or lay team 1 in the cricket and get out at 40+ ticks right or 20 ticks wrong..... you will find your own style with this over time and there are many ways to trade sports but you need a plan and a reason to enter the market and an exit plan with a reason (both profit and loss)........withstanding heat is really just your margin of safety and holding your nerve under pressure .....within the parameters you have set..... as you noted there was 3x the liability with the Koepka lay than dutching the front two.... potentially lots of heat!!!

jaffas46
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:32 am

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:01 pm

Thanks again for the reply Henbet, I can see that I have lots of work to do (never saw it as a planned exit I just waited until a goal was scored and then decied what to do lol). So I will get studying the charts and come up with a few ideas Cheers Jaffa

henbet22
Posts: 56
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:58 pm

That sounds like a good plan! :)

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