Anyone tried trading this market before? Currently £300k matched & with 3 weeks to go the fav is 2.5ish atm.
A lot can happen in that time & not all of it in the cyclists control: illness, injury, crashes... Think I'll try a small lay on fav & see what happens...
Tour de France 2107
-
- Posts: 1074
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
2017 might be a better proposition though !
I feel exactly the same way I want him to win but I don't want it to be a walk over. I don't think he has won any races so far this year, and I read there were rumours circulating about him having a back injury. Maybe the TT today might give some indication as to his current form.
He certainly does not appear in the same form as recent years which seemed to be reinforced by his performance criterium du dauphine, but its hard to tell sometimes with all the cloak and dagger stuff that goes on.Bluesky wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:40 pmI feel exactly the same way I want him to win but I don't want it to be a walk over. I don't think he has won any races so far this year, and I read there were rumours circulating about him having a back injury. Maybe the TT today might give some indication as to his current form.
As you say we should get a truer idea off his TT today.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Usually the forum takes the top right spot, not today
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 1074
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
Interesting comment made during the race: 10ish stages will be sprint finishes & a break between the mountain stages so should make it a lot harder for Froome to dominate (or any GC contender)...
Couldn't really have got off to a better start for sky though!
Volume matched over day 1 was around £40k...
Couldn't really have got off to a better start for sky though!
Volume matched over day 1 was around £40k...
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Just noticed. the bikes on show today were very vintage 2017, not quite the 2107 2kg standard
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Made even better by beating the German fav on home soilsionascaig wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2017 7:23 pm
Couldn't really have got off to a better start for sky though!
-
- Posts: 1074
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
In my ongoing quest to "think like a trader" I thought it might be worth while noting some observations on this race as it progress's and hopefully others will join in with some constructive criticism....
So whats the opportunity?
- It's a very long race, lasting 3 weeks & extremely physically demanding
- The favourite is very dependent on factors that are outwith his control including: illness, team strength / support, crashes
- One mistake (misses an important break, burns out on a climb, cycles into a bollard or stationary police motor cycle!) could see a significant change in price
- The favourite is now odds on (Froome at 1.92ish this morning)
==> so there is an opportunity to lay the favourite and trade out over the next couple of weeks in the expectation that price will go up at some point?
==> and down side is that Froome continues to beat market expectations and/or his rivals drop off one by one?
However
- the market is quite weak
- no obvious challenger to Froome
- wouldn't be surprised if the price comes in further if he continues to consolidate his position during the sprint stages like today which has a 2km straight run in for the sprinters
==> So maybe best to hold off today & hope price comes in further?
Thoughts?
So whats the opportunity?
- It's a very long race, lasting 3 weeks & extremely physically demanding
- The favourite is very dependent on factors that are outwith his control including: illness, team strength / support, crashes
- One mistake (misses an important break, burns out on a climb, cycles into a bollard or stationary police motor cycle!) could see a significant change in price
- The favourite is now odds on (Froome at 1.92ish this morning)
==> so there is an opportunity to lay the favourite and trade out over the next couple of weeks in the expectation that price will go up at some point?
==> and down side is that Froome continues to beat market expectations and/or his rivals drop off one by one?
However
- the market is quite weak
- no obvious challenger to Froome
- wouldn't be surprised if the price comes in further if he continues to consolidate his position during the sprint stages like today which has a 2km straight run in for the sprinters
==> So maybe best to hold off today & hope price comes in further?
Thoughts?
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Well Sky certainly performed better than most anticipated
I'm trying too see where the competition comes from. Quintana's tour is already up the creak, with his key domestique out. & Porte, meh, like he said his interview "petrified" of coming off the bike yesterday. Can a GT contender really afford to think like that? You need to take big risks to win the big races. Pro cycling, the most dangerous sport in the world!
I'm trying too see where the competition comes from. Quintana's tour is already up the creak, with his key domestique out. & Porte, meh, like he said his interview "petrified" of coming off the bike yesterday. Can a GT contender really afford to think like that? You need to take big risks to win the big races. Pro cycling, the most dangerous sport in the world!
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Fair play to Sagan, unclip @1000W+ & still win! handling machine
I do love his he finishing antics, most memorable for me was a few years ago when he wheeled the last 50m over the line to win a mountain top finishruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:17 pmFair play to Sagan, unclip @1000W+ & still win! handling machine
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm