Admission time, and a question or two :(
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stueytrader
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Been some good suggestions I've already taken from this thread for specific things to add to my day/experience while trading (Le Tiss' for example). It's a positive process for me and my trading so far, and I hope for anyone else interested.
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Omnishambles
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:36 pm
Hi. New to the forum as a poster, but I've been following this with interest in the last couple of days and I kind of feel compelled to weigh in for some reason.
As somebody that is about to take the plunge into full time next month, I think I can offer some good general advice that has worked for me. As a caveat, this is not unique advice by any stretch and has almost certainly been covered before. Also, I don’t mean this to be condescending or patronising; I apologise in advance if it is.
I'm going to start off with a massive and apparently unhelpful cliche, We get what we want out of the markets.
This, for me, is one of the most profound concepts to grasp as a trader. It has multiple layers and it must be addressed if you're be to successful long-term. The financial trading books deal with this subject better than anything else I've found, and top of my list would be the Market Wizards series. If I had acted upon this advice years ago I would have saved myself a lot of pain and a lot of money, but, at the time, to be told that my losing was a reflection of what I wanted out of trading was like a kick in the guts, and was obviously pseudo-psychology nonsense....
For me, my motivations were simple: to quit my 9-5 office job and work for myself. I love horse racing, I love gambling for money in all of its forms, and I saw pre-race trading as an excellent way to quit the grind and maintain my standard of living. The problem I had was that I earned a high salary and I needed to replace that monthly salary with an equivalent amount (or so I thought), and so every loss I took in the pre-race markets, in my mind, took me further away from that goal of quitting the 9-5. It took me a long time, but eventually I realised the losses in themselves didn’t bother me at all, it was the implications of the losses that was killing me i.e. I’ll never be good enough to quit my job.
After dozens of bankrolls and much soul-searching, and to cut a long story short; I gave up the ghost of pre-race trading, and I've never been happier or more successful. I simply wasn't suited to it mentally and I came to realise that I actually didn’t enjoy it either. It was just vanity and showing off; I wanted to be seen to be a pre-race trader, I didn’t actually want to be one. I was sabotaging myself because my sub-conscious knew I didn’t like price action trading.
Others have said this more succinctly and more brutally in earlier replies, and they are absolutely right. Certainly in my case, anyway, but that doesn’t mean we’re out of the game!
Nowadays I pretty much only trade in-play horses and tennis, and, as I say, without the mental drag factor of pre-race, I’m doing better than I ever could have imagined. I’m a punter at heart, so I like to do my research and back my opinion – it’s who I am, but it’s not part of the pre-race game (or not to any significant degree).
Anyway, I hope that helps in some way.
As for specific advice:
- Do a ‘what if’ analysis on your P&L e.g. adjust all losses over 2% to 2%, This way you get see what would have happened if you’d been disciplined. The transformation you see from loser to winner when adjusting losses to a hard stop is astounding…
- Never chase an entry up the ladder (or down). Set a hard limit e.g. if it goes more than 2-3 ticks in the way you thought, just accept you’ve missed a winner - only the losers get on now.
- Describe the situation out loud to yourself. Where is the matched volume? Where is it trading now. What will be the trigger that causes you enter a trade? Then watch and only enter when what you predicted actually happens.
- Make a physical note every time you make a rash entry or a mistake. When it’s in front of you, it’s hard to justify carrying on making half a dozen mistakes per race.
- Practice taking controlled losses. Learn to derive pleasure from a controlled loss.
- Learn to trust your instincts and intuition – trust that over what you see in front of your own eyes (often you’re seeing what you want to see).
- Scratch a million times more than you are now.
- The markets change all time; look at your trade execution. You might be getting it totally right but losing because of poor execution. It’s the whipsaws that crush aspiring pre-race traders, in my opinion, learn how to overcome them…
- There’s a market for every style of trading, but there isn’t a trading style for every market.
- Only money moves the markets – go with the money. For example, I have a preference for laying, so when a horse is getting backed off the boards I’m messing about trying to catch a horse going over the crossover and getting whipsawed instead of participating in a massive real money driven move.
Easier said than done, eh. I didn’t manage it.
