Top trading ranges: -
Rory McIlroy 12.5 to 3.55
Lee Westwood 25 to 5
Phil Mickelson 70 to 9
Bubba Watson 95 to 13.5
Sergio Garcia 500 to 15
Jason Dufner 270 to 15
Louis Oosthuizen 340 to 17
Fred Couples 700 to 26
Matt Kuchar 500 to 22
Nick Watney 110 to 14
Miguel Angel Jimenez 600 to 22
Tiger Woods 70 to 3.85
Paul Lawrie 1000 to 42
Aaron Baddeley 550 to 60
Henrik Stenson 590 to 12.5
Justin Rose 300 to 15.5
Peter Hanson 420 to 18.5
Hunter Mahan 150 to 11
Charles Howell III 600 to 90
Gary Woodland 490 to 44
Ben Crane 550 to 34
US Masters 2012
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I wasn't home in time to Dutch the outsiders but I've made a decent profit with some good moves.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I traded this event quite well. I had profit on most golfers especially Mickelson whom I backed in the 50s and 60s. The only player who could spoil it for me was Louis Oosthuizen so when that Albatross went in and Mickelson made a horlicks of the 3rd I saw my position go pear shaped in double quick time!
I have a good friend who is a Pro in South Africa and he told me Oosthuizen is pushing his irons with a slight block. To compensate he sometimes comes over it a bit and sends the ball long. Why couldn't he have done that instead of that albatross?
Oh well, having played golf to a fairly decent level I know what can happen. I just didn't expect it to happen in a matter of minutes!
JG
I have a good friend who is a Pro in South Africa and he told me Oosthuizen is pushing his irons with a slight block. To compensate he sometimes comes over it a bit and sends the ball long. Why couldn't he have done that instead of that albatross?
Oh well, having played golf to a fairly decent level I know what can happen. I just didn't expect it to happen in a matter of minutes!
JG
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
It's amazing that Oosthuizen isn't really playing that well, he's made some poor chips and iron approach shots but he's putted brilliantly to get himself out of trouble.
The rest of the field are all stuttering and Oosthuizen is benefiting.
The rest of the field are all stuttering and Oosthuizen is benefiting.
Great Competition!
I dont know if this was typical Masters, I think the way to trade this is to lay the field below 2..? The prices was bouncing around like crazy!
Edit: During the last hour i simply scalped this one by laying first on each player and made about an extra 30 quid. It was very easy to do.
On reflection this would have been an event that a simple BOT (Laying the fav) would have worked a treat
Remember seeing that over 26m was traded (maybe more) and if you had started out with a liability of 50 -100 quid and left the BOT running over the full event, I wonder how much could have been made?
Regards
Peter
I dont know if this was typical Masters, I think the way to trade this is to lay the field below 2..? The prices was bouncing around like crazy!
Edit: During the last hour i simply scalped this one by laying first on each player and made about an extra 30 quid. It was very easy to do.
On reflection this would have been an event that a simple BOT (Laying the fav) would have worked a treat
Remember seeing that over 26m was traded (maybe more) and if you had started out with a liability of 50 -100 quid and left the BOT running over the full event, I wonder how much could have been made?
Regards
Peter
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Hi Peter
You generally find the price will only drop to < 2.0 in the final round and at the Masters it generally occurs from hole 13-14 dependant on how much of a lead there is for the top golfer. You get occasions where players start at <2.0 , Dustin Johnson in the US Open was one and he imploded after virtually one hole.
As the closing holes draw closer, the prices of the front two contract as other players are discounted. If one hits a bad shot the prices can go mental as I am sure you witnessed last night.
What really caught me out was the albatross by Oosthuizen and the triple bogey 6 by Mickelson! I ended up seeing a good position turn sour very quickly. When you consider that is only the fourth Albatross in Masters' history it shows how unlucky I was. I also watched Oosthuizen closely and his approach play was not that great. His putting was amazing and that saved his position but if you removed the freak Albatross and gave him a birdie or an eagle, the market would have been so much more different as he was only -3 on the day from that one shot! That's not sour grapes because it ruined my trade, I know he did such a job with the putter and I admire his tenacity. To me he surely couldn't keep scrambling like that but he did it again and again. Then finally he played a poor approach at the play off hole, another poor chip and the rest was as they say is history.
