Open Golf 2013

[Euler]

Fair weather greets us for the Open this year, that's unusual! But this may make the course a little less random this year.

Therefore, from a trading perspective, I'm less inclined to find a big priced winner this year. Links golf on a difficult course can be notoriously difficult but when the weather is sweet and the wind calm, skill comes more to the forefront.

Winning a major requires a bit of luck however and also requires a very different approach to a standard tournament. So I've been looking closely at some candidates. Because the Open shifts venues and the set up vary over time it's difficult to read anything into each tournament but the Open is always played on a links course and that gives us some clues.

If you look at the top ten finishes in the Open it hints at players how can play links golf and put themselves in contention at the open. I've looked at players how have competed in four or more championships and their top 10 percentage.

Top ten finishers

Ernie Els is the master as he has competed in 16 tournaments and finished in the top ten on 10 occasions, of course he won it last year. But the two years prior he was cut. Then comes Tiger with 8/14 or 57% of tournaments ending in a top ten finish.

Dustin Johnson appears at #3 on the basis on 2/4, so that may not be representative. But we then see a list of possible contenders. Sergio Garcia 46%, Thomas Bjorn 35%, Jim Furyk 31% then the fading Darren Clarke and Padraig Harrington. Though you may want to discount them on the lack of form. Lee Westwood makes an appearance with 25% of Open tournaments ending in the top ten.

Others of note: -

Ian Poulter 16%
Louis Oosthizen 16%
Luke Donald 16%
Adam Scott 15%
Angel Cabrera 14%
Phil Mickleson 13%

Of course you have plenty others with low appearances and good finishes but it's difficult to read much into that, but McIlroy shows only one top ten in five, as does Martin Kaymer. Paul Lawries' only top ten was when he won it in that famous Van De Velde battle.

If you look at the average finish position of a player over the last ten years, excluding appearances under 4, it reads; Woods, Els, D.Johnson, Garcia, McIlory, Watney.

US Open champion / hero of English golf, Justin Rose, has only finished in the top ten once, we all remember that, and has an average finish of just 54.

Current Form

So let's forget the historics and look at current form at the majors. Rose tops the list and would do so by a massive margin if he wasn't cut from the Open last year. But his form line shows Win, T25, T3 so that's strong. Ernie Els isn't far behind at all with T4, T13, T48, Win. Lee Westwood is ranked 20th in current form in the majors.

The next ten read Scott, Day, Woods, Dufner, Donald, Stricker, Snedeker, Mickleson, Poulter, McIlroy, Mahan.

Despite liking Manassero and tipping him for a major in a previous post, he hasn't performed well in the big four and has been cut at the last three. Obviously on the rise and plenty of years ahead of him.

How it will play

With such good weather recently the ground is likely to be bone dry and it's likely a lot of players may not hit a wood once. During practice several players ended up very long on a lot of shots. So it will be all out the iron play and shaping of shots.

With a bit of luck we should see some good golf this week. You would imagine the scores and cut being lower than average depending on the exact set up.

I imagine from a trading perspective there will be less opportunities than in previous years, but some of that depends on the early scoring.

[BJGardner]

Ive put £2 on Faldo

[Euler]

Good start for Jimenez, would be great to see a 49 year old, beer bellied, cigar smoker win the Open.

[BJGardner]

Darren Clarke cigar.jpg

Darren Clarke did it a couple of years ago, not quite 49 though.


I think the price of pork bellies will keep falling

[tweebie1999]

Someone who has done well in the last few majors is Jason Day. last evening his price was 40. How about a second Australian winner in a row?

[Euler]

McIlroy could miss the cut here.

[Euler]

Woods off to a shocker, lovely!

[Euler]

@IanJamesPoulter - Unfortunately the guys this afternoon will struggle with a few pin positions. 8th hole is a joke, 18th needs a windmill & clown face.

[Euler]

Louis Oosthuizen retires before finishing the first round due to an injury.

[BJGardner]

@IanJamesPoulter - Unfortunately the guys this afternoon will struggle with a few pin positions. 8th hole is a joke, 18th needs a windmill & clown face.

Peter Allis just called the players who whine about the conditions cry babies Quite right, this is the biggest tournament in the world its meant to be difficult!

PS Shiv Kapur doesnt appear to be struggling so far now playing the 8th

[Euler]

Schwartzel well a truly put paid to his club there! That's how I feel when I play golf sometimes.

[Euler]

The good, the bad and the lucky http://bbc.in/1btdxHE

[Euler]

Positive movers after day one

Zach Johnson - 120 to 12 - £90
Rafael Cabrera Bello - 520 to 55 - £84.55
Tom Lehman - 1000 to 140 - £61.43
Mark OMeara - 1000 to 170 - £48.82
Shiv Kapur - 1000 to 170 - £48.82
Miguel Angel Jimenez - 240 to 46 - £42.17
Francesco Molinari - 180 to 38 - £37.37
Angel Cabrera - 140 to 34 - £31.18
Dustin Johnson - 75 to 21 - £25.71
Jordan Spieth - 150 to 44 - £24.09
Brandt Snedeker - 48 to 15 - £22
Martin Laird - 130 to 50 - £16
Ken Duke - 750 to 290 - £15.86
Todd Hamilton - 1000 to 400 - £15
Bubba Watson - 120 to 50 - £14
Eduardo De La Riva - 1000 to 450 - £12.22
Oliver Fisher - 1000 to 460 - £11.74
Henrik Stenson - 44 to 21 - £10.95
Tiger Woods - 10.5 to 5.3 - £9.81
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - 160 to 85 - £8.82
Darren Clarke - 810 to 470 - £7.23
Phil Mickelson - 17.5 to 10.5 - £6.67
Thomas Aiken - 300 to 200 - £5
Michael Thompson - 570 to 420 - £3.57
Adam Scott - 26 to 20 - £3
Hideki Matsuyama - 260 to 200 - £3
Ryan Moore - 230 to 190 - £2.11
Johnson Wagner - 850 to 730 - £1.64
Bernd Wiesberger - 170 to 150 - £1.33
Camilo Villegas - 350 to 320 - £0.94
Hunter Mahan - 120 to 110 - £0.91
Marcus Fraser - 870 to 830 - £0.48
Fredrik Jacobson - 230 to 220 - £0.45
Josh Teater - 840 to 830 - £0.12