Good luck!
As somebody that is about to take the plunge into full time next month, I think I can offer some good general advice that has worked for me. As a caveat, this is not unique advice by any stretch and has almost certainly been covered before. Also, I don’t mean this to be condescending or patronising; I apologise in advance if it is.
I'm going to start off with a massive and apparently unhelpful cliche, We get what we want out of the markets.
This, for me, is one of the most profound concepts to grasp as a trader. It has multiple layers and it must be addressed if you're be to successful long-term. The financial trading books deal with this subject better than anything else I've found, and top of my list would be the Market Wizards series. If I had acted upon this advice years ago I would have saved myself a lot of pain and a lot of money, but, at the time, to be told that my losing was a reflection of what I wanted out of trading was like a kick in the guts, and was obviously pseudo-psychology nonsense....
For me, my motivations were simple: to quit my 9-5 office job and work for myself. I love horse racing, I love gambling for money in all of its forms, and I saw pre-race trading as an excellent way to quit the grind and maintain my standard of living. The problem I had was that I earned a high salary and I needed to replace that monthly salary with an equivalent amount (or so I thought), and so every loss I took in the pre-race markets, in my mind, took me further away from that goal of quitting the 9-5. It took me a long time, but eventually I realised the losses in themselves didn’t bother me at all, it was the implications of the losses that was killing me i.e. I’ll never be good enough to quit my job.
After dozens of bankrolls and much soul-searching, and to cut a long story short; I gave up the ghost of pre-race trading, and I've never been happier or more successful. I simply wasn't suited to it mentally and I came to realise that I actually didn’t enjoy it either. It was just vanity and showing off; I wanted to be seen to be a pre-race trader, I didn’t actually want to be one. I was sabotaging myself because my sub-conscious knew I didn’t like price action trading.
Others have said this more succinctly and more brutally in earlier replies, and they are absolutely right. Certainly in my case, anyway, but that doesn’t mean we’re out of the game!
Nowadays I pretty much only trade in-play horses and tennis, and, as I say, without the mental drag factor of pre-race, I’m doing better than I ever could have imagined. I’m a punter at heart, so I like to do my research and back my opinion – it’s who I am, but it’s not part of the pre-race game (or not to any significant degree).
Anyway, I hope that helps in some way.
As for specific advice:
- Do a ‘what if’ analysis on your P&L e.g. adjust all losses over 2% to 2%, This way you get see what would have happened if you’d been disciplined. The transformation you see from loser to winner when adjusting losses to a hard stop is astounding…
- Never chase an entry up the ladder (or down). Set a hard limit e.g. if it goes more than 2-3 ticks in the way you thought, just accept you’ve missed a winner - only the losers get on now.
- Describe the situation out loud to yourself. Where is the matched volume? Where is it trading now. What will be the trigger that causes you enter a trade? Then watch and only enter when what you predicted actually happens.
- Make a physical note every time you make a rash entry or a mistake. When it’s in front of you, it’s hard to justify carrying on making half a dozen mistakes per race.
- Practice taking controlled losses. Learn to derive pleasure from a controlled loss.
- Learn to trust your instincts and intuition – trust that over what you see in front of your own eyes (often you’re seeing what you want to see).
- Scratch a million times more than you are now.
- The markets change all time; look at your trade execution. You might be getting it totally right but losing because of poor execution. It’s the whipsaws that crush aspiring pre-race traders, in my opinion, learn how to overcome them…
- There’s a market for every style of trading, but there isn’t a trading style for every market.
- Only money moves the markets – go with the money. For example, I have a preference for laying, so when a horse is getting backed off the boards I’m messing about trying to catch a horse going over the crossover and getting whipsawed instead of participating in a massive real money driven move.
Easier said than done, eh. I didn’t manage it.
Good luck!
As you might have realized already, almost none of the long time pro-traders post advices here .
A zero-sum game requires losers to feed winners and it is all about if you can stand in the winners side.. Small or big profits , does not matter, you gotta find your margin and maintain it. Keep silent and enjoy while it lasts. If the income is enough for a living, you can go pro, but never guarantees the upcoming days. Gotta improve it too as the days go on..
