Taking a price or asking for a price

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ShaunWhite
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Euler wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:52 pm
Tried to lay at 6 but couldn't get filled then, piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing
(I've taken this quote from the Today's Racing thread to one side because it might spark some off topic debate.)

I've often heard this (above) said by you and others, but aren't you ever tempted to take a price rather than make an offer if you're 'pretty sure' of a move? I might be laughed at for saying that but I missed the lesson says it would break a cardinal rule.

Does that 1 tick really make that much difference, especially if you miss a few good moves?
Doesn't your big offer, if anything, cause the market to move away from it, and to get it filled would require a fair amount of money in the wrong direction?
Perhaps it's just that there's a time and a place for one approach over another?.

What am I missing ? I'm guilty of grabbing a price rather than making an offer quite regularly, but the more I see comments like yours the more I think I ought to stop doing it.
dt888
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This is an interesting point. I think it boils down to each individual situation. I must admit I'm probably more of a price taker than a price offerer as if I think something is going to happen I don't want to miss out, but at the same time I'll only chase the price maybe a tick or 2 or wherever I think the value has gone. I'll then say I missed out and wait for the next opportunity. Or on occasions look to get in on a pull back if I think the move is still valid
sionascaig
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Is the amount you want to get matched relevant? Placing £200 on top of £500 is quite different from placing £2.... (from a need to ensure your outs are matched perspective?)...
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marksmeets302
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My take on this is that midpoint is probably the fair price at any given moment. Backing above and laying below should give me an edge. I rarely take a price. Unless I need to get out.
Korattt
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I'm sure I've seen Euler take a price on some of his videos on YT
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Derek27
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The choice all boils down to comparison of the size of bet and money in the market, and whether you think it could get even shorter or is nearing the shortest price it will get.
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ShaunWhite
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Thanks all, it's pretty much as I figured then.

It depends on the situation, the amount of money waiting, and the amount you're trying to get involved with, the amount of noise etc etc. Plus that unquantifiable amount of tension in the spring that's waiting make the price go ping. (Not unlike those plastic 'sucker and spring' frogs you press down...it's going to jump but ..wait for it, wait for it....BOING!)

I think I've said before that trading often feels like fishing, you stare at the float for hours on end and then depending how it starts to move, you either get poised or grab the rod and strike.

Plasitc frogs, fishing...I'm never short of an analogy ;)
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Euler
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Offering a price is slightly net +ve in the long term if you offer to close as well. This is because a demonstrable number of markets will end up exactly where they started. So by implication markets that don't move much its much more beneficial to offer, but fast-moving markets with wider ranges are much better to take. Based on data I got from Betdaq I tend to offer around 80% of the time or so if I remember correctly.
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ruthlessimon
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I think when a price is rotating around fair value, it makes sense to offer. When a price is extended & trading unfair prices, I think it's better to be aggressive.
Iron
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Hi Simon

If a horse steams in from 7 to 4, it might be because of lemming blindly following the crowd.

Or it might be because a syndicate has good reason to believe that the true price is 3 (not because they are corrupt - simply because they know something that isn't widely known).

How do you distinguish between the two?

Jeff
ruthlessimon wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:48 pm
I think when a price is rotating around fair value, it makes sense to offer. When a price is extended & trading unfair prices, I think it's better to be aggressive.
Iron
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Under what circumstances would you not offer?
Euler wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:46 pm
Based on data I got from Betdaq I tend to offer around 80% of the time or so if I remember correctly.
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ruthlessimon
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Ferru123 wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:37 pm
How do you distinguish between the two?
Great question. Which brings me onto two key points, which underpin all my trading:

1. Price risk
2. Information risk

Price risk is the most simple aspect - & everyone is aware of the following. There are 3 main types of swing entry:

1. Pullback (momentum) (stop: turning point)
2. Breakout (momentum) (stop: HVN or entry)
3. Reversal (mean-reversion) (stop: all-time high/low)

Now, here comes the hard bit.

We need to marry up those three strategies to the correct context, the more accurately we can do this, the more profitable we'll be. This is information risk. If we take your example, we need to be trading with the syndicates (momentum) & we need to be fading the lemmings (mean-reversion). Both participants behave differently, have different characteristics, & affect the market differently - although it requires a lot of trial & error to find these snippets of context. In fact, I still make adjustments, & after today I'll review my trades & see if I can refine this further.
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Euler
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Ferru123 wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:37 pm
Under what circumstances would you not offer?
Euler wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:46 pm
Based on data I got from Betdaq I tend to offer around 80% of the time or so if I remember correctly.
When I have a really good idea of direction, even then I'm still likely to offer.
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