I traded out for a loss because I couldn't hold my position any longer. If I had waited for the play off I am sure my heart would've given out!
JG
You generally find the price will only drop to < 2.0 in the final round and at the Masters it generally occurs from hole 13-14 dependant on how much of a lead there is for the top golfer. You get occasions where players start at <2.0 , Dustin Johnson in the US Open was one and he imploded after virtually one hole.
As the closing holes draw closer, the prices of the front two contract as other players are discounted. If one hits a bad shot the prices can go mental as I am sure you witnessed last night.
What really caught me out was the albatross by Oosthuizen and the triple bogey 6 by Mickelson! I ended up seeing a good position turn sour very quickly. When you consider that is only the fourth Albatross in Masters' history it shows how unlucky I was. I also watched Oosthuizen closely and his approach play was not that great. His putting was amazing and that saved his position but if you removed the freak Albatross and gave him a birdie or an eagle, the market would have been so much more different as he was only -3 on the day from that one shot! That's not sour grapes because it ruined my trade, I know he did such a job with the putter and I admire his tenacity. To me he surely couldn't keep scrambling like that but he did it again and again. Then finally he played a poor approach at the play off hole, another poor chip and the rest was as they say is history.
I traded out for a loss because I couldn't hold my position any longer. If I had waited for the play off I am sure my heart would've given out!
JG
Hi JG
To be honest I was engrossed in the match and kind of trading on auto pilot, really enjoyable to watch..
re my earlier comment on trading this with a BOT, I was thinking which other markets would potentially have big swings too and would suit a similar approach (laying the leader)...I was thinking the marathon in the Olympics? (especially if you add the possible 'demonstrator' intervention into the equation?? some idiot will try and disrupt that?)
The downside to trading these type of events is that we can only have 20 data reqs/second and do I want to invest those 20 in those markets rather than the racing??
Oh - Whilst I think on; Dutching the field pre event was good too..for anyone new out there..when you dutch large fields, do it manually as there will be many individuals already trading at 1000 and if you attempt to place a bet on for less than 2 pounds as part of your dutch bet it will automatically get matched at 1000 so not ideal.. (Snooker fairly good for this too - tournament collapse)..
To be honest I was engrossed in the match and kind of trading on auto pilot, really enjoyable to watch..
re my earlier comment on trading this with a BOT, I was thinking which other markets would potentially have big swings too and would suit a similar approach (laying the leader)...I was thinking the marathon in the Olympics? (especially if you add the possible 'demonstrator' intervention into the equation?? some idiot will try and disrupt that?)
The downside to trading these type of events is that we can only have 20 data reqs/second and do I want to invest those 20 in those markets rather than the racing??
Oh - Whilst I think on; Dutching the field pre event was good too..for anyone new out there..when you dutch large fields, do it manually as there will be many individuals already trading at 1000 and if you attempt to place a bet on for less than 2 pounds as part of your dutch bet it will automatically get matched at 1000 so not ideal.. (Snooker fairly good for this too - tournament collapse)..
I mentioned above about the possible demonstrator intervention..well just read in the paper they are highlighting possible events that could be subjected to this:-PeterLe wrote: re my earlier comment on trading this with a BOT, I was thinking which other markets would potentially have big swings too and would suit a similar approach (laying the leader)...I was thinking the marathon in the Olympics? (especially if you add the possible 'demonstrator' intervention into the equation?? some idiot will try and disrupt that?)
The downside to trading these type of events is that we can only have 20 data reqs/second and do I want to invest those 20 in those markets rather than the racing??
..
Cycling Road Race (Difficult to secure 150 mile event)
Marathons
Race Walking (less than above)
Open Water Swimming (Both in Hyde Park)..the entire south bank is open to the public - with no tickets..
Not sure whether Betfair would void an interrupted market, but worth a thought..(as I'm sure it will be on the contestants minds too)..