US Masters 2017

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ShaunWhite
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Euler wrote:
Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:46 am
Top 20

Jordan Spieth - 8.8 to 9.4 : -£0.64
Rory McIlroy - 8.6 to 14 : -£3.86
Dustin Johnson - 10 to 1000 : -£9.90
Jason Day - 20 to 420 : -£9.52
Rickie Fowler - 23 to 4.9 : £36.94
Hideki Matsuyama - 24 to 50 : -£5.20
Justin Rose - 27 to 14.5 : £8.62
Jon Rahm - 30 to 16 : £8.75
Phil Mickelson - 34 to 28 : £2.14
Henrik Stenson - 36 to 1000 : -£9.64
Adam Scott - 42 to 26 : £6.15
Justin Thomas - 46 to 1000 : -£9.54
Sergio Garcia - 50 to 7.4 : £57.57
Paul Casey - 50 to 200 : -£7.50
Louis Oosthuizen - 48 to 470 : -£8.98
Bubba Watson - 60 to 1000 : -£9.40
Marc Leishman - 55 to 260 : -£7.88
Brandt Snedeker - 60 to 1000 : -£9.40
Tyrrell Hatton - 75 to 1000 : -£9.25
Daniel Berger - 85 to 1000 : -£9.15
Lee Westwood - 95 to 270 : -£6.48
All those individual figures show a small profit of £3.83, but when taken as a whole the Top20 moved out from 78.61% (1.27) to 76.67% (1.3)
It's like a mathmatical optical illusion, counter-intuitive but true.
weemac
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The above results are measured as Back to Lay, so the profit of £3.83 disappears when you rectify the mis-calculation of the players whose odds went to 1000. The loss is £10 in each case, since those odds are not available to lay, and if back odds are being used to calculate all bets (both backs and lays), then the above slides into loss because you can't assume you'd be able to lay your original backs at the current back odds.
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Euler
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It was just an FYI, nothing more than that. The numbers put some context into, but not necessarily the correct one depending on what you are doing.
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gstar1975
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Lay Garcia 2.20 on 4th whole thru to 8th? Back Hoffman after hole 8?
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Euler
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I think the interaction between Rose and Garcia could produce a special finish, hope so.
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Euler
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Shaping up to a tight finish
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Euler
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Spieth finds the water again on the 12th
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gstar1975
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gstar1975 wrote:
Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:54 pm
Lay Garcia 2.20 on 4th whole thru to 8th? Back Hoffman after hole 8?
working out nicely holding position
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gstar1975
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Garcia doing a Ray Mears in the woods
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gstar1975
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Garcia's Caddy's number 89 is the same as the winner of last years tournament. Surely it can't happen again?
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Euler
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That final day pairing worked really well and emotional scenes for Garcia at the end. I think most people were rooting for Garcia to final get a major. Enjoyed that.
LinusP
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Euler
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Thanks for sharing.

I had a look at some data today and noticed the favouritism changed hands 13 times in the final 45 minutes.

Just rewatched the final few holes and it has to be the best masters final round I've watched and such an emotional finish.
roger speakout
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enjoyed trading this market., plus I was ahead profits wise, will go stronger the next big tournament.
domcaz
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Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:47 pm

I didn't enjoy trading this at all! After day 1 I was £50 down, got it back to +£7 on day 2, down again after day 3 and then kept backing the wrong man on the last 9 holes!! Sergios bogeys at Amen Corner and Justin's birdies at 13 and 14 came at exactly the wrong moments for me!!

I took a punt on Sergio winning the playoff which saved me losing a lot more, but otherwise I found it really tough to trade.

Also got really frustrated by delay on the TV. Watching the odds move 5-10 seconds before putts dropped or missed was most annoying!

So happy for Sergio though. Totally deserved and overdue.
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