Dutch Runners with Draw Bias Guardian Automation Bot

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Dallas
Posts: 5597
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:11 pm

This is a basic Guardian automation rule for use on the flat horse racing markets.

With many course's having a degree of draw bias (where certain stall numbers produce more of the winners than others) it makes sence to try and exploit this.

This bot will Dutch each runner drawn in stalls 1-4 if the race distance is less than 8F (1mile) and there is more than 7 runners for a book% of £25.

One way to find if a flat course has a draw bias and for which distance's is by using the Front runner Pacecards.com site which Bet Angel has recently teamed up with.
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2016/03 ... ree-trial/

For example Kempton AW 5F,6F & 7F races all have a strong bias for horses running from low numbered stalls and far more winners come from these than the higher ones.

To use the file just click on the Dutch Runners with Draw Bias.Baf attachment link below and this will download it to your computer, then with guardian open on the "Automation" tab click "Import a Rules File" as shown in the image, once imported it will now appear in the drop down box just above, you can now apply it to any markets you have added into guardian.

The stake size as with all other aspects of this file can be edited very easily by clicking on "Edit Rules File" then click on the "General, Parameters & Conditions" tab and change to whatever you require.

For further information and to see a video of this rule in action please see the following video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgOdakQpfP0&t=115s

With any automation bot always run in practice mode first to ensure everything is working fine, and repeat this each time you make any changes

To see a video tutorial on how to download and import an automation file into your Bet Angel please see this link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7Im4pj683g
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Laugro1968
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm

Sun Oct 30, 2016 11:46 pm

Hello Dallas,

This is my first post in this forum (and hopefully not my last one).
First, I would like to thank you (and many others) for assisting newbies like me, giving us a starting point and directions with regards to automation and a deeper understanding of the markets (to the best of our abilities).

Taking into account that draw bias is the best kept secret everybody knows about and acknowledging market efficiency, do you think it still carries value? Wouldn't it already be included in the relevant quotes?

Best regards,

Laurent

PS: A secret is something you tell just one person at a time.

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 5597
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:11 pm

It maybe factored in come post time if your looking for a straight bet as the market is very efficient but if its a trading oppertunity then there will still be ways it can still be used.

P.S The best kept ones are those you tell no one ;)

Laugro1968
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm

Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:35 am

Thank you for your quick reply!
If you don't mind asking you two more questions:

1- Is automation faster than excel when it comes down to go through the conditions, triggering bets, cancels and/or stops?
2- Is there a way to automate greening up on a book % or using reversed prices?

Thank you,

Laurent

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Dallas
Posts: 5597
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:37 am

Laugro1968 wrote:Thank you for your quick reply!
If you don't mind asking you two more questions:

1- Is automation faster than excel when it comes down to go through the conditions, triggering bets, cancels and/or stops?
2- Is there a way to automate greening up on a book % or using reversed prices?

Thank you,

Laurent
Yes guardians advanced automation is slightly faster than excel and also places less load on your comp.

There is no option to do either yet but the 'Reverse Grenn' has been suggested by several users to be added in a future update, you could add your support here
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=11107

Krystian
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:50 am

Sat Nov 12, 2016 2:08 am

Dallas wrote:
For example Kempton AW 5F,6F & 7F races all have a strong bias for horses running from low numbered stalls and far more winners come from these than the higher ones.

Where can i get more info about this ??? Where else ???

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 5597
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Sat Nov 12, 2016 10:31 am

Krystian wrote:Where can i get more info about this ??? Where else ???
There is a number of sites that will give you this, just do a search in google for something like 'stall draw bias'

http://drawbias.com/

Krystian
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:50 am

Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:06 am

One more thing can i use this bot to any 4 runer race ???

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Dallas
Posts: 5597
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:09 am

Krystian wrote:One more thing can i use this bot to any 4 runer race ???
Its set to will Dutch stalls 1-4 if the race distance is less than 8F (1mile) and there is more than 7 runners

But you can edit or remove parts you want

Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 359
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:55 am

Morning all,
A recent post or automation by the legend Dallas got me thinking.
The draw bias on the drawbias website only includes 3yo+ handicaps from the past year or so, however if a draw bias exists on tracks, the bias will apply to all age groups, and all grades of races. A 2yo in a nursery drawn 8 faces the same bias as a 10yo handicapper drawn 8 on the same track over the same distance if a bias exists.

So I did some number crunching to see how it turns out on Kempton AW as they have a regular 5, 6 and 7f run, then compared smaller fields against bigger fields i.e. 6 runners or less v 7 or more.
I used 50 races as a minimum for my views.

All runners Kemp 5f: 1,2,6 bias confirmed in my opinion
All runners Kemp 6f: 1,2,3 bias confirmed in my opinion
All runners Kemp 7f: More of a spread but low drawn is definitely confirmed

Distances:
5f - 6 or less runners: Definite bias against stall 1
5f – 7 or more runners: Definite bias towards stalls 1,2,6
6f – 6 or less runners: 1,2,3 bias, 7 has a good rate though although under 50 race limit.
6f – 7 or more runners: Descending rates from 1 downwards, 6 does break the trend though.
7f – 6 or less runners: Definite bias against stall 1 compared to 2,3,4 and 5
7f – 7 or more runners: Stall 7 or less has a slight advantage, but the winners spread is huge, lower draw is definitely an advantage.
To conclude, low draw bias at Kempton on sprints seems pretty much confirmed in my view.
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