Re : Does Scalping work anymore

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PeterLe
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There was a thread sometime ago that was locked for some reason and I cant remember why?
This is the link :-

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=159&hilit=scalping

The Betangel guys ran a series of scalping tests.
Ive recently learnt something new from the in play market and wanted to see how it performed on the pre market, so i set up a simple scalping test today to see how the markets performed against a similar test carried out by one of the betangel guys back in 2011. (See above link for their results)

Anyway, this is the data from today, run on auto:-

Total bet matched 410
Total bets placed but not matched 698 (Clue there :D )
Total Stakes £ 2088.92
Profit after commission £6.47
Profit before commission £7.01 (see betangel comments on rounding in original post)
ROI on Turnover 0.309%
Traded 22 markets 1 Loss (-£3.86), took SP and SP much lower than expected
Lay First, Average lay = £3.06

It should be easy to scale this 20 or 30 times the above stake, so it adds up over the month (£4 - £5K? less PC)

Nothing really to add to this, but just thought it maybe of interest to anyone creating a scalping bot and wondered if it was still possible? Or more interesting, whether anyone has a consistent scalping BOT?

I run various tests most days (in Live mode, on auto), but what surprised me about this one is how similar is is to the original test back in 2011.
It was only one day of testing and could be donw to sheer luck?
Maybe the markets havent changed that much after all?
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Samo154
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I've always struggled scalping, can't do it! And find it boring which did t help. Fair play to people who make it pay I suck at it. Much prefer inplay markets and automation.

Interesting read as always though Peterle! I admire your quest for new ideas, strategies and helpful content you contribute on this forum.

Sam
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Dallas
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Its funny you should bring this up Peterle it was only yesterday morning i was PM'ing another user about this experiment and running random automation stratergies.
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jimibt
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Dallas wrote:Its funny you should bring this up Peterle it was only yesterday morning i was PM'ing another user about this experiment and running random automation stratergies.
this automation strategy is ALWAYS on my back burner and I've had as many promising rules as I have losing rules. The one thing that i've discovered tho is that placing with a tick above or below the target price with a 1 tick offset seems to *clear* the channels best. I've also used Signals (e.g Automation Signal for Soundstrings: runnerpricesignal = -1) to clarify the general directional bias to good effect too. But, random plops seem to also work well :D
PeterLe
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Thanks guys,
Yes I run various strategies most days. its very easy to get a strategy that breaks even, less so with profitable ones.
Im travelling today/tomorrow so not run this today, Ive only run my normal ones, but will def take a closer look next week.
As long as you are not laying at very high odds and visa versa, then you wont win/lose much by testing at random
The more of these you run, the more you get a gut feel for what might work and what wont work.

Regards
Peter
ricardodeano
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PeterLe wrote: Ive recently learnt something new from the in play market and wanted to see how it performed on the pre market
I'm sure I won't get a "here's how to profit using this idea" but thought I'd be cheeky and ask anyway ;)

What did you learn Peter? :D

I think I'll have to revisit this myself as well after seeing those results, great stuff Peter and thanks for the pointers already given.
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marksmeets302
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Or more interesting, whether anyone has a consistent scalping BOT?
I have a scalping bot, but it's far from consistent. It's different in your experiment as it is a bit selective in its markets and price ranges. But there's no telling if I'll end the day in profit on that particular account, not even on a weekly basis (monthly: yes). I'm a bit surprised by your results.. they "feel" stable.
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jimibt
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ricardodeano wrote:
PeterLe wrote: Ive recently learnt something new from the in play market and wanted to see how it performed on the pre market
I'm sure I won't get a "here's how to profit using this idea" but thought I'd be cheeky and ask anyway ;)

What did you learn Peter? :D

I think I'll have to revisit this myself as well after seeing those results, great stuff Peter and thanks for the pointers already given.
Rich - i think that's a very difficult question to pose as there must be a raft of technical details that are difficult to describe. Peter - maybe the best way would be to link in the rule file as that could be easier to understand :lol:
PeterLe
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I built this in excel; Guardian Automation wouldnt have worked for this
I once had a very complicated excel spreadsheet, for the prerace and recently had a eureka moment that could work in the same way. Im a great advocate for the Occam's Razor approach (google this if your not familiar), so i was able to strip out the stuff that was clouding my vision
The main reason I posted really was because how consistent it was, I was a bit surprised
Ive found that it works at its best when two or more are vying for position
Regards
Peter
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jimibt
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PeterLe wrote: Ive found that it works at its best when two or more are vying for position
Regards
Peter
ah yes, the magical ding dong comparison. know where you're coming from ;)
Iron
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I have been very sceptical about one tick scalping for some time.

I understand the theory.

On average, the true price lies somewhere between the spread. Yes, the current price may not be the true price, but over thousands of bets, for every time you're x% above the true price, you'll be x% below the true price, and it will even itself out.

So the principle is that, by offering to the market, you beat the spread and obtain long term backing and laying value (and thereby obtain long term trading profitability).

However, my previous experiences of it have been pretty bad.

I'd long since dismissed the approach, but the spreadsheet in the locked thread on this matter - viewtopic.php?f=2&t=159&start=20 - gave me pause for thought. Those results are very impressive (as are the ones in this thread).

Perhaps I had been too hasty. And perhaps I hadn't used a large enough sample previously, or didn't operate in a sufficiently mechanical way. So I created a simple spreadsheet today that does the following:

- £2 offers on both sides of the book.

- If an offer is taken, I make another offer on the same side of the book.

- If the price moves, repeat the process at the new price (without having more than one offer on either side of the book at any time).

- Green or red up 10 seconds before the off.

In theory, this should work great. Win and little, lose a little, secure small but significant long term edge.

However, using £2 stakes, I lost £7 in my first race and £5 in my second.

Maybe I was just extremely unlucky, maybe the market has changed, or maybe you need a faster internet connection and better computer than I have (I use 0.2 refreshes as my computer doesn't cope well with full stream). Or yes, maybe my approach was flawed.

However, with those kind of losses, which far exceed any losses in the spreadsheet, I'm not going to find out. :)

I hope the above doesn't come across as provocative. I know there are people here who swear by scalping, and I'd be genuinely interested in hearing people's opinions on my experiment.

Jeff

PS LeTiss - before you ask - the answer is 'No'. :lol:
Iron
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PPS Stats for the 2 races in question:

297 bets placed.

£771.71 turnover

£12.68 loss

-1.64% ROI
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Euler
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What were the two races?
Iron
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GB / Ayr 12th Oct / 15:05 1m Hcap

GB / Worc 12th Oct / 15:25 2m Stks NHF
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Euler
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Fav?
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