[Euler]

Negatives: -

Lee Westwood - 32 to 34 - £-0.59
Jason Day - 36 to 85 - £-5.76
Graeme McDowell - 24 to 95 - £-7.47
Ian Poulter - 65 to 95 - £-3.16
Martin Kaymer - 70 to 110 - £-3.64
Ernie Els - 30 to 200 - £-8.5
Sergio Garcia - 32 to 150 - £-7.87
Branden Grace - 75 to 140 - £-4.64
Justin Rose - 23 to 170 - £-8.65
Webb Simpson - 90 to 150 - £-4
Jason Dufner - 100 to 130 - £-2.31
Padraig Harrington - 120 to 160 - £-2.5
Matt Kuchar - 50 to 120 - £-5.83
Charl Schwartzel - 38 to 190 - £-8
Thomas Bjorn - 90 to 240 - £-6.25
Mikko Ilonen - 150 to 210 - £-2.86
Stewart Cink - 290 to 380 - £-2.37
Matteo Manassero - 75 to 370 - £-7.97
Marcel Siem - 170 to 490 - £-6.53
Jonas Blixt - 300 to 340 - £-1.18
Jamie Donaldson - 160 to 470 - £-6.6
Nicolas Colsaerts - 60 to 470 - £-8.72
Jimmy Walker - 360 to 480 - £-2.5
Harris English - 260 to 560 - £-5.36
Rickie Fowler - 75 to 760 - £-9.01
Gregory Bourdy - 380 to 610 - £-3.77
Gareth Maybin - 410 to 670 - £-3.88
Billy Horschel - 120 to 500 - £-7.6
Rory McIlroy - 27 to 860 - £-9.69
Marc Warren - 380 to 530 - £-2.83
Danny Willett - 450 to 870 - £-4.83
Geoff Ogilvy - 380 to 800 - £-5.25
Brett Rumford - 430 to 1000 - £-5.7
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - 590 to 750 - £-2.13
Scott Piercy - 510 to 1000 - £-4.9
Shane Lowry - 180 to 700 - £-7.43
Nick Watney - 270 to 1000 - £-7.3
Luke Donald - 40 to 1000 - £-9.6
Jim Furyk - 130 to 1000 - £-8.7
Paul Lawrie - 220 to 1000 - £-7.8
Ben Curtis - 470 to 1000 - £-5.3
George Coetzee - 240 to 1000 - £-7.6
Keegan Bradley - 160 to 1000 - £-8.4
Thorbjorn Olesen - 170 to 1000 - £-8.3
Alexander Noren - 190 to 1000 - £-8.1
Bill Haas - 95 to 1000 - £-9.05
Bo Van Pelt - 290 to 1000 - £-7.1
K J Choi - 180 to 1000 - £-8.2
Richard Sterne - 140 to 1000 - £-8.6
Robert Karlsson - 540 to 1000 - £-4.6
Carl Pettersson - 410 to 1000 - £-5.9
Vijay Singh - 310 to 1000 - £-6.9
Tom Watson - 780 to 1000 - £-2.2
Justin Leonard - 570 to 1000 - £-4.3
Chris Wood - 190 to 1000 - £-8.1
Lucas Glover - 540 to 1000 - £-4.6
Thongchai Jaidee - 350 to 1000 - £-6.5
David Lynn - 280 to 1000 - £-7.2
Richie Ramsay - 670 to 1000 - £-3.3
Robert Garrigus - 610 to 1000 - £-3.9
John Huh - 500 to 1000 - £-5
Bud Cauley - 910 to 1000 - £-0.9
Brian Davis - 500 to 1000 - £-5
Luke Guthrie - 870 to 1000 - £-1.3
John Senden - 240 to 1000 - £-7.6
Fred Couples - 410 to 1000 - £-5.9
D.A. Points - 740 to 1000 - £-2.6
Kevin Streelman - 340 to 1000 - £-6.6
Y.E. Yang - 780 to 1000 - £-2.2
Brooks Koepka - 210 to 1000 - £-7.9
Alvaro Quiros - 450 to 1000 - £-5.5
Scott Jamieson - 890 to 1000 - £-1.1
Stephen Gallacher - 280 to 1000 - £-7.2
Boo Weekley - 320 to 750 - £-5.73
Graham Delaet - 240 to 1000 - £-7.6
Kyle Stanley - 450 to 1000 - £-5.5
Marc Leishman - 260 to 1000 - £-7.4
Russell Henley - 410 to 1000 - £-5.9
Scott Stallings - 480 to 1000 - £-5.2
Peter Hanson - 210 to 1000 - £-7.9
Louis Oosthuizen - 65 to 1000 - £-9.35

[steven1976]

Just seen today's pins and they look tough pins. All look close to the edge of the greens.