My 5 cents on the self sabotage thing: Been there done that. Still doing it when the motivation is not present.. I was never a pre-race trader, never had success on horse race trading either.. But I am a full time trader.
See : its possible.
Dont fall into the trap that sports trading is all about horses.. Its just an illusion..
Trading careers are built upon the mistakes, learn from them and you paid yourself a course. ROI should pay you off in the long term.
A zero-sum game requires losers to feed winners and it is all about if you can stand in the winners side.. Small or big profits , does not matter, you gotta find your margin and maintain it. Keep silent and enjoy while it lasts. If the income is enough for a living, you can go pro, but never guarantees the upcoming days. Gotta improve it too as the days go on..
My 5 cents on the self sabotage thing: Been there done that. Still doing it when the motivation is not present.. I was never a pre-race trader, never had success on horse race trading either.. But I am a full time trader.
See : its possible.
Dont fall into the trap that sports trading is all about horses.. Its just an illusion..
Trading careers are built upon the mistakes, learn from them and you paid yourself a course. ROI should pay you off in the long term.
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stueytrader
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Nowadays I pretty much only trade in-play horses and tennis, and, as I say, without the mental drag factor of pre-race, I’m doing better than I ever could have imagined. I’m a punter at heart, so I like to do my research and back my opinion – it’s who I am, but it’s not part of the pre-race game (or not to any significant degree).
That part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).
That part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).
class 6 on a dreary wednesday night at wolves, kempton etc, horses are not that special cost 2 bob, dubious form (probably not worth knowing) never gonna be much, attracts low volumes of money, how would you expect the market to behave?stueytrader wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:13 amThat part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).
on the other hand group 1 at ascot, cheltenham, curragh wherever, on a sunny saturday afternoon. horses top of the tree cost silly money, form and breeding probably well know and proven, attracts large volumes, how would you expect to the market to behave?
stueytrader wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:13 amNowadays I pretty much only trade in-play horses and tennis, and, as I say, without the mental drag factor of pre-race, I’m doing better than I ever could have imagined. I’m a punter at heart, so I like to do my research and back my opinion – it’s who I am, but it’s not part of the pre-race game (or not to any significant degree).
That part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).
[/quote
First of all its primarily a Horses form and it's connections,Stable, Jockey etc which sets the initial tissue price, and subsequently many factors influence any fluctuations
Do you need to know these factors to trade . Well no , but it can give you that "edge " in many instances
If your just backing or laying horses then yes it vital that you understand form and a myriad of other factors in my opinion .
The way markets are formed has changed over the years, in the old days the "tissue odds would be priced up the night before , but now bookmakers manage their liabilities and react to market moves etc on the exchanges, and I suspect Betfair is now the main source of reference for most Bookmakers.
But it is not always supply and demand which affects a horses price
But a horses form ( course, going , draw, trainer/jockey, class etc) is still the main basis for the initial prices. And if you do your research you can predict certain market moves .For example
The recent soft ground has resulted in many horses with no recent form , but with "back form "showing a preference for soft/ heavy ground being shortened in price . And vice versa with firm ground horses ... and if early prices reflect odds based on "good ground" and it rains and the ground changes .. There are many opportunities to catch a price move early
Horses trained by Olly Murphy in recent weeks are nearly always shortened in price . And the odds bear no relation to the horses chances of winning the race
Trainer form can play a big part in a horses odds ( especially with certain trainers )
Draw bias at certain courses result in horses drifting and shortening in price, and often if a change in the going results in a draw bias on the day( based on earlier results ) horses odds change significantly.
If a jockey wins a couple of races on a card . Any later rides often shorten in price . S De Sousa in recent weeks being a classic example .And I think Peter pointed out Ryan Moore At Royal Ascot .
And tipsters like Hugh Taylor and Pricewise invariably affect a horses price .
Horse / jockey combinations , trainer/jockey etc .. there is one northern trained sprinter which has run over 70 times with 12 different jockeys, it has won 8 races . All with same jockey on board !!
Class is another factor which can go unnoticed but greatly affects a horses price .
Cartmel is an interesting course to study re many of the above factors and trainers especially
Of course the depth and strength of the market determines how influential and what movement the above affects a horses price .
There are many more criteria which can influence price movement, and can give you an "edge"
I guess you just have to quantify whether the time and research is worth the return , or whether its case of just "watching he markets.
And as a few have said in here . The less time you spend on here posting , and analysing yourself . The better you will become .. Rather than trying to convince yourself you will succeed . It may sound harsh but the majority of posters like Stueytrader will never succeed and make things sound so complicated. When it isn't .. But do so either for attention , or because there character isn't cut out for trading .
Everything on this thread has been said many times before . Over and over again .. but still gets regurgitated on a regular basis,so with minimum effort you would have found what you think you needed . Without starting another thread
So desist from posting . Do your own thing . Specialise in just the one sport ( horse racing) . Keep it simple , stick to one type if trade . And repeat over and over again till it's instinctive ... Dont kid yourself, if your still posting these sort of questions after over a year . Then trading isn't for you
And most of all enjoy .. trading should help you enjoy life . Not be your life and consume you with all this self analysis !!
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
I'd pretty much agree Halliday, it does seem to be groundhog day on here quite a lot of the time.
That's not to say these type of posts are wasted, I've always believed the people who get the most from the posts are the people actually reading them rather than those posting them. Most people asking the questions are usually too lazy to look for the numerous answers already on the forum and will only take on board things they want to hear or answers that reinforce their own already flawed logic. Anything that may question the logic of their approach usually gets ignored.
That's not to say these type of posts are wasted, I've always believed the people who get the most from the posts are the people actually reading them rather than those posting them. Most people asking the questions are usually too lazy to look for the numerous answers already on the forum and will only take on board things they want to hear or answers that reinforce their own already flawed logic. Anything that may question the logic of their approach usually gets ignored.
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iambic_pentameter
- Posts: 443
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm
Couple of great posts there, Halliday and Spreadbetting.
I know from my own experience that you have to be in the markets day in / day out for everything to sink in.
Reading Halliday's notes was a sign of how far I've come - last year when I started I knew nothing about racing but now as well as my pre-off trading, I'm starting to get involved with in play.
I should stress that the in play trades are based on extensive research like going, jockey, form, watching previous race replays etc. If someone told me 12 months ago that I'd be able to identify potential B2L trades, I'd have laughed at them.
I'm not the most intelligent person in the world but I understand that if you put the effort in, you will get the rewards - case in point, I spend at least an hour a day watching trading related videos.
I know from my own experience that you have to be in the markets day in / day out for everything to sink in.
Reading Halliday's notes was a sign of how far I've come - last year when I started I knew nothing about racing but now as well as my pre-off trading, I'm starting to get involved with in play.
I should stress that the in play trades are based on extensive research like going, jockey, form, watching previous race replays etc. If someone told me 12 months ago that I'd be able to identify potential B2L trades, I'd have laughed at them.
I'm not the most intelligent person in the world but I understand that if you put the effort in, you will get the rewards - case in point, I spend at least an hour a day watching trading related videos.
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stueytrader
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Thanks for all the comments, some good points.
I would just like to add however, that this was posted on the 'Psychology' sub-forum, so I'm not sure why so many are pointing out that we should stop talking about psychology....
I get the point that moaning about tilt etc is 'groundhog' to some extent around here. But this wasn't meant to be a general trading posting, rather a question about how psychology affects our trading. I did purposely post it in THIS section because of that, rather than the general trading sections.
I would just like to add however, that this was posted on the 'Psychology' sub-forum, so I'm not sure why so many are pointing out that we should stop talking about psychology....
I get the point that moaning about tilt etc is 'groundhog' to some extent around here. But this wasn't meant to be a general trading posting, rather a question about how psychology affects our trading. I did purposely post it in THIS section because of that, rather than the general trading sections.
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stueytrader
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
...and I am still interested in how our specific behaviours/approaches/strategies/thoughts/surroundings etc etc influence us during our days in this pursuit we do.
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stueytrader
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Being 'honest' with yourself is pretty huge I agree. It is also a process I find is more applicable/useful when 'offline' (i.e. when we are away from the actual trading day).