Ryder Cup 2014

[BJGardner]

Have been thinking about what to do on the Ryder Cup this morning.

My initial thoughts are that Europe will win fairly easily, perhaps after a traditional slow start.

I know there are some Golf experts on the forum, will you be trading this?

Is trading the tie a good strategy?

Do you expect the fun and games like Medinah?

Is the "Rory GMac" thing media hype or a real problem?

Thanks in advance.

[megarain]

Hi,

I am being bombarded with 'info' re this event, but, just want to watch, and not have a bet.

My main guy :

See no weakness in Europe team

Unlike other years when 2-3 Euro players were weak.



2006 = Harrington (past his best)

2008 = Harrington, Hanson and Wilson but a bad all round performance

2010 = Molinari Brothers and Hanson

2012 = Molinari F, Hanson and Colsaerts.

2014 = Much stronger looking side.



All the Capt Picks, Westwood, Gallagher and Poulter have strong credentials.



World Rankings are Stroke play based and rather like Test Cricket

Match play is not at all like Test Cricket. Much more like ODI or T20.

Its about taking risks and getting birdies.

That’s how I see it.



Pairings are important. Certain players play better together.

That’s where McGinley comes in. He knows the Euro players better than Watson does the USA guys.

Part of the reason for McGinley is that he is still on the main tour. Watson plays the senior tour.



The USA look / are strong. They always do. But at stroke play.

But there will be wind and quite likely some rain.



I make it close but Europe by 1-2 points.

Should get 5/1 odds on that forecast.

[megarain]

I tried to attach to above .. didnt work.

(doesnt like docs)

Here is the data .. if u can read it .. sorry for bad formatting, havent time now to find a solution.

2006/2008 performances

2006 K-Club - Woosnam Europe won 16.5 v 11.5

Clarke -5 18 -5 16 -2 16 3 3 Clarke - Great week

Westy -2 18 -1 18 -2 18 5 4 Westy - Great week

Monty -4 18 -2 18 4 2 Monty - Good partners

Harry Par 18 -4 17 -1 16 -2 15 5 0.5 Harry - Played well for nothing

McGinley Par 18 3 1 McGinley - Poor

Stenson -3 18 -4 17 -3 15 3 1.5 Stenson - Good week

Howell -4 14 -5 14 3 2.5 Howell - Great week

Casey -6 18 -4 18 -7 17 4 3 Casey - Great week

Karlson -2 16 3 1 Karlson - Fair

Donald -2 18 -3 17 -2 17 3 3 Donald - Good partners

Garcia -8 16 -6 16 -2 15 5 4 Garcia - Great week

Olazabal -3 18 3 3 Oly - Great week

2008 Valhalla – Faldo USA won 16.5 v 11.5

Westy, Garcia, Jimenez, Casey, Hanson & Harry all failed to win 1 game. 0-12-9

4 Ball 4 Some 4 Ball 4 Some Singles Games Pts

4 Some 4 Ball 4 Some 4 Ball Singles Games Pts

Rose 0 18 -1 16 -3 15 -6 16 4 3 Exc

Poulter 0 18 -6 16 -3 15 -6 18 -5 16 5 4 Exc

McDowell -4 18 -2 18 -3 18 -5 17 4 2.5 4 rounds under par

Jimenez -2 15 -2 18 0 17 3 0.5

Garcia 0 18 -4 15 -4 18 3 14 4 1

Westy 0 18 -6 18 -2 17 -5 17 4 1

Hanson -3 18 0 17 0 17 3 0.5

Wilson -1 17 -4 16 2 1

Casey 4 16 -2 18 -2 18 3 1

Stenson 4 16 -1 17 -2 18 -3 16 4 1.5

Harry -1 18 -4 18 0 17 5 17 4 0.5

Karlson -1 18 0 17 -7 18 -3 15 4 2 3 rounds under par


///

2010 and 2012 performances

2010 Celtic Manor – Monty Europe won 14.5 v 13.5

McDowell -2 18 -2 18 -3 17 -3 17 4 2.5 31 Great Singles

Mcilroy -2 18 4 2 21 Rookie

Fisher -3 18 -1 16 -9 17 2+ 16 4 2 29 Rookie

Poulter -3 17 -4 17 -6 14 4 3 34 & 3rd RC Great

Donald -4 16 -5 13 -4 18 4 3 32 & 3rd RC = Pk

Harrington -1 16 -9 17 1+ 16 4 2 39 & 6th RC = Pk

Westwood -4 16 -2 18 -5 13 -2 17 4 2.5 37 & 7th RC

Kaymer -4 17 2+ 14 4 2.5 25 Rookie

Jimenez 0 15 -7 18 -3 15 3 2 46 & 4th RC Good

Hanson 2+ 16 3 1 32 Rookie

MolinariF 2+ 18 -6 18 -5 15 3 0.5 27 Rookie

MolinariE -2 18 3 1 29 Rookie = Pk

2012 Medinah – Olazabal Europe won 14.5 v 13.5

4 Ball 4 Some 4 Some 4 Ball Singles Games Pts

E = Incredible fight back. US = Badly let down by senior players.

4 Some 4 Ball 4 Some 4 Ball Singles Games Pts W-L-D

Previou

s Age Cups

McDowell -2 18 -6 17 -1 18 2 17 4 1 4-2-2 33 3rd RC

McIlroy -8 18 -5 17 5 3 1-1-2 23 2nd RC

Poulter -1 17 -1 17 -2 18 4 4 8-3-0 36 4th Rc CP

Rose -4 16 -4 14 -6 18 5 3 3-1-0 32 2nd RC

Kaymer 0 18 2 1 2-1-1 27 2nd RC

Garcia 0 15 1 17 -8 18 -2 18 4 2 14-6-4 32 4th RC

Donald 3 12 -4 17 4 2 8-2-1 34 3rd RC

Molinari 1 16 -4 14 1 18 3 0.5 0-2-1 30 2nd RC

Westwood -9 18 3 12 -3 16 4 2 16-11-6 39 7th RC

Colsaerts 1 17 -4 18 1 16 4 1 29 Rookie CP

Hanson -5 14 -1 18 2 0 1-2-0 34 2nd RC

Lawrie -4 18 -6 15 3 1 3-1-0 43 2nd RC

CP's = Colsaerts better than his score. Other CP (Poulter) a star.

[Euler]

The market

From a trading perspective there are many markets but the main market is, obviously, the winner market. You can pick either side to win or the whole tournament could end up even. Volume on this market has risen from £12m in 2004 to £21m in 2012.

The odds

The miracle at Medina was the most spectacular trading market yet on this tournament and the US traded as low as 1.06, Europe at minimum odds and the Tie 1.12; it was amazing. You must google that Ryder cup for a real sense of the drama. If you had laid each at their lowest point just once you would have returned nearly 300% on your stake.

Obviously closer tournaments produce better trading conditions but past prices before the off in past haven't been great guides for how the tournament will play out. The favourites since 2004 have started at 1.67, 1.96, 2.07, 1.62, 1.90 and this year 1.74. There has been little correlation so far, in Betfair's history, between SP and the winning margin of either side. Since 1985 there have been two 9 point wins but everything else has been much tighter, 71% of competitions have finished within 3 points or less. So it would seem sensible to point to another close contest.

In the post war period there have only been two ties, once in 1969 and again twenty years late. Maybe the next will be in 2019, LOL? But that only correlates to a 5% chance or odds of 20. The tie is currently at 13. Curiously for something that doesn't happen very often the tie has shortened quite a bit in play over the years. In 2004 and 2006 when Europe ran away with the tournament it hardly shortened at all. But subsequent years is has touched 6 & 4's respectively before the drama at Medina when it looked like a tie was quite likely. So if we expect a tight result then the draw will certainly shorten. For this to happen we need the US to get a strong start.

In the exchanges history backing Europe has been a slam dunk, but that's no surprise at they have won it four out of five times since decent records began in 2004. But it's interesting to note that all prices have generally shorted. But thanks to the how tight things get prices have also drifted a lot as well.

Sometimes it's better to look to exceptions for guidance. In 2004 Europe drifted from 3.10 to 3.65 on the way to thumping the US and a year later when repeating that feat they drifted from 1.96 to 2.14. Basically it seems whatever trading position you take at the off it will pay to some extent, but again it's how competitive the competition is that will determine the size of the swing. If you want to take a lower risk position you may want to lay the draw (tie). Previous years this fly arounds all over the place as we near the end and it's likely to produce several chances of a pay off.

But probably the most sensible strategy over all is to lay Europe at odds on near the start. If the US come into the competition at some point their odds will also short to odds on and you can trade out by laying them for a profit overall. The underlying premise is that if you lay two things under two, you are guaranteed a profit. You can then use that profit to do whatever you want through the rest of the tournament.

The teams

The absence of Tiger Woods may actually be a help to the US this time round. There has always been this underlying competitive tension in the US team and that will be absent this year. Matchplay gold such as the Ryder cup is definitely a team event and Europe has benefited from the sense of camaraderie.

Golf is a game of confidence as much as skill and therefore players in form will do well and the pairings will need to reflect this dynamic, it's going to be interesting to see how the captains select the players.

In form for the US in descending order Fowler, Furyk, Reed, Walker, Bradley, Mahan; for Europe, Dubuisson, McIlroy, Donaldson, Garcia, Stenson, McDowell, Rose.

Out of form for the US, Mickleson, Watson, Kuchar, Johnson, Simpson, Spieth; For Europe Westwood, Gallacher, Bjorn, Poulter, Kaymer.

After making his first appearance in 1997 I reckon this will be last for Westwood. His vital stats are in decline this year and masked only by a good performance on when putting. Poulter hasn't had a great season but his performance in the Ryder cup has been epic so it will be interesting to see how he performs.

You will notice Europe are slightly better off in that mix and that is reflected in their lower starting price, as is home advantage. US players play worse on Ryder cup tournaments played in Europe, probably because none of them player here regularly. But the opposite is true for Europeans as some do play on the US tour. While we have a small sample set for the Ryder cup this does appear to be a characteristic.

So there is lots going for the European's, but they have some baggage in the mix, but so do the US as well! Home advantage will probably see the Europeans through, but I'd imagine the US with Watson at the helm will put up a good fight, looking to correct their poor recent record.

[Euler]

Morning four ball ratings

26-09-2014 - Morning four balls.png

[BJGardner]

Thanks for replies, lets hope for a close contest.

How are the fourball ratings arrived at?

[Euler]

I've rated each player and then cross reference them to produce an overall rating. Positive values favour Europe.

[Euler]

[Euler]

26-09-2014 - Afternoon foursomes.png

[Euler]

27-09-2014 - Morning four balls.png

[Euler]

Some fabulous golf this morning

[Euler]

Keeps on coming

Poulter holes brilliant chip http://bbc.in/1rl1Uej

[Euler]

27-09-2014 - Afternoon foursomes.png

[woodhousejj]

To come up with the overall rating - you then add the diagonal between the players (both diagonals add to the same)and divide by 2.

[Euler]

The number on the right bottom is the overall rating.

Basically I'm looking at stroke advantage between players then averaging them out to indicate where I think the advantage is. I thought this would work well in groups, not so sure about the singles.