Ashes 2017 - 1st test Brisbane

T20, IPL, Test matches or the Ashes, discuss it here.
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megarain
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Thght I would start a thread etc.

Prices 2 days out .. weather f/c, largely pretty good, with maybe odd shower, days 1-4.

Aus 1.81

Eng 3.95

Draw 5.0

Aus record at this ground is stunningly good. The last Ashes game here (2013), Aus won by 381 runs.

(( Just thght I would add series prices ))

Aus 1.48

Eng 4.5

Draw 10
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ZeroCounty
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England team are in pretty good form, so i think the odds for Eng will go down.
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whimsies
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Location: Uk

England last won at the ground in 1986
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megarain
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The toss will be pretty big.

Expect side winning to bat,and see a price decrease of maybe 10%.

I have a book, something like.

Eng - 5x

Draw - 3x

Aus +1.4x

I will maybe try video certain trading phases. It’s fun to play
With new toys.
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megarain
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Almost Xmas !!

Current prices :

Aus 1.77

Eng 4.1

Draw 5.1

Here is a graph, of the 1st 2015 Ashes test (Cardiff), historical data.
ashes2015graph.jpg
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Niko
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If England win the toss and bat and can keep all their wickets for the first hour or so will the Australians start to drift quite sharply??
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megarain
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Yeah, thats prob a fair assessment. I would imagine run line for Eng, would be about 360, .. if they look likely to score more, Aus will drift.

if England collapse, Aus price will contract.
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Niko
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Cherry! !

Is there a data source for expected run rates or is it just from experience of knowing teams, pitch, conditions etc??
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megarain
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A v detailed analysis of the series has been done by Daniel Weston (no affiliation).

I paid the £50.

http://www.cricketratings.co.uk/cricket ... data-packs
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Niko
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megarain wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:07 am
A v detailed analysis of the series has been done by Daniel Weston (no affiliation).

I paid the £50.

http://www.cricketratings.co.uk/cricket ... data-packs
Cheers!
phildavies21
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Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:28 pm

Cant imagine Eng will keep there top order for an hour or so with Stoneman and Vince. Infact im expecting some quick Eng wickets before the likes of Root/Baristow and Ali level things back out again.
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megarain
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T minus 90 mins ..

Aus 1,76 was up to 1.82 earlier in the day

Eng 4.1

Draw 5.2

£1.887m traded
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Niko
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Did anybody else have a back the draw, lay Australia strategy??
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mcgoo
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No, but hope you got out at right time.Drove past the Gabba when the Draw was around 2.60.Weather was humid as hell.Missed the opportunity..can't trade and drive. :) Aah well , next time :D
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megarain
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Day 1 graphs
ashes2017day1grphs.jpg
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