Other markets : Tour de France 2107

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sionascaig
Posts: 169
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:08 am

In my ongoing quest to "think like a trader" I thought it might be worth while noting some observations on this race as it progress's and hopefully others will join in with some constructive criticism....

So whats the opportunity?

- It's a very long race, lasting 3 weeks & extremely physically demanding
- The favourite is very dependent on factors that are outwith his control including: illness, team strength / support, crashes
- One mistake (misses an important break, burns out on a climb, cycles into a bollard or stationary police motor cycle!) could see a significant change in price
- The favourite is now odds on (Froome at 1.92ish this morning)

==> so there is an opportunity to lay the favourite and trade out over the next couple of weeks in the expectation that price will go up at some point?

==> and down side is that Froome continues to beat market expectations and/or his rivals drop off one by one?

However

- the market is quite weak
- no obvious challenger to Froome
- wouldn't be surprised if the price comes in further if he continues to consolidate his position during the sprint stages like today which has a 2km straight run in for the sprinters

==> So maybe best to hold off today & hope price comes in further?

Thoughts?

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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:27 am

Well Sky certainly performed better than most anticipated

I'm trying too see where the competition comes from. Quintana's tour is already up the creak, with his key domestique out. & Porte, meh, like he said his interview "petrified" of coming off the bike yesterday. Can a GT contender really afford to think like that? You need to take big risks to win the big races. Pro cycling, the most dangerous sport in the world!

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ruthlessimon
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Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:17 pm

Fair play to Sagan, unclip @1000W+ & still win! handling machine :o

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Dallas
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Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:30 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:17 pm
Fair play to Sagan, unclip @1000W+ & still win! handling machine :o
I do love his he finishing antics, most memorable for me was a few years ago when he wheeled the last 50m over the line to win a mountain top finish :D

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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:39 pm

Dallas wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:30 pm
I do love his he finishing antics
& his podium antics, especially when he comes 2nd :twisted:
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Dallas
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Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:56 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:39 pm
Dallas wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:30 pm
I do love his he finishing antics
& his podium antics, especially when he comes 2nd :twisted:
I never seen that one :D

sionascaig
Posts: 169
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:08 pm

And in a more shy & retiring mode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYUZIW0kEPM

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ruthlessimon
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Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:14 pm

Gutted for Cav :( looked bad!!

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Dallas
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Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:33 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:14 pm
Gutted for Cav :( looked bad!!
Dallas wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:30 pm
ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:17 pm
Fair play to Sagan, unclip @1000W+ & still win! handling machine :o
I do love his he finishing antics, most memorable for me was a few years ago when he wheeled the last 50m over the line to win a mountain top finish :D
Ironic that i posted that just 24hrs previous - for many this will now become his most memorable finish just not for the right reasons

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ruthlessimon
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Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:30 pm

Clearly Kittel! :